Thursday, December 31, 2009

Racing 31st December

Echuca r7 n2 Sivadio, 1.5 units to win
Drops in class here and its form prior to last start failure in city is good for this. Should be sitting outside leader or with trail behind the first two. In good stable with promising apprentice Jack Hill on board. Slight distance query but there is probably a query on the rest of them as well. Danger to come from the Steve Richards trained Flying Elle who could come home in a rush if there is abundant speed on. However against her is that Sivadio comprehensively beat her two starts back, she is rising 500m in distance and the weather here in Victoria is stinking hot today (about 38 degrees celcius predicted at Echuca) which is always a minus for mares.

Unplaced @ $10
Never got near them and I got the race completely wrong.....

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Racing 26th December

Firstly, Merry Xmas to all.
Secondly, sorry for the lack of selections the past week and a bit. Had a fair bit on and just haven't had any time to do any serious work.

Anyway back to business.

Caulfield r7 n9 Its Prince, 2 units e/w
Racing very consistently and back to the more suitable tighter turning track here. Don't really see much pace to speak of and the main dangers have a few things against. Extremely well weighted with a good jockey on board. Almost an each way special here.
3rd @ $8.00
Got the gun run in front but run down once again by Sadalbari who seems to have its measure. However the each way bet gave us a small profit.

Caulfield r8 n1 Flagstaff, 1 unit to win
Exceptional win in quick time last start - albeit in much weaker company. Can see it siitting in the first 4 and is one of those horses that maintains form. Interestingly is the only horse Brian Cox has brought to the city from Wodonga today.
Unplaced @ $15
Was a bit lost early and couldn't take up a forward position. Battled on fairly.

Randwick r3 n6 Senhor Da Gama, 2 units to win
Rated terrifically in its city win last start and looks to be a smart horse on the improve. Randwick track and solid speed should suit and can see it running all over the top of them.
Unplaced @ $2.50
Silly bet in hindsight. The rain came down in Sydney however I still decided to go ahead as its from a noted wet track sire. Should have taken note of its previous start in the wet where it was beaten in provincial class. Am happy to stick with this one when it strikes a good track.

Doomben r1 n5 Forbes, 1.5 units to win
Looks to be an up and comer and most of its opponents today are getting on or at the end of their campaign. Smart win last start in good time and whilst it is a bit if a get back horse am happy to risk that today. Also a fan of the Zabeel's who start showing ability as they usually hold it.
1st @ $2.70
Ran on hard to run out a good winner but have the feeling its had enough now.

Monday, December 21, 2009

NBA 21st December

Detroit +7.5 @ $1.91 (sportsbet) for 2 units.
Lost

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Racing 20th December

Hawkesbury r6 n8 Memzair - 1 unit to win
Not normally a 'type' of horse I want to be backing wiith its poor strike rate and get back style however its sectionals at its last 2 starts have been exceptional. Could be a bit of speed on here and if its within striking distance on the corner could overpower them.
3rd @ $6.50
Got, back and ran on. Story of its life I guess.....

NBA 20th December

Philadephia -3.0 @ $1.917 (IAS)
Lost
Bucks -6.0 @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
Lost
Spurs -12.0 @ $1.952 (Pinnacle)
Lost
Suns -10.5 @ $2.00 (Pinnacle)
Won

All for 2 units

Saturday, December 19, 2009

19th December

Won't be posting anything today as have other committments.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

NBA 17th December

Well, we're back on the NBA train again after a short hiatus. Been doing a little experimenting which seems to be working so lets see how we'll go. Of coourse, I am obviously expecting them all to lose now as soon as I publish them.....

Bucks +5.0 @ $1.943 (Pinnacle)
Won
Warriors +5.5 @ $1.965 (Pinnacle)
Lost
Hornets -4.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet)
Won
All for 2 units each

Hooray - we win on the NBA at last....

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Racing 16th December

Wyong r4 n4 Hillstreet - 1.5 units to win
Prepared to forgive last run as it was coming off a slight freshen up and had an apprentice on board which I don't think particularly suits. Should be sitting either outside the leader or leading and has run some good sectionals in the past. If the pace is not furious early could outkick them in the straight. Has Gridesdale on its back this time who is a very competant jockey on the provincial circuit.
Unplaced @ $5.00
Didn't see or hear the race as was in a meeting. Hopefully will get to watch the replay tonight.

Eagle Farm r7 n10 Smugglers Inn - 1.5 units to win
Bold front runner who simply destroyed his rivals last start in exceptionally good time for the cushion track. Up in class here but could be a horse on the improve.
3rd @ $2.70
Heavily backed from $4.50 into $2.70. Don't know if Cassidy quite rode him right. Think horse is a bit one paced and therefore he needs to be able to bowl along in the lead and break the others hearts. Cassidy held him together in front and then tried to outpace them in the straight.
My other theory is that he is a pure Cushion track horse.

Either way he needs to be black booked as that time he ran the previous start was an excellent indicator of a horse with plenty of ability.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Racing 13th December

Moonee Valley r5 n11 Pentoscar - 1.5 units to win.
Lightly raced improving type from good stable. Think there will be a bit of pace on here (strange for a 2500m MV race, I know) and should get a nice run towards the rear. Distance should not be an issue and the $5 early markets appeals.
Unplaced @ $5.00
Ran on hard to finish 4th but was never a realistic hope of winning.

Moonee Valley r7 n1 Belscenica - 2 units to win
Could not have been more impressive last time in Saturday class at this track and meets basically the same or inferior types here. Should be 3rd or 4th in the run and gets in well at the weights after the claim for Maskiell who rides above what he gets off in my opinion.
Unplaced @ $3.50
Big drifter on track. Didn't get the best of runs and I felt that young Maskiell panicked a bit when a few took off around him.

Getting back to the 15% mark again which is a realistic expectation. If I continue to keep that in mind it is far easier to bet in a measured way and not get too upset if a few losses come your way.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Racing 12th December

Morphetville r3 n1 Atlantic Air - 2 units to win
Racing in career best form and meets a very mediocre lot here. Will bowl along in front and in this small field its hard to see anything pestering it. Only concern is its ability to carry weight but looks a strong type and think that it will present no problems.
1st @ $2.10
Got the top fluc with it starting $1.80. Went straight to the front and the race was all over with 1600 to go.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Racing 11th December

Late notice I know.

Moonee Valley r6 n11 Trajet - 1.5 units to win.
Consistent on pacer in form up against some average opposition here. Its no world beater but gets its chance tonight. Definite valuen at the $4 early markets.
Unplaced @ $5.00
Got taken on early but was well beaten.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Racing 10th December

Ipswich r6 n3, Eleven Oysters - 1 unit to win
Has ability but does appear to do plenty of wrong in its races. Better run last start and in good stable that you would hope may have polished up its rough edges. On pacer and I can't see them going super quick early. If it can settle and its head is right has to be hard to beat.
Scratched

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Racing 9th December

Rosehill r4 n6 Onthelookout, 1 unit to win
Not much luck last time in better class than it meets today. Not overly confident as I'm not a fan of the B Joseph stable and the horse is a bit of a get back type and 2nd up. However if it reproduces figures like it did last time it must be hard to beat.
3rd - Backed from $4 to $2.50
Loomed up on the corner but simply gave up in the last 150m. As I said earlier not a fan of the Joseph stable and really should not have backed it at all.

Rosehill r5 n3 Interna, 2 units to win
Heavily backed last start where it didn't enjoy anny favours in running to still run third. Gets 2 kilos off here for Avdulla and this isn't very hard. Gets chance to breakthrough here.
Unplaced @ $3.50
Very disappointing and appeared to have every chance.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Racing 6th December

Cranbourne r5 n3 Viallico - 1.5 units to win
Has been racing against better quality horses than it meets today. Small field will suit as it is an on pacer and has in form jockey L Nolen on board. Seems to be on the improve where as the rest of the field are just mediocre battlers.
1st @ $3.30
Actually started $3.60 in the end so missed the value there. Settled outside the leader, hit the front on the corner and raced away for an easy victory

Wyong r3 n8 Our Boy Lucas - 2 units to win
Impressive win in quick time last start where it broke its maiden. In the highly regarded Joe Pride stable and seems well suited here getting in on the minimum.
1st @ $6.50
Got the best price as I think it SP'd $5.50. Was 4 and 5 wide around the corner and looked all over the winner at the 200. However the favourite who got the easy run made a dive at it but we just held on by the barest of margins. Nice to get a photo go your way but it would have been a travesty if it got beaten in all honesty.

Well up to +18% POT now which is way past my humble expectations when I commenced this. Being a pessimist at heart I keep expecting a massive downturn but it seems to just keep getting better. I know I am doing everything right when it comes to assessing the form so maybe it is the hard work paying dividends.....Just got to keep the head down and not get over confident.

Picking the right race to bet on is key in my opinion and just as important is not betting just for the sake of it. Hence why I don't give out selections every day. Its not that I haven't been bothered that day, its just that nothing has stood out.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Racing December 5th

A fairly uninspiring afternoon and hence only one selection today.

Rosehill r3 n4 Modonna, 2 units to win
Improving speedy type in good stable who should get the gun run here. Rest of the field are run on types and Rosehill typically suits the on pacers. Would not be wanting to take anything less than $3.00 though.
2nd @ $4.00
Led them up and got all the favours but just beaten by a better one on the day.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Australian Open Golf

Steve Marino 1 unit @ $30
Matt Goggin 1 unit @ $28

Whilst I generally don't like betting on golf at this time of year I like these two guys at the value. We need to be looking at guys in the top 10 of betting as the form guide generally holds up for this tournalment and on an extremely tough course its hard to imagine a bolter maintaining consistent form over 4 rounds.

Marino - US PGA form stands up very well in Australia as we saw with Dufner 3 weeks ago in the Masters. Marino has a bit going for him besides just being American though. He was in contention in the British Open earlier this year so obviously the links type of course holds no fears for him. Marino is a very consistent golfer and although he doesn't win out of turn I can see him being in this for a long way.

Goggin - Like Marino was not beaten by much in the British Open this year. Is knocking on the door to win a decent tournalment. Course suits ball strikers and Goggin is probably the best ball striker in the field. The $28 is terrific value in this field as he should probably be 2nd favourite in my opinion.

Both beaten a long way with Marino not even making the cut.

NBA 31st December

Dallas -11.5 @ $1.91 v Philadelphia - 2 Units (Sportsbet)
Won by 2 but thats no good to me.

I'm taking a spell from the NBA for the moment until I get some form back. Getting belted consistently and its hurting the POT %.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Racing November 29th

Wodonga r9 n12 Airways, 1.5 units to win.
Guaranteed speed on here with Intelligencia set to go out hard. Lot to like about Airways last 2 runs and even though its best racing is fresh is still 3rd up and should still be at its peak. Drawn the inside and I can see it 3 back the fence getting a nice trail. $7 into $5 in early markets.
Unplaced @ $4.00
Was always struggling to maintain touch with the tearaway leader and had no sprint left when it counted

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Racing 28th November

Kensington r2 n8 Star Ripper, 2 units to win.
Following up after its very impressive last start performance. Gets in on the minimum here against a moderate bunch of Saturday class stayers. I think he's up to this.
1st @ $4.80
Got off the bit about 600 out and I thought it was gone. However showed plenty of fight to win quite comfortably in the finish. Could be a very good stayer next preparation but think it might have nearly had enough this time in.

Moonee Valley r6 n1 Posadas, 2 units to win
Gutsy sprinter who gave his all last time and just beaten by very good horse. Drawn perfectly, carries weight well and think it will either lead or possy up behind. Danger could be Beltrois first up as it is the unknown quantity.
1st @ $3.00
Got out to $3.30 in the end so am a bit disappointed missing the best fluc. Gutsed it out to win by a neck but never reallly looked like losing.

Moonee Valley r7 n9 Hannahbanana, 1.5 units to win.
The favourite is going to go around unders here as it is a get back type and I don't think inside barriers suit. Hannahbanana appeals as it is the only leader in a small field - factors which I always like. Has the experienced S King on board and the $12 earty market appeals as terrific value.
Unplaced @ $14
Led early but was then taken on. Kicked on the corner and I thought it could go on but the early pressure told and it knocked up in the last 100m. Quite a good run under the circumstances. Favourite was well beaten @ $2.60 for the layers out there.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Racing 27th November

Orange r1 n1 Flogsdream - 2 units to win.
Slight question mark over the trip but other than that has all the others covered on a times and weights basis. Ultra consistent and rarely runs a bad race.
1st @ $1.95
Came over the top of them to run out an easy winner.

Orange r7 n5 Mosseltov - 1.5 units to win
Although the favourite has been racing well, I think its shockingly under the odds considering the class rise and the weight its carrying. Mosseltov has a good 2nd up record and its effort first up was quite impressive. Has a habit of beginning slowly though but if things go its way should be extremely hard to beat here.
3rd @ $7.00
Seemed to have its chances and just not goood enough on the day.

NBA 26th November

Atlanta -3.0 @ $1.92 (IASBET) v Orlando - 2 units

Been monitoring a new theory on NBA lately and its time to put it into practice. Lets see how it goes using real money.
Beaten by about 13 in the end but I'm going to stick with this for the moment. I reckon the NBA has cost me about 15 units so far this season which is not good.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Racing 25th November

Betfair Park r3 n8, Jewel Thief - 1.5 units to win
Tough race but this one is lightly raced, has a good draw and has been running some good times at its only 2 starts. In the powerful Moody stable with leading jockey Luke Nolen on board. $7.00 in the early markets. Too many ticks to ignore.
2nd @ $8.00
Beaten a nose. Winner looks smart but Jewel Thief didn't get too many favours in the straight either.

Warwick Farm r4 n11 Trebbiano - 1 unit to win
Improving type and seems to like drawing inside horses. Can sprint quickly which will suit here as most of the favoured runners are dour backmarkers.
Unplaced @ $7.00
Had the perfect run but just didn't run the trip.

Eagle Farm r5 n11 Coroner - 2 units to win
Drops from Saturday to midweek class here and it was most competitive in strong race last time. Looks to be the only leader and if it can get its own way in front could prove to be too hard to catch. $5.00 in the early markets is big overs in my opinion.
1st @ $5.00
Bounced straight to the front and was never headed. Heavily backed into $4.00 late.

Another nice profitable day which could have been even better with a touch more luck. However can't complain too much. Have just started increasing my wagers in the last week due to my hot form so lets hope it continues until Christmas so the kids get some decent presents !!!!!!

The wife might even get something too.....

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Update

Sorry - no selections in rtecent days.

In Victoria we had a day of record rainfall which has meant that some of the tracks have become rain affected. Since most of the current form is based on firm ground I am loath to bet on a singe wet track day. Tracks are okay today but noting stands out in Sale.

In NSW, they are undergoing a record heat spell for November. Again, horses can behave unpredictably in the heat so would prefer to give that state a miss for a few days until everything settles down there.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Racing November 21

Kembla Grange r4 n5 Scores, 1.5 units to win.
Improving type looking for this trip. Small field should suit and looks to have a good chance in this.
3rd @ $5.50
Led them up but just wasn't good enough.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Racing November 20th

Ararat r4 n5 Bush Music, 1 unit to win
Has a poor strike rate but meets a very average field here and should get all the favours from its good draw. Form has been quite reasonable this time in and the $7 appeals as good value.
Unplaced @ $10. Poor strike rate continues !!!!

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Racing November 18th

Doomben r4 n1 Tightrope, 2 units to win
Looks well suited in this weakish field. Should be a bit of pace on and I will loook for it to come over the top of them. $2.30 in early markets which is about right. Bet above $2.00 or more.
2nd @ $2.50
Was a big drifter on Betfair - started $2.90. Jockey rode it forward today and doubt if that suited.

Doomben r7 n6 Satula, 1 unit to win
Form looks poor but the race could be set up for it. Is capable of running a quick last 600 and if the pace is on as expected could swamp them (well thats the idea anyway....). $10 in early markets.
Unplaced @ $15
Good run. Ran on nicely to be beaten just on two lengths. Didn't seem to get balanced in the straight. Definitely one worth following in the right type of race.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Racing 17th November

Warwick Farm r2 n5 Star Ripper, 2 units to win
Immacuately bred mare who seems to have really come good in recent weeks. Demolished a weak field last start by 5.5 lengths and while this is stronger it is not full of any world beaters either. Gets in on the minimum here, trained by the master of stayers Bart Cummings and ridden by in form jockey P Robl. That will do me.....
1st @ $4.00

Sat outside the leader and bolted in by 3 lengths. Looks a promising galloper and may be one to follow next year.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Racing 16th November

Townsville r6 n10 Black Sequin, 1 unit to win.
Drawn to get a good run here and most of the favoured runners have wide barriers which is no advantage at all on the turning 1630m Townsville circuit. Good performance last time and gets in well at the weights. Only a small bet as the jockey is very ordinary and certainly would not be wanting to take less than $5.00.
Unplaced @ $12
Got a nice trail but then the idiot jockey got held up behind up behind a wall of horses and never got out from about the 300m mark !!!!!
Not saying it would have won but it's nice to see them at least get a chance.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Racing 15th November

Geelong r4 n3 The Scumpa, 2 units to win.
Nothing wrong with its last win, running a quick last 600 that I doubt any in this field can match. Looks to be on the improve and with Mark Flaherty on board should get every possible chance.
Unplaced @ $8.00
Had every possible chance I thought and was very disappointing.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Racing November 14th

Eagle Farm r3 n4 Bradfield, 1.5 units to win
Tough field but meets a few of these down in the weights and might get a soft lead in front. $4.50 in the early markets is not a bad price.
3rd @ $5.50
Led as expected and just went under by half a length

Morphetville r5 n1 Believe N Achieve, 3 units to win
Just seems to be getting better with racing and this is really no harder than what she has been meeting. Small field suits and happy to jump on at the short price ($2.00 early markets)
1st @ $2.10
Never looked like getting beaten to run out an easy winner by 2 lengths.

Kembla Grange r5 n7 Prince Of Snippers, 1 unit to win
Is going to be big odds but there could be pace on in front which will suit as he settles back. Form has been quite reasonable this time in and hasn't been that far away in some hot last half sectionals. 8 horse field will suit those who like the each way.
1st @ $12 ($17 on betfair)
Am kicking myself in a way as it was only $12 on BF with 2 minutes to go so ended up taking the best tote price which cost me some profit. But you can't be disaapointed with a double figure odds win. Sat back in the field and whilst the pace wasn't as quick as I anticipated, it got out at the top of the straight to win comfortably in the end.

Morphetville r7 n7 Al Omghe, 2 units to win
Impressive win first up from a spell and after the claim for young Maskiell comes into this race with just 52kgs after carrying 58kgs last time. Rest of the field aren't world beaters and he could be on the way up. In strong Mick Price stable. ($5.00 early markets in from $6.00)
3rd @ $4.50
Seemed to have every chance and the class rise just looked too much.

Rosehill r8 n7 Guderian, 2 units to win
Looks the likely leader and I can't see anything really pressuring it. Massive effort after being cauughht wide last time and the Paul Perry/Hugh Bowman is a combination that I love. ($2.80 into $2.50 early markets - wouldn't really want to be taking less than $2.30).
1st @ $2.80
Got straight to the front, dictated terms and bolted in.

Well that was a terrific day with a 14.4 profit made on the day. Am really seeing the form quite well lately and have made a few subtle adjustments to my race selection method which is now bearing fruit. Well above 10% POT which is quite an achievement and if I can hover between 10% and 20% for the rest of the year, I will be very happy.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Racing 12th November

Sale r7 n3 Great Gretzky, 1.5 units to win
Terrific effort first up where it met with some support in the ring indicating that it is fit. Not exactly sure where it will be in the run here hence the scaled down bet but has raced on pace prior to spell. If it does get in the first 4 will be extremely hard to beat. Take anything $3.00 and over.
Unplaced @ $7.00
Stop start pace and don't think it really appreciated it.

Once again I get above 10% POT only to be dragged back down below again. Shows how hard this game is.

NBA 12th November

Nets +5.5 @ $1.91 (Luxbet), 1.5 units - Currently +5.5 @ $1.885 @ Pinnacle
Nets lose by 3 and bet wins
T-Wolves +8.0 @ $1.95 (Luxbet), 2 units - Currently +8.0 @ $1.885 @ Pinnacle
T-Wolves get belted and bet loses

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Racing 11th November

Seymour r6 n4 La Rocket, 2 units to win
Last two starts have been excellent with bias at both tracks not suiting the on pace brigade. Gets it chance to get a nice run in the first few in this small field. Opposition are no world beaters and is quite well weighted. Only query is that it has been up for a while otherwise would have been as close to a special as you could find. Happy to take $1.80 and above. Currently $3.20 in early markets but has been backed.
1st @ $3.20 (started $2.40)
Got the sit behind the leader and always looked the winner.

Back over 10% POT again and this is where I traditionally start falling down again. Lets hope I can keep the good streak on the gallops going.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

NBA November 7th

Denver 1.5 units +3.0 ($1.95, IASBET) v Atlanta.
Currently +3.0, $1.915 @ Pinnacle.
Another bad loss. Am really getting punished this year.
Unfortunately am not putting in as much effort as I used to in previous years (ie checking every morning - its usually every 2-3 days now) due to work and child committments.
Have to have a think about what I want to do as its no use going in half cocked.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Racing November 7th

Doomben r1 n2 Cattalion, 1.5 units to win
Distance query here but can't pot its winning form. Drawn to get a gun run and a lot of the other favoured runners settle back and could be in for quite a chase.
1st @ $4.40
Just held on to win by the smallest possible margin.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Racing November 6th

Townsville r2 n8 Matiya's Pride - 2 units to win.
Has a great record this track and last win was impressive. Times have been far superior to those it meets today. Only query is the trip but has won to 1500m before and steps up to 1600m today. Wouldn't take a silly price about it but anything above $2.00 should be bet.
1st @ $5.00
Won like a genuine $2.00 chance and I eagely snapped up the $5 that was offered.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Melb Cup Day

Will have other selections soon.

As for the Cup.
Viewed on top from Roman Emperor and Alcopop. Not particularly keen on the race as the market looks about right. Newport a rough hope at the value.

Melb r4 n3 Ortensia, 3 units to win.
Looks to have lengths on the opposition here and should settle handy in the run.
Melb r5 n4 Definitely Ready, 2.5 units to win
Huge effort too win last time after playing up before the start. Ratings suggest it could be the next sprinting superstar.
Melb R6 n4 So Anyway, 2 units to win
Clear top rater here and should be at a reasonable price. Does get back so will need some pace on.

Well the less said about today, the better. I hate Melbourne Cup Day. Big fields with horses set for certain races that makes the form meaningless. Not to mention that the track invariably starts to show signs of bias after so many races being run in such a short time span. Today there was a rail about 5-9 horses off the fence and if you didn't get on that, then you were doomed.

Oaks Day won't be any better either and I doubt if you will see any tips from me on Thursday. Not at Flemington anyway.

And yes - I'm bitter. LOL.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Racing November 1st

Sunshine Coast, r3 n4 Sisula, 1.5 units to win
3rd @ $5.00
Bordertown r3 n1 Most Handsome, 1.5 units to win
1st @ $2.80

NBA October 31

New Jersey Nets v Washington
Nets 2 units @ +6.5 ($1.91) Luxbet - $1.87 at Pinnacle.
Beaten by 19. Off to a bad start in the NBA but you have to wear the bad runs. It will turn around eventually.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Racing - Derby Day

Flemington r2 n1 Light Vision, 1.5 units to win
Most consistent galloper and I am prepared to overlook its last start failure in the Caulfield Cup. Back to its right grade here.
Unplaced @ $11
Obviously has had enough and just didn't run it out.
Flemington r7 n11 Typhoon Tracy, 3 units to win
Ticks all the boxes. Best mare in Australia, should get a good run by gun jockey Luke Nolen and looks very hard to beat.
1st @ $2.20
Blitzed them to win by 5 lengths
Morphetville r6 n2 Morgan Dollar, 1 units to win
Should get the good sit behind the leader here and is way down in class.
Unplaced @ $2.30
3w throughout which isn't quite how I expected the race to pan out.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Racing 30th October

Warracknabeal r4, n6 Undiscovered, 1 unit to win
Not overly keen but does have excellent form for this and if it is going to break through then today should be its day.
2nd @ $1.60
The price was ridiculous so I didn't back it but for the purpose of this blog will count it in the P&L.
In fact, if I had access to my betfair account would have been laying it for plenty. It was $3.00 in the morning market so thought that was okay value - hence the selection.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

NBA 27 October

Houston +8.5 v Portland, 2 units @ $2.04 Betfair ($1.99 with commission).
Currently 1.95 @ Pinnacle.

And wouldn't you know it, they lose by 9. In all honesty though I would have been blessed to win considering they trailed by much more throughout the game.

Monday, October 26, 2009

NBA Betting Theory




Well, another season is upon us so thought I might take the time to explain how and why I bet on the NBA.

Firstly to the why.
Now I'm not going to confess to being a basketball expert. I've probably played one organised game in my life and whilst I enjoy watching it, the last period is always infinitely more interesting and better than the first 3 periods. I do know most of the players but that is just more keeping up to date from a *fantasy perspective more than anything else.

Anyway, the reason I like it as a betting medium is :
a) the volume of matches
b) the efficiency of the market place.
Now a) speaks for itself but you're probably wondering what b) is about.

Pinnacle is the market leader in US sports betting and its market is nearly always the first to react when something is going on pre game (Player A pulls out of game, Player C starting on the bench etc). With NBA because of the number of games there is a real benefit in being the first to spot the movement and take advantage.

In Australia, corporate sports betting has really exploded however it is almost impossible for them to keep up with all the betting options they offer. One advantage of having young children is that I'm generally up at about 6am which is a time when NBA betting is getting very interesting but also is a time when the corporate bookmakers in Australia are generally asleep. So what I'm trying to do is get an 'over'. If Pinnacle (ie the marketplace) say the Nets are +4.5 @ +$1.93 but Centrebet have the line at +5.0 @ $1.93 then I will bet - I am getting a +0.5 edge.
It doesn't seem like much but over a long period it adds up.

In an overall season all I want to do is make 2% -> 5% POT on NBA. I'm happy with that. Some years I will make a small loss. Other years I will make a better profit. But by just betting the over I should be ahead in the long run.

As to the how.

Now you need accounts all over the place which I have. As far as betting is concerned I generally only look at teams who are underdogs in the 0 -> +8.5 range and the favourites in the 0 -> -5.5 range. The reason being is that once a team gets well in front a coach will often take his good players off in the last 5 or so minutes and give his bench players a run. The NBA is not concerned about percentage or points for. All a team wants is the win.

Occasionally I will back a team straight out if I am getting a good over but by and large it will be the underdog.

Thats it. Fairly simple really. Please bear in mind that if you do follow my selections that it is important that you get the odds and line I specify (or better of course). Whilst the Nets +4.5 @ $1.91 might be value, they are definitely not value if you take +4.0 @ $1.90.

Just one other thing. By backing the over it means that by and large you are backing a team that is well supported. Which therefore means that smarter people than you and me think that particular betting option is a good chance. Its nice to have that on your side as well.....

Hope that is useful.

Sidenote : fantasy basketball is probably the best fantasy game to play because of the consistency of all the major stat categories.

Racing October 26

Pakenham R5 n1 Cheddington, 1.5 units to win
On paper looks a certainty however get back style and small field means I have to reduce my bet.
3rd @ $1.80
In hindsight a bad bet on a race that had too many negatives comparable to the price that was taken.

Coonabarabran r6 n7 Gather, 1 unit to win
Miles down in class and worth a look at the early market of $8.00.
Unplaced @ $5.50
Never a hope and very disappointing.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Racing October 25

Mt Gambier, r2 n12 Carthy Road, 1.5 units to win.
1st @ $2.80 (betfair)
Rounded them up and won easily by 3 lengths.

I realise $2.8 is about $2.7 after commission on betfair but I want to keep the running total to one decimal place if I can so permit me the indulgence of rounding up......

Saturday, October 24, 2009

UK Football 24th October

Preston v Middlesborough - 2 units Preston (draw no bet) @ $1.83.
Courtesy Football Beeting (and more) Blog
Preston score in the 90th minute to draw and rescue the bet.....

Racing October 24

Morphetville r2 n5 Liffeybel, 2.5 units to win
Seems to be looking for this trip and looks to be the likely leader in a race with no speed which is always advanntageous around Morphetville Parks. Tellingly, this is the only horse Victorian trainer Jim Mason has brought over to SA for the day. At $7.00 in the early markets ranks as an excellent value bet.
Unplaced @ $8.00
Led as expected but was taken on mid race for a short burst or so which basically killed off his chances. Probably the only leader to get beaten in the first five races too. Oh well !!!!


Doomben r7 n2 Mitanni, 1 unit to win
Class runner of the field whose runs this time back haven't been as bad as they seem. Should get the gun run from the inside barrier and I can envisage it being about 3 back the fence. Some of the favourites in the race have a few queries on them in my opinion and $21 is massive overs. Has a 75% win and place strike rate at Doomben.
3rd @ $15
Settled 3 back the fence and ran on moderatly for third

Thats it for the day.
If you twisted my arm in the Cox Plate I would have something each way Scenic Shot. Its a very open race and I couldn't bring myself to back any of the favourites in what is essentially a raffle. Scenic Shot would be the best outsider I would consider backing.
Readers of this blog will know I've been spruiking So You Think for the past 2 months. Unfortunately wasn't in it yesterday as :
a) thought it would start unders due to the Cummings factor..
b) extremely tough to win a Cox Plate at your first prep with just 5 runs under your belt.

Of course a is linked to b and it strolled home to win by 3 lengths.

I can't wait for the autumn when More Joyous and So You Think clash in the big races. To my mind they are the best two middle distance horses in Australia and by a fair way too.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Nothing again for today

Its not that I haven't been looking.
Just that there is nothing that I''m really keen on backing.

Am sure we'll have some selections for tomrrow.

No golf tomorrow so reckon I will have them up around 9am or so.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Racing 21st October

Some good priced selections today so if we connect with just one of them a profit should be made.

Geelong r7, n2 Southern Skye - 1.5 units (win)
1st @ $14
Geelong r8, n10 Hoorang - 1 unit (win)
unplaced @ $21
Canterbury r2, n2 Zeebac - 1.5 unit (win)
2nd @ $8
Strathalbyn r8, n9 Adams Peak - 2 units (win)
unplaced @ $7

Terrific day with Southern Skye landing the Geelong Derby Trial at the great fixed odds of $14. Think it started around $11 in the end. Paul Perry is a terrific trainer and always needs to be watched in these black type races.
Zeebac had every chance and just wasn't good enough whilst the other two were beaten easily.

Anyway we're now well back in profit and travelling at over 10% POT which is probably too high in my opinion but we may as well ride our luck while we can.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Racing 19th October

Tamworth r5 n1 Artillerist - 2 units to win
2nd @ $2.40
Tamworth r8 n2 Bahrain - 1 unit to win
2nd @ $5.50

Well it looks like that '2nd' flu is back again.......

Saturday, October 17, 2009

UK Soccer - 17th October

Blackpool to beat Plymouth - 3 units @$1.85
Courtesy Football Betting (and more) Blog

Easy 2-0 victors.

Racing 17th October

Sorry, in a rush again today so has to be short but sweet.

Ascot R2 N4, Test The Angels 1.5 units to win
Unplaced
Caulfield R4 n2 Shamoline Warrior 3 units to win
1st @ $3.60
Caulfield r8 n2 Kirklees 2 units to win
Unplaced - disgusting ride by K McEvoy. How do you get caught 3w from barrier 6 for the whole trip ?
Randwick r3 n3 Yallingup 2 units to win
Unplaced
Randwick r4 n2 Bandar 1.5 units to win.
Unplaced

Day ended in a slight profit thanks to Shamoline Warrior however the other runners were all disappointing. Great ride by B Rawiller on Viewed to get the Caulfield Cup and the less said about K McEvoys performance on Kirklees the better.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Caulfield Cup Preview

The second biggest race on the Australian racing calender is on tomorrow and I might need some guidance from some of my UK friends here with the imported horses zooming into favouritism.

I have narrowed it down to four chances with one main hope.

Kirklees
Racing in tip top form in the UK and last start winners for some reason have a terrific record in this race - especially the overseas horses (Taufans Melody and All The Good in the last decade). Kirklees has drawn well and races on the speed which is always super imprtant at Caulfield. Should be either leading or just behind the lead and if it has travelled okay must be the one to beat.

Predatory Pricer
The best of the local horses. Its form has been terrific this time in and although some people are querying whether it will stay the trip there is no doubt in my mind as it should have won the AJC Derby back in Autumn which was over the same distance. Has drawn out though and it will either have to get back or race forward early which is against its usual pattern. If it can slot into a good spot then it will go very close but its a big if.

Allez Wonder
4yo mares used to have a great record in this race and is trained by the master Bart Cummings. Surprised all last week with its win at 50/1 but that must indicate that it is super ready for this. Has got a good alley and would expect it to be sitting in the first 10 or so come the final 5 furlongs. Definite value at the 16/1.

Cima De Triomphe
A 4th to Sea The Stars looks good on paper but it was beaten 10.5 lengths. Think it will go around unders but no doubt it has the ability. Apparantly has been working the place down and has the best jockey in Australia (D Oliver) on board so it should get every possible chance.

Will post bets tomorrow but welcome any feedback.

Racing 16th October

Townsville r1 n1Columbia Queen - 1.5 units to win
Unplaced
Taree r4 n4 Onethingatatime - 2 units to win
1st @ $2.00
Taree r5 n2 Pastorial Pursuits - 2 units to win
1st @ $3.80
Taree r8 n2 Dance At Midnight - 2 units to win
1st @ $2.50
Sorry haven't got much time for explanations today.

Well, back with a vengeance today lifting me well into profits since the blog began.

Bank 108
Profit 8
Turnover 182.5
POT 4.38%


Thursday, October 15, 2009

Racing 15th October

Ipswich R4 n12 Zaman - 1.5 units to win
Improving type who gets the chance to break his maiden today. Racing pattern a bit of a concern on the tight turning track at Ipswich but hopefully Cassidy can get him into a reasonable position.
2nd @ $2.50

Another fucking 2nd - thats 3 in a row now.

Bank 99
Profit -1
Turnover 175
POT -0.57%

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Racing 14th October

Caulfield R6 n1 Melito - 2 units to win

Sorry for the late post but had to wait to see how the track bias played out and if the weather had detioriated.
The good news for Melito is that the expected heavy rain hasn't come. There seems to no track bias with it just favouring leaders if forced to choose.

Melito has been running behind the superstar filly in Sydney, More Joyous who would give most of these are towelling. There are significant queries on most of the favoured runners. In my opinion the Melbourne fillies aren't that good.

She is at $8.00 in early betting and represents significant value.
2nd @ $5.50

Heavily supported from $8 into $5.50 and just failed to get there (although the winner on face value looked impressive)

Bank 100.5
Profit 0.5
Turnover 173.5
POT 0.29%

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Fantasy NBA Draft

A bit of a diversion from the usual.

Just had the annual NBA fantasy draft tonight and I ended up with pick 10 (12 teams in the comp).

Say hello to the 2009/2010 Monday Night E-Graders fantasy Champions

Deron Williams
Gerald Wallace
Jason Richardson
Caron Butler
Marcus Camby
Rashard Lewis
Brook Lopez
Mo Williams
Andrei Kirilenko
Chris Anderson
Chris Kaman
Mike Bibby
Shaun Livingston

Its a good solid team with no superstars but hopefully they will get the job done.

We score our league as : 1 point (per point), 1.5 per rebound, 2 points per assist, 3 point per block and steal, -0.5 per missed field goal and free throw, -1.0 per turnover.

I love my fantasy comps and the NBA is probably my favourite one of all so forgive me if I bore you all occasionally with details....

Racing 13th October

Grafton r7 n1 Promonotory - 2 units to win
Ex Victorian horse who ran into a smart one last time where they ran quick time. Likely to settle either outside the leader or in the first four which will be a big advantage in this apprentices only race.
2nd @ $2.40
Didn't see or hear the race so can't comment.

Bank 102.5
Profit 2.5
Turnover 171.5
POT 1.45%

Friday, October 9, 2009

Racing 10th October

Extremely difficult day tomorrow across all 4 states with not many standouts.

Pakenham R7 n3 Marker 2 units to win
Gear change last start seemed to make a big difference and it turned in an impressive effort. Races near the speed which is handy in the tight Pakenham circuit.
Scratched

Caulfield r3 n4 Avenue 2 units to win
Looks to be a bit above average and this field isn't overly strong. If she has the ability I think she has should beat these.
1st @ $2.50

Caulfield r6 n10 Pinnacles 0.5 units each way
Looked to be back to his best last time and at $31 in the early markets is a great value chance in an almost impossible race.
Scratched

Caulfield R7 n7 So You Think 3 units to win
Has been running some sensational figures in Sydney. The 1600 at Caulfield is a strong 1600 and is one that will run it right out. Trained by the big race master, Bart Cummings who has a good record with the Caulfield Guineas. Think it will settle just forward of midfield and hopefully run over the top of them.
Unplaced

Morphetville R3 n4 You Dee Cee 1.5 units to win
Speed machine who won his only race by 8 lengths in a run that was ultra impressive. First up from a spell here and have to be on it.
1st @ $8.oo

Well at last after a horrific month and a half we're back in profit. Its always a punters lament but I really wish I had have had more on You Dee Cee. This horse has a ton of ability and it easily took care of that weak field. Watch for it over the Flemington carnival as it can defintely win a straight race there.

Bank 104.5
Profit 4.5
Turnover 169.5
POT 2.65%

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Racing 7th October

Balaclava R5 N6 Teivovo - 1 unit to win..
A bit of a speculative one here. NSW visitor having its first start in SA for the very good Richard Jolly stable. Has opened up $3.00 favourite at IAS and field isn't overly strong. If it gets out past $4.00 then no bet otherwise its worth some interest.
Ist @ $3.80

Got the split on the corner to win handily. It actually drifted out to $4.20 at one stage but was backed late in betting. The R Jolly stable is one of the most astute 'unknown' stables in Oz and is one always worth following especially if there are some telling betting patterns.

Will be having a spell for the next two days as have got some things on at work but its good to see that the bad patch looks like it has finished.

Bank 94.5
Profit -5.5
Turnover 163
POT -3.37%

Monday, October 5, 2009

Racing 5th October

Hamilton r4 n7 Bad Angel - 1.5 units to win
Ballina r9 n8 Hajjar - 2 units to win

Edit : Have taken down all Warwick Farm bets due to state of the track. Watch them all win now !!!!

Well at last a good priced winner with Bet Angel saluting at the nice odds of $8.00. Unfortunately Hajjar couldn't make it a quinella for me.

Sorry for the skinny updates lately. Having some issues at home with the kids sleeping and its hard to get time to even eat dinner let alone do form and update the blog. I pray that this is only a passing issue as its not overly fun at the moment.

Bank 91.7
Profit -8.3
Turnover 162
POT -5.12%

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Knackered

Have had 3 hours of sleep (thanks kids) and played 18 very ordinary holes of golf this morning. No time to really look at the form and will spend the afternoon on the couch just having little interest bets.

Thanfully, the boys grandmother has offered (well, after I asked anyway) to take them off our hands for the rest of the day so will get some peace and quiet.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Racing 2nd October

Canberra R3 N5 Sellout - 2 units to win
Easy winner in similar class last time and shapes as though extra distance will suit.

LAY
Canberra R8 N5 Dayalla - to lose 2 units at no greater than $3.50
This is a bit harder than its maiden win and may not get iots own way in front.

Sellout was always chasding and never looked likely. On the lay front Dayella was well beaten however started at $4.50 so didn''t fir my lay criteria.

Bank 83.2
Profit -16.8
Turnover 158.5
POT -10.60%

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Punting Update

Well I can officially say am now on my worst run in at least 12 months. Probably close to 2 years. I've lost count of the number of each way 4th's or close seconds that have occured and you can't help but lose some confidence after a while.

The PGA tour usually provides me with some respite but I refuse to get involved in that mickey mouse Fed Ex cup as the fields are just too shallow. Also often they are playing on newish courses where you can't get a grip on who is suited and not suited.

Tennis is also entering a bit of a twilight zone at this time of year so its hard to have an interest there either.

The good news is that the NBA starts in a few weeks and I've been profitable there for three years running so maybe that might kick start something.

Going to keep battling away with the gallops. As I've said previously it is a hard time of year with horses being fresh and others coming off winter tracks into the harder spring tracks. The tide will hopefully turn soon.

In other developments have also been tinkering on Betfair with the harness racing. Betfair have now introduced 'in run' betting on the major Friday night meetings and I have been watching it with interest. The theory goes that if you can spot the leader prior to the race it will shorten dramatically in the run if it finds the lead. Then its just a matter of laying it and 'greening up'. Have only been playing with small wagers at the moment but it has been successful. The liquidity on in run betting isn't great so its hard to get too involved but its a definite possibility once it gets a bit more popular.

Onwards and upwards anyway. I've had worse runs than this before and its never stopped me. The key is to remain disciplined and not chase the losses which I've been doing.

Racing 1st October

Ipswich R4 N6 Magic Cashel 1.5 units e/w
Steps up to the 1600m which it seems to be wanting and gets chance to break his maiden here. Horse will be sacked if it can't get home today.

Sorry for lack of updates - just had a lot on. Will update balances tonight hopefully.

Magic Cashel now goes on my sack list after proving costly for the 2nd time (watch it go around and win at double figure odds next start now...).

Bank 85.2
Profit -14.8
Turnover 156.5
POT -9.45%

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Racing 30th September

Moonee Valley R8 N10 Sol Brilliante - 2 units to win
Drops back in grade and is quite well off at the weights. Should get gun run behind the leaders and is up against a field consisting mostly of first uppers or horses no longer at their peak.

Well I got the pattern completely wrong with Sol Brilliante settling down near the back and storming home for 5th. It was a good run but I'm always wary of horses that get back that far.

Bank 88.2
Profit -11.8
Turnover 155.5
POT -7.20%

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

UK Soccer - 29th Sept

Cardiff to beat Derby - 2 units @ $1.91
Liverpool to beat Fiorentina - 2 units @ $1.95

Selections courtesy of Football Betting (and More)

Well Cardiff gave Derby a touch up but Liverpool were very disappointing against the Italians.

Bank 90.2
Profit -9.8
Turnover 153.5
POT -6.38%

Racing 29th Sept

Just a couple of lays today but only if they are $4.00 or less

Pakenham R4 N7 Supereminent - to lose 2 units
Form is just so-so and happy to lay on a wet track at the early morning odds of $3.00. Think it will start a bit longer though and may not get to lay it.
Started $5.50 and well beaten into 3rd. No lay though as over the $4 maximum.

Kembla Grange R3 N1 Zabrasive - to lose 2 units
Run probably looked better than it actually was last time and its ratings are no better than a lot of the others in the field. Not saying it doesn't have scope for improvement but it was very green and does get back and prepared to risk today.
1st @ $2.80. Big drifter on track (must be reading this blog - lol) from $2.00. Managd to lay it at $2.44 but no joy.

Bank 90.4
Profit 9.6
Turnover 149.5
POT -6.42%

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Racing Sept 26

Randwick R1 N2 Viking Legend - 2 units to win
Well bred youngster who seems to be looking for this trip. Racing well and should put itself into a good position.
1st @ $3.20. Got the good run and too strong in the end.

Randwick R6 N2 Racing to Win - 3 units to win
Has come back as good as ever and this doesn't look an overly strong Gr 1 race.
Probably turned in the worst run of its career. Pay to forget it went around.

Randwick R6, Quin N2 & N9 - 1 unit
Rock Kingdom is racing very well and could be only danger to RTW.
Unplaced

Randwick R7 N4 Bellagio Wynn - 1.5 unit e/w
There are a few queries on the favourites and @ $11 in the early markets looks a great each way proposition.
2nd paying $3.30 the place. Just missed out on what would have been a good collect.

Belmont R8 N6 Pillow Time - 2 units to win
Could not have been more impressive last time and have to be on it again.
Very poor

Also for those Betfair punters, a few lays if you are that way inclined.
Randwick R3 N7 Sister Madly - to lose 2 units
Figures weren't overly impressive LT and I tend to think that she has a boom on her that isn't really deserved.
2nd @ $3.00. Beaten a neck or so.

Randwick R8 N2 Madame Pedrille - to lose 2 units
Up against a very competitive mares field today and the $1.80 in the early markets is terrible value. Happy to be against her today.
1st @ $1.65. Fell in and one more bound it woould have been beaten.

An eventful day with the end result being a loss of 0.6 units. However can feel some confidence coming back and with a bit of luck could have had a nice profit for the afternoon.

Bank 92.4
Profit -7.6
Turnover 147.5
POT -5.15%

Friday, September 25, 2009

No selections today

Good meeting at Moonee Valley tonight but the weather is rubbish so could play havoc with the track conditions and bias.

Also off to see the Jersey Boys (its not as gay as it sounds) this evening and I don't want to be wondering how my bets are going whilst there.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Racing 24th September

Hawkesbury R9 N2 Hashasan - 3 units to win
Raced against the likes of O'Lonhro and Snow Alert last campaign and now drops to a midweek Class 2. In top stable and its early win was over todays trip of 1400m. Rest of the field isn't great and although it will be short it should win.

All I can say is that there must have been something amiss with it today. Never got on the bit, was well beaten 600 out and just finished in front of a few stragglers in the end.

However thats the 2nd time in 2 days that a Waterhouse fresh runner (either 1st or 2nd up) has not performed as expected. Normally if they weren't fit you would expect the market to give some sort of a sign but in both cases they were well supported. Am going to have a better look at fresh horses from this stable over the next week and see if there is a real pattern happening.

Bank 93
Profit -7
Turnover 132.5
POT -5.28%



Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Racing 22nd September

Warwick Farm R7 N7 Merensky Reef - 1.5 units to win
Waterhouse gelding first up over 1400m. Looks to be the likely leader in a field full of backmarkers. The wide barrier at the W/Farm 1400m isn't so bad and actually will probably help as far as value is concerned. Has been racing in far better company than the rest of these (last start in Frank Packer Plate) and stable usually has its horses primed from the get-go.

Has been supported in the early markets ($4.00 into $3.80) so should be fit. Not overly keen on backing horses who are first up each way as in my experience they either win or do nothing. Hence the win only play here.

Apologies for the late write-up. Have been crook the last 24 hours.

Merensky Reef ended up starting favourite @ $2.25 which was way unders in my book. Got out fast as expected, took a trail behind the leader and loomed as the winner on the corner. However its condition gave out in the final 200m and was well beaten in the end for 2nd.

Bank 96
Profit -4
Turnover 129.5
POT -3.09%

Monday, September 21, 2009

Racing 21st September

Wagga R4 N1 Asquick Aszariz 2 units to win
Good win last time and doesn't meet much here. Only query is the drop back to 1200 from 1400 but he does look to have a bit on these.
1st @ $2.20
Jumped straight to the front and the result was never in doubt.

Bank 97.5
Profit -2.5
Turnover 128
POT -1.95%


Saturday, September 19, 2009

AFL Update

Have had 5 units on Cwood @ +16.5 ($2.00) meaning that if they lose between 0-16, we win 10 units with a zero liability.

I like these type of books !!!!!

Pies smashed by 70+ points so they couldn't fall in the hole for me. Again no losses and I will do this type of bet every day of the week if I get the chance.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 126
POT -3.88%


Racing 19th Sept

Caulfield R9 N3 Light Vision - 2 units e/w
$9 in current markets and has scope to improve. In strong stable and looks likely to get a good run on the pace.
2nd @ $6.50, $2.00 place.
Looked the winner with 150 to go until the winner got the rails run. In saying that it did win confortably. No harm done but would hav ebeen good if it won.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 121
POT -4.04%

Friday, September 18, 2009

Racing 17th September

Canberra R4 N2 Meyerbeer - 1.5 units e/w
Am expecting the favourite to start under the odds here hence the others end up being some value. Meyerbeer seems the most likely to cause the upset. Drops from a C3 to a C1 and ran a good race last time on the tricky Canberra circuit. Young Josh Adams is an up and coming jockey and hopefully will have the horse positioned well in the run.

2nd beaten a nostril paying $2.00 the place. At least no harm done.
The bad run continues. Thats two photo finishes in two days. I try to be dispassionate about my punting but sometimes it gets hard. The favourite was well beaten into third so was correct on that score.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 117
POT -4.18%

Thursday, September 17, 2009

AFL Finals

Grand Final Quinella, SK v Geel - 5 units @ $2.00
Bit of a maths play here. The best available SK is $1.38 whilst the best available Geel is $1.40. That gives us a dividend of $1.93 meaning the $2.00 offered is well and truly overs.
If SK win tomorrow night then will be having 5 units on Collingwood at +14.5 ($2.00) meaning that if they lose beteween 0-14, I will have 10 units running around for me with zero risk.

These plays come up in the AFL every now and then and need to be taken advantage of. Of course if the Bulldogs beat SK I'm screwed but am prepared to risk it.

Racing 17th Sept

Seymour R3 N9 Zealous - 1 unit e/w
Big field should suit as there will be some pace on. Fairly consistent in maiden class and gets chance to break through today.
4th
Okay so you're drawn 7 in a 16 horse field over a staying trip on a horse that likes to get back and in a race with a bit of speed. Hmm what shall we do. Well, firstly lets get caught 3 wide for the first 800 meters. Now, lets press forward and go to the lead. Now, I'm not a jockey but I would think now that breather might be in order especially as I've got another horse whipping around the outside. No, we won't let it in. Lets clap the pace on. 100 meters to go. I can't win but can hold on for 3rd. SO lets drop the hands and not see the horse flying down the outside grab the minor placing.

This is what actually happened.

I've never been a fan of S Arnold and this ride today just backs it up. According to the boffins at Smartform his last 50 rides have yielded a shocking -52.7% POT which sums him up at the moment. He's been given life with no possibility of parole from me.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 117
POT -4.18%

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Racing Sept 15

Warrnambool R8 N1 Waltzes -3 units to win
Beautifully bred and has been quite impressive only two starts to date. Softish ground no problem and should get good sit on the speed.
1st @ $1.70 - Not overly impressive but got the chocolates

Bank 97.1
Profit -2.9
Turnover 115
POT -2.52%

Tennis US Open

Wow - what a win by the big guy. Always thought he was the Argentinian version of the Scud but it appears he has loads more intestinal fortitude than him. To thrash Nadal and then beat Federer in five at the ripe old age of 20 is a sign of a seriously good player.

Anyway I managed to get rid of 2.5 units at $1.40 early in the 5th set which meant my eventual book had Del Potro winning me 15 units and Federerer winning me 5 units.

All in all a successful tournalment for me that has almost rescued my dreadful last few weeks. To be only 5 units down whilst in a horror patch is a good sign and shows the virtue of being a bit versatile with your punting.

Bank 95
Profit -5
Turnover 112
POT -8.48%

PS : Have to thank Scott from Sport is Made for Betting for the Del Potro tip. He is a genius on the tennis.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Tennis US Open

I managed to get another 1.5 units out of Wozniaski when she broke early in the first but alas she just could not go on with it. Clijsters had too many weapons for her and Wozniaski's serve was particularly vulnerable. That said it doesn't say much for womens tennis when a girl out of the game for over 2 years can come back and win a major on her first attempt. Not only that she blew away an opponent in the final who had been one of the form players of the year.

Del Potro was very impressive beating Nadal but don't know what Rafa's fitness is like at the moment. The form could be misleading or it could be very, very good. I'm not going to do anything until the match gets underway and see how it pans out.

Am going to ease up on the gallops tips for a while. Been trying to tip winners every day and its not good when you go searching for them. I think suconsciously I''m selecting horses that I normally wouldn't and ignoring certain criteria that I have that would normally mean me ignoring them. That said, I will still be analysing races that interest me every day and if one pops up will ertainly post it. If anything else, you might be able to lay it on Betfair !!!!!!!

Bank 80
Profit -20
Turnover 112
POT -17.85%

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Racing Sept 13

Sunshine Coast R4 N12 Magic Cashel 2.5 units win
Heavily supported at first ever start and in good stable. Both runs have been solid and with a bit of pace on here gets its chance to win. Should be decent odds with a few in the market under the odds in my opinion.
4th running on. Think this horse has got a bit of potential as a stayer and am going to stick with it.

Scone R6 N1 Aspire 2 units to win
Couldn't have been more impressive LT winning his maiden by 7 lengths. Drawn the outside here but not much speed early and could get across to lead. Slight query at the 1100m but you have to be on it after its last win.
A silly bet in hindsight. Worked hard to lead them and compounded in the straight.

Tennis Update
Well, Wosniacki got through to the final where she meets Clijsters. Did some business on Betfair and I have Wosniacki winning me 9.5 units and Clijsters winning me 1 unit. May trade during the match but reasonably happy with that position at the moment.
In the mens Del Potro meets Nadal tomorrow in the semi finals and frankly anything could happen there. Not that confident but fingers crossed.

Bank 78.5
Profit -21.5
Turnover 112
POT -19.19%




Saturday, September 12, 2009

English Premier League Sept 12

West Ham Asian Hcp v Wigan +0 & +0.5 , 2.5 units @ $1.90
Selection courtesy of Football Betting and More blog

West Ham lost 1-o and so did my wager :-(

Bank 81.5
Profit -17
Turnover 107.5
POT -14.88%
Pending 1.5

Racing Sept 12

Moonee Valley R2 No8 Keltara 2 units to win
Races on the speed and has good ratings for this. Great value at the early market of $9.
Unplaced @ $8.00
Rosehill R2 No10 Empire Place 3 units to win
Gets in well at the weights here and goes well at track and distance
Unplaced @ $3.50
Rosehill R3 No1 Obama 3 units to win
In top stable and is improving from race to race. Races on the speed.
2nd @ $4.00
Rosehill R4 N12 Sister Madly 2 units to win
Stable has good strike rate and was unlucky at its first start. Great value here.
1st @ $5.00
Yarra Valley R4 N12 Silkyanna 3.5 units too win
Miles down in class and should be too good for these.
1st @ $1.70
Note : Some selections courtesy of smartform.com.au

Very small profit made on the gallops today.

Bank 84
Profit -14.5
Turnover 105
POT -13.81%
Pending 1.5

Friday, September 11, 2009

Racing - 11th September

Geelong - R5 N4 French Secret 1 unit e/w
Been given some mail on this from the stable to say that it has been working well and should go okay fresh. Field is very moderate.

Other than that no selections at the moment. I assumed yesterday that there would be no racing today due to the jockeys strike (will comment on that later) so barely even looked at the form for today.

I guess we all know what happens when you back a horse each way in the middle of a rough trot. Yes, thats right they come fourth..

Bank 82.85
Profit -15.65
Turnover 91.5
POT -17.1%
Pending 1.5



Thursday, September 10, 2009

10th September Update

Again, nothing on the racing front today although a few were close.

Wosniacki did the right thing dismantling the upstart American teenager Oudin 6-2 6-2. She is a ball retrieving machine and I quite fancy her chances if she gets to meet Clijsters in the final. Serena is probably another story though. Interestingly she is still $6.60 on Betfair to win the tournalment. Given that she wil most probably be $1.20 in her semi, that means that the public think she's a $5.50 chance in the final. I doubt she will start that big against Serena and she would be a genuine $2.50 chance against Clijsters (if not better).

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Tennis Update - Horse Racing 9th September

Firstly, nothing from the gallops today. Just not enough there to interest me.

On to the tennis.
Andy Murray being eliminated has opened it up for Del Potro. However he still has to get through Cilic, Nadal (probably) and Federer (probably). He's a flaky customer so therefore am happy to get rid of my initial stake @ $6.80 leaving me with 17.5 units running around for nothing. Will probably leave any future trades if and when he makes the final.

On the womens side, I''m happy to leave the Wozniacki bet alone for the time being. Hopefully she gets through Oudin tomorrow and from there she 'should' make the final. We really need an upset in the Clijsters v Williams match to get some trading happening.

Bank 84.85
Profit -13.65
Turnover 89.5
POT -15.25
Pending 1.5
Trades : Del Potro win 17.5 to lose 0 units

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

AFL premiership betting

My market and thoughts with 6 teams remaining

St Kilda : $1.90
Geelong : $5.00
Bulldogs : $9.00
Collingwood : $12.00
Adelaide : $14.00
Brisbane : $67.00

St Kilda
Look extremely focused and the team to beat. The $2.60 you can get at the moment is overs in my opinion. Have a bit of an over reliance on Riewoldt and if anything should happen to him, their chances go south accordingly.
Geelong
A lot of their key players are getting older and they just don't seem as hungry as they once were. A lot rests on how Steve Johnson comes back as he is the key to their success.
Bulldogs
Disappointing last week but should win against Brisbane guaranteeing them a spot against St Kilda in the preliminary final. Have virtually no injuries which is about the only reason I can find for them having a chance.
Collingwood
The loss of Pendlebury has virtually killed off any chances they had of winning. Face a very good Adelaide side this week which will soften them up even further should they make it.
Adelaide
Are $1.80 this week and if they get through will face Geelong where they would be about $3.00 and then probably St Kilda where they would be about $3.50 - hence the 'supposed' good odds of $14.00. They are between $7 and $10 at the moment which is shocking value. You will do far better backing them on an all up basis.
Also must take into account that Adelaide would probably be the bookies and layers best result so you would expect their various match day prices to be quite generous.
I quite like them and think they will give Geelong a real good run for their money if they make it to the Prelim.
Brisbane
Fell in against a very ordinary Carlton side in a game where I expected them to win easily. Too many injuries and barring a miracle cannot win.

Betting recomendations
back St Kilda to win flag @ $2.60
back Adelaide to win this week, then have the profits to win the following week.

Horse Racing - 8th September

Warwick Farm - R3 No 3 Jonka Tiki - 1 unit each way
Is $12.00 in early markets. Has good 2nd up form and there a few queries on the others. Has produced the best ratings of any horse in the race so no doubt the ability is there. Happy to have a small bet at the value.

Just held on for 3rd paying $4.70 the place.

Bank 82.85
Profit -13.65
Turnover 87.5
POT -15.6%
Pending 3.5

Monday, September 7, 2009

Horse Racing - 7th September

Quirindi R4 No 1 Nerund - 3 units to win
Good run last start after working early and drawn to get box seat behind leader here. Looks to have scope for improvemment and gets in well at the weights.

Meeting abandoned.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Tennis US Open - Womens

Wozniacki to win US Open - 1.5 units @ 15.5 (Betfair)
Purely a speculative bet. Her side of the draw has really opened up and if she can get through Kutznetsova tomorrow she then faces either Oudin or Petrova in the quarters. The other likely semi finalist is going to be unseeded so you would think she gets through to the final from there. If she gets that far and faces Serena in the final will trade out otherwise will hold on for the ride.

Also has the added advantage of being a semi decent sort......

Horse Racing - 6th September

Cranbourne R7 N6 Venezuelan Miss - 3 units to win
Has a class edge on his rivals except for the top weight who seems to be out of form. Trained at the track and was well backed 1st up indicating that 2nd up should not be a problem. Dangers 2 (leader) and 5 (sound 2nd up record but distance query).

Absoloutly terrible run. Again there may have been a leader bias and it was 2nd up but I still got it horribly wrong. Going to have to re-think some aspects of my strategy.

Have been milling it over and it could come down to the good horses resuming in the spring running against the moderate ones coming off a winter. Also, have to conncentrate on horses that are going to be in the first half of the field in the run, preferably the first six. I usually try to do so but maybe I've been blind sighted a bit by run on horses of late and its getting a bit costly.

Ironic of course that as soon as I start this blog, it starts going a bit pear shaped. Bad trots do happen though and its important to understand and recognise it.

Bank 81.65
Profit -15.85
Turnover 85
POT -18.64%
Pending 2.5

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Horse Racing 5th September

Flemington R2 N8 Shamoline Warrior 2.5 units to win
No real reason other than that I''ve been given a good tip for it from the stable where it has apparantly been working the place down.

Brisbane R6 N7 Judge Me Not - 3 units to win
Honest horse who has produced in better races than what he meets today. Gets in on the minimum here and should prove hard to beat.

Belmont Park - R2 N4 Miss Timed - 3 units to win
Last 2 ultra impressive and looks hard to hold out here.

Disappointing results today. Shamoline Warrior appeared to be caught in the worst part of the track but the buzz from the Kavanagh stable is big on this horse so I'm going to stick with it.
Judge Me Not was 3W throughout and only went down by a length whilst there were no excuses for Miss Timed.

Whilst Saturday's offer the best racing its often hard for me to properly research the races as I have golf in the morning and often I have to rush. Will be paying far more attention in future. Also think I get stuck in the "oh its Saturday and its good racing I must have to have a few selections" which is just flawed thinking. Ironically I did back a winner later in the day (which I didn't put up here) when I had a bit more time but I imagine that doesn't help readers of this blog !!!!!

Bank 84.65
Profit -12.85
Turnover 82
POT -15.67%
Pending 2.5



Friday, September 4, 2009

Horse Racing - 4th September

Kilmore R6 N6 - Olympias Girl 2.5 units each way.
Has shown good form this time in and relishes the softer tracks. Strike rate is a concern but is better than these. Query on the Tassie visitor (n4) whose form is hard to line up otherwise bet would have been larger. Each way special if you like the each way.
Unpl @ $3.30
Hugely disappointing. Can only put it down that it was ridden closer to the lead today and was stuck on the worst part of the track (but only guessing as haven't seen any other races at Kilmore today)

Wyong R6 N2 - Adnocon 2 units to win
Meets a decent field here but is coming back from city class where it has aquitted itself well. There is a bit of speed on here which will suit as it likes to get back and run on.
1st @ $3.80
Race panned out as mapped with the winner coming from back in the field to run out a fairly comfortable winner.

Bank 93.15
Profit - 2.35
Turnover 73.5
POT -3.20%
Pending 4.5

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Horse Racing - 3rd September

Seymour R8 N12 Roseberry Topping - 2 units to win
2nd @ $3.20
Toppy has a bit of hype to it but is up in class, well weighted and drawn poorly. Roseberry Topping has been racing in better company than what it meets today and is drawn to get a good run. It continues to improve and its last start effort with blinkers first time was very good. It keeps the blinkers again today. An each way bet would also be a good proposition if yiou are inclined that way.
A bit cursed today with my selection getting beaten by a bee's dick right on the line.

To make things worse I had 3 other selections that I considered for betting today and they all won paying $2.40, $4.40 and $5.50 respectively. Unfortunately they all had a few minor things against them so didn't want to get involved.

Bank 92.55
Profit -2.95
Turnover 66.5
POT 4.44%
Pending 4.5


Tennis update : All 3 selections safely through the first round and hopefully they all win their 2nd round matches tonight.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Horse Racing - 2nd September

Balaclava R3 No15 Tantomile - 2 units to win
Lightly raced Hayes horse still to break his maiden. Opened up short odds on debut at Moonee Valley so stable obviously has opinion of him. A bit of speed on and with Rhys Plumb now on board hopefully it settles down midfield and comes over the top of them.

Another welcome winner and this time at the good odds of $5.00. Hopefully we have put the bad trot behind us.

Bank 94.55
Profit -0.95
Turnover 64.5
POT -1.47%

Pending 4.5


Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Horse Racing - 1st September

A new month so lets hope for some better results on the gallops.

Ipswich R8 No 4 Jewelled Gate - 2 units to win
Improving type who should get a gun run. Query on No 1 (1st up from Vic) and No 9 (decent 2nd up form who has produced good ratings in the past).

1st @ $3.10
At last a winner !!!!!
Got to the front and led all the way

Bank 86.55
Profit -9.95
Turnover 62.5
POT -15.92%
Pending 4.5


Monday, August 31, 2009

US Open Tennis - WInner

Mens
Juan Martin Del Potro 2 units @ $16

Womens
Jelena Jankovic 2 units @ $15
Sirana Cirstea 0.5 units @ $210 (to trade)

Selections courtesy Sport is Made for Betting Blog.

Horse Racing - 31st August

Swan Hill R6 No 3 Saayeb - 2.5 uniits to win
Racing well and meets horses either past their peak or with poor fresh records.

Swan Hill R7 No 9 Schabacle - 3 units to win
Lightly raced improving type in good stable. Up in class but has shown enough to suggest he will be hard to beat.

Grafton R7 No 3 Cascade - 2 units to win
Has a class edge on some of these and back to a firm track which she needs. Query on 4kg female apprentice but horse likes to race on speed so hopefully she just gets it out in front and holds on.

Standard day at the office with all 3 losing and Cascade getting nutted in a photo at 11/2. Selection methods haven't altered in the past month just having a really bad trot. Got to stick with it and battle my way out. Thank god for the soccer and the AFL !!!!!!

Bank 86.85
Profit -14.15
Turnover 60.5
POT -23.38%

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Horse Racing - 30th August

Sandown R7 No 11 Bel Estar - 3 units to win
Improving type meeting a moderate group of stayers here. In good form with in form jockey on board. Hard to beat here.
2nd @ $2.50

Having a shocking run on the gallops at the moment which will hopefully change soon.

Bank 94.35
Profit -6.65
Turnover 53
POT - 12.45%

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Horse Racing - 29th August

In a rush to see the Bombers play Hawthorn so will be short and sweet.

Adelaide R3, No 2 Rose Darmore 3 units to win
Brisbane R5, No 6 Guiseppeno 2 units to win

No joy again with the gallops although Guiseppeno did run 2nd @ $6.00.

Bank 97.35
Profit -3.6
Turnover 50
POT -7.2%

Friday, August 28, 2009

AFL 29th August

Adelaide to win @ $2.10 vs Carlton - 5 units
Missed the good odds early in the week but $2.10 is sill overs. In fact they should be favourites. Why Carlton start favourites every week is one of the great mysteries of the world !!!!!

The Crows destroyed Carlton by 72 points. Unfortunately with the AFL season ending for Carlton next week the great money spinner will soon be ending.

Bank 102.35
Profit 2.4
Turnover 45
POT 5.33%

Horse Racing 28th August

Albury Race 6 No 3 Weekend Cash - 3 units to win
Racing consistently and saves its best for here. Doesn't mind the heavy and the opposition isn't much.

Another disgraceful ride which surely cost it the win. Oh well, you get these weeks sometimes. Have been ice cold on the gallops the last few days but the tide will turn.

Bank 96.85
Profit - 3.15
Turnover 40
POT -7.87%

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Horse Racing 27th August

Gosford R6 No 3 Real Try - 2.5 units to win
2nd @ $3.00

Smart win in good time last time out. Well be either up on the lead or well on the speed and there doesn't appear to be much pace in the race. Danger is the bottom one but it will be well back and is a bit of a non winner.

Remind to not bet in an 'apprentices only' race again. Looked the winner on the corner but got knocked over. By the time he got out the race was finished.

Bank 99.85
Profit -0.15
Turnover 37
POT -0.4%

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Horse Racing - 26th August

Nothing today - a few were close to being selected but just had one too many things against them.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

UK Soccer - 25th August

Leeds to beat Watford
2.5 units @ $2.10
Courtesy Football Betting (and more) Blog - see blogs I follow.
He has been spot on so far this season and always has a good reasoning behind his selections.

Nothing like an extra time goal. Leeds 2, Watford 1.

Bank 102.35
Profit 2.35
Turnover 34.5
POT 6.81%

25th August

Nothing for today.
Very skinny fields.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Soccer Serie A - 23rd August

Genoa v Roma both have dodgy defences but excellent strikers. Expect to see some goals scored tonight.
3 units @ $1.85 total goals scored +2.5 (Betfair)
Genoa 3, Roma 2
Bet looked gone at 1/2 time with scores at nil all each but the 2nd half turned into a scoring fest.

Bank 99.6
Profit -0.4
Turnover 32
POT -1.25%


Horse Racing - 23rd August

Seymour R2 N2 Al Karam 2 units to win.
Meets a moderate field here and gets his chance to win.
1st @ $2.80

Seymour R5 No 11 Leica Rose 1.5 units e/w
Coming back from Saturday class and ran a very quick last 600 despite finishing down the track. Both starts 3rd up have resulted in wins ! Favourite will be hard to beat but Leica is likely to be overs so have to have an interest.
Unplaced

Sunshine Coast R6 No 1 Pertinence 4 units to win
Ultra consistent and should get gun run from Katsidis. Most of the others in field are either veterans or non winners.
3rd @ $2.70

Bank 97.1
Profit -2.9
Turnover 29
POT : -10%

Saturday, August 22, 2009

UK Soccer - 22nd August

Sheffield United to win or draw versus Reading
Asian Hcp (+0, +0.5)
4units @ $1.76 - Betfair

Reading still haven't scored in 3 games this season. United are a decent side who only lost 5 times away all last season. Think this is a reasonably safe bet.

Easy win for the Blades 3-1

I don't know if anyone is reading this but should I split the different sports up when it comes to bank, profits, POT etc ?

Bank 100.5
Profit 0.5
Turnover 20 units
POT 2%