Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Racing 30th September

Moonee Valley R8 N10 Sol Brilliante - 2 units to win
Drops back in grade and is quite well off at the weights. Should get gun run behind the leaders and is up against a field consisting mostly of first uppers or horses no longer at their peak.

Well I got the pattern completely wrong with Sol Brilliante settling down near the back and storming home for 5th. It was a good run but I'm always wary of horses that get back that far.

Bank 88.2
Profit -11.8
Turnover 155.5
POT -7.20%

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

UK Soccer - 29th Sept

Cardiff to beat Derby - 2 units @ $1.91
Liverpool to beat Fiorentina - 2 units @ $1.95

Selections courtesy of Football Betting (and More)

Well Cardiff gave Derby a touch up but Liverpool were very disappointing against the Italians.

Bank 90.2
Profit -9.8
Turnover 153.5
POT -6.38%

Racing 29th Sept

Just a couple of lays today but only if they are $4.00 or less

Pakenham R4 N7 Supereminent - to lose 2 units
Form is just so-so and happy to lay on a wet track at the early morning odds of $3.00. Think it will start a bit longer though and may not get to lay it.
Started $5.50 and well beaten into 3rd. No lay though as over the $4 maximum.

Kembla Grange R3 N1 Zabrasive - to lose 2 units
Run probably looked better than it actually was last time and its ratings are no better than a lot of the others in the field. Not saying it doesn't have scope for improvement but it was very green and does get back and prepared to risk today.
1st @ $2.80. Big drifter on track (must be reading this blog - lol) from $2.00. Managd to lay it at $2.44 but no joy.

Bank 90.4
Profit 9.6
Turnover 149.5
POT -6.42%

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Racing Sept 26

Randwick R1 N2 Viking Legend - 2 units to win
Well bred youngster who seems to be looking for this trip. Racing well and should put itself into a good position.
1st @ $3.20. Got the good run and too strong in the end.

Randwick R6 N2 Racing to Win - 3 units to win
Has come back as good as ever and this doesn't look an overly strong Gr 1 race.
Probably turned in the worst run of its career. Pay to forget it went around.

Randwick R6, Quin N2 & N9 - 1 unit
Rock Kingdom is racing very well and could be only danger to RTW.
Unplaced

Randwick R7 N4 Bellagio Wynn - 1.5 unit e/w
There are a few queries on the favourites and @ $11 in the early markets looks a great each way proposition.
2nd paying $3.30 the place. Just missed out on what would have been a good collect.

Belmont R8 N6 Pillow Time - 2 units to win
Could not have been more impressive last time and have to be on it again.
Very poor

Also for those Betfair punters, a few lays if you are that way inclined.
Randwick R3 N7 Sister Madly - to lose 2 units
Figures weren't overly impressive LT and I tend to think that she has a boom on her that isn't really deserved.
2nd @ $3.00. Beaten a neck or so.

Randwick R8 N2 Madame Pedrille - to lose 2 units
Up against a very competitive mares field today and the $1.80 in the early markets is terrible value. Happy to be against her today.
1st @ $1.65. Fell in and one more bound it woould have been beaten.

An eventful day with the end result being a loss of 0.6 units. However can feel some confidence coming back and with a bit of luck could have had a nice profit for the afternoon.

Bank 92.4
Profit -7.6
Turnover 147.5
POT -5.15%

Friday, September 25, 2009

No selections today

Good meeting at Moonee Valley tonight but the weather is rubbish so could play havoc with the track conditions and bias.

Also off to see the Jersey Boys (its not as gay as it sounds) this evening and I don't want to be wondering how my bets are going whilst there.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Racing 24th September

Hawkesbury R9 N2 Hashasan - 3 units to win
Raced against the likes of O'Lonhro and Snow Alert last campaign and now drops to a midweek Class 2. In top stable and its early win was over todays trip of 1400m. Rest of the field isn't great and although it will be short it should win.

All I can say is that there must have been something amiss with it today. Never got on the bit, was well beaten 600 out and just finished in front of a few stragglers in the end.

However thats the 2nd time in 2 days that a Waterhouse fresh runner (either 1st or 2nd up) has not performed as expected. Normally if they weren't fit you would expect the market to give some sort of a sign but in both cases they were well supported. Am going to have a better look at fresh horses from this stable over the next week and see if there is a real pattern happening.

Bank 93
Profit -7
Turnover 132.5
POT -5.28%



Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Racing 22nd September

Warwick Farm R7 N7 Merensky Reef - 1.5 units to win
Waterhouse gelding first up over 1400m. Looks to be the likely leader in a field full of backmarkers. The wide barrier at the W/Farm 1400m isn't so bad and actually will probably help as far as value is concerned. Has been racing in far better company than the rest of these (last start in Frank Packer Plate) and stable usually has its horses primed from the get-go.

Has been supported in the early markets ($4.00 into $3.80) so should be fit. Not overly keen on backing horses who are first up each way as in my experience they either win or do nothing. Hence the win only play here.

Apologies for the late write-up. Have been crook the last 24 hours.

Merensky Reef ended up starting favourite @ $2.25 which was way unders in my book. Got out fast as expected, took a trail behind the leader and loomed as the winner on the corner. However its condition gave out in the final 200m and was well beaten in the end for 2nd.

Bank 96
Profit -4
Turnover 129.5
POT -3.09%

Monday, September 21, 2009

Racing 21st September

Wagga R4 N1 Asquick Aszariz 2 units to win
Good win last time and doesn't meet much here. Only query is the drop back to 1200 from 1400 but he does look to have a bit on these.
1st @ $2.20
Jumped straight to the front and the result was never in doubt.

Bank 97.5
Profit -2.5
Turnover 128
POT -1.95%


Saturday, September 19, 2009

AFL Update

Have had 5 units on Cwood @ +16.5 ($2.00) meaning that if they lose between 0-16, we win 10 units with a zero liability.

I like these type of books !!!!!

Pies smashed by 70+ points so they couldn't fall in the hole for me. Again no losses and I will do this type of bet every day of the week if I get the chance.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 126
POT -3.88%


Racing 19th Sept

Caulfield R9 N3 Light Vision - 2 units e/w
$9 in current markets and has scope to improve. In strong stable and looks likely to get a good run on the pace.
2nd @ $6.50, $2.00 place.
Looked the winner with 150 to go until the winner got the rails run. In saying that it did win confortably. No harm done but would hav ebeen good if it won.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 121
POT -4.04%

Friday, September 18, 2009

Racing 17th September

Canberra R4 N2 Meyerbeer - 1.5 units e/w
Am expecting the favourite to start under the odds here hence the others end up being some value. Meyerbeer seems the most likely to cause the upset. Drops from a C3 to a C1 and ran a good race last time on the tricky Canberra circuit. Young Josh Adams is an up and coming jockey and hopefully will have the horse positioned well in the run.

2nd beaten a nostril paying $2.00 the place. At least no harm done.
The bad run continues. Thats two photo finishes in two days. I try to be dispassionate about my punting but sometimes it gets hard. The favourite was well beaten into third so was correct on that score.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 117
POT -4.18%

Thursday, September 17, 2009

AFL Finals

Grand Final Quinella, SK v Geel - 5 units @ $2.00
Bit of a maths play here. The best available SK is $1.38 whilst the best available Geel is $1.40. That gives us a dividend of $1.93 meaning the $2.00 offered is well and truly overs.
If SK win tomorrow night then will be having 5 units on Collingwood at +14.5 ($2.00) meaning that if they lose beteween 0-14, I will have 10 units running around for me with zero risk.

These plays come up in the AFL every now and then and need to be taken advantage of. Of course if the Bulldogs beat SK I'm screwed but am prepared to risk it.

Racing 17th Sept

Seymour R3 N9 Zealous - 1 unit e/w
Big field should suit as there will be some pace on. Fairly consistent in maiden class and gets chance to break through today.
4th
Okay so you're drawn 7 in a 16 horse field over a staying trip on a horse that likes to get back and in a race with a bit of speed. Hmm what shall we do. Well, firstly lets get caught 3 wide for the first 800 meters. Now, lets press forward and go to the lead. Now, I'm not a jockey but I would think now that breather might be in order especially as I've got another horse whipping around the outside. No, we won't let it in. Lets clap the pace on. 100 meters to go. I can't win but can hold on for 3rd. SO lets drop the hands and not see the horse flying down the outside grab the minor placing.

This is what actually happened.

I've never been a fan of S Arnold and this ride today just backs it up. According to the boffins at Smartform his last 50 rides have yielded a shocking -52.7% POT which sums him up at the moment. He's been given life with no possibility of parole from me.

Bank 95.1
Profit -4.9
Turnover 117
POT -4.18%

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Racing Sept 15

Warrnambool R8 N1 Waltzes -3 units to win
Beautifully bred and has been quite impressive only two starts to date. Softish ground no problem and should get good sit on the speed.
1st @ $1.70 - Not overly impressive but got the chocolates

Bank 97.1
Profit -2.9
Turnover 115
POT -2.52%

Tennis US Open

Wow - what a win by the big guy. Always thought he was the Argentinian version of the Scud but it appears he has loads more intestinal fortitude than him. To thrash Nadal and then beat Federer in five at the ripe old age of 20 is a sign of a seriously good player.

Anyway I managed to get rid of 2.5 units at $1.40 early in the 5th set which meant my eventual book had Del Potro winning me 15 units and Federerer winning me 5 units.

All in all a successful tournalment for me that has almost rescued my dreadful last few weeks. To be only 5 units down whilst in a horror patch is a good sign and shows the virtue of being a bit versatile with your punting.

Bank 95
Profit -5
Turnover 112
POT -8.48%

PS : Have to thank Scott from Sport is Made for Betting for the Del Potro tip. He is a genius on the tennis.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Tennis US Open

I managed to get another 1.5 units out of Wozniaski when she broke early in the first but alas she just could not go on with it. Clijsters had too many weapons for her and Wozniaski's serve was particularly vulnerable. That said it doesn't say much for womens tennis when a girl out of the game for over 2 years can come back and win a major on her first attempt. Not only that she blew away an opponent in the final who had been one of the form players of the year.

Del Potro was very impressive beating Nadal but don't know what Rafa's fitness is like at the moment. The form could be misleading or it could be very, very good. I'm not going to do anything until the match gets underway and see how it pans out.

Am going to ease up on the gallops tips for a while. Been trying to tip winners every day and its not good when you go searching for them. I think suconsciously I''m selecting horses that I normally wouldn't and ignoring certain criteria that I have that would normally mean me ignoring them. That said, I will still be analysing races that interest me every day and if one pops up will ertainly post it. If anything else, you might be able to lay it on Betfair !!!!!!!

Bank 80
Profit -20
Turnover 112
POT -17.85%

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Racing Sept 13

Sunshine Coast R4 N12 Magic Cashel 2.5 units win
Heavily supported at first ever start and in good stable. Both runs have been solid and with a bit of pace on here gets its chance to win. Should be decent odds with a few in the market under the odds in my opinion.
4th running on. Think this horse has got a bit of potential as a stayer and am going to stick with it.

Scone R6 N1 Aspire 2 units to win
Couldn't have been more impressive LT winning his maiden by 7 lengths. Drawn the outside here but not much speed early and could get across to lead. Slight query at the 1100m but you have to be on it after its last win.
A silly bet in hindsight. Worked hard to lead them and compounded in the straight.

Tennis Update
Well, Wosniacki got through to the final where she meets Clijsters. Did some business on Betfair and I have Wosniacki winning me 9.5 units and Clijsters winning me 1 unit. May trade during the match but reasonably happy with that position at the moment.
In the mens Del Potro meets Nadal tomorrow in the semi finals and frankly anything could happen there. Not that confident but fingers crossed.

Bank 78.5
Profit -21.5
Turnover 112
POT -19.19%




Saturday, September 12, 2009

English Premier League Sept 12

West Ham Asian Hcp v Wigan +0 & +0.5 , 2.5 units @ $1.90
Selection courtesy of Football Betting and More blog

West Ham lost 1-o and so did my wager :-(

Bank 81.5
Profit -17
Turnover 107.5
POT -14.88%
Pending 1.5

Racing Sept 12

Moonee Valley R2 No8 Keltara 2 units to win
Races on the speed and has good ratings for this. Great value at the early market of $9.
Unplaced @ $8.00
Rosehill R2 No10 Empire Place 3 units to win
Gets in well at the weights here and goes well at track and distance
Unplaced @ $3.50
Rosehill R3 No1 Obama 3 units to win
In top stable and is improving from race to race. Races on the speed.
2nd @ $4.00
Rosehill R4 N12 Sister Madly 2 units to win
Stable has good strike rate and was unlucky at its first start. Great value here.
1st @ $5.00
Yarra Valley R4 N12 Silkyanna 3.5 units too win
Miles down in class and should be too good for these.
1st @ $1.70
Note : Some selections courtesy of smartform.com.au

Very small profit made on the gallops today.

Bank 84
Profit -14.5
Turnover 105
POT -13.81%
Pending 1.5

Friday, September 11, 2009

Racing - 11th September

Geelong - R5 N4 French Secret 1 unit e/w
Been given some mail on this from the stable to say that it has been working well and should go okay fresh. Field is very moderate.

Other than that no selections at the moment. I assumed yesterday that there would be no racing today due to the jockeys strike (will comment on that later) so barely even looked at the form for today.

I guess we all know what happens when you back a horse each way in the middle of a rough trot. Yes, thats right they come fourth..

Bank 82.85
Profit -15.65
Turnover 91.5
POT -17.1%
Pending 1.5



Thursday, September 10, 2009

10th September Update

Again, nothing on the racing front today although a few were close.

Wosniacki did the right thing dismantling the upstart American teenager Oudin 6-2 6-2. She is a ball retrieving machine and I quite fancy her chances if she gets to meet Clijsters in the final. Serena is probably another story though. Interestingly she is still $6.60 on Betfair to win the tournalment. Given that she wil most probably be $1.20 in her semi, that means that the public think she's a $5.50 chance in the final. I doubt she will start that big against Serena and she would be a genuine $2.50 chance against Clijsters (if not better).

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Tennis Update - Horse Racing 9th September

Firstly, nothing from the gallops today. Just not enough there to interest me.

On to the tennis.
Andy Murray being eliminated has opened it up for Del Potro. However he still has to get through Cilic, Nadal (probably) and Federer (probably). He's a flaky customer so therefore am happy to get rid of my initial stake @ $6.80 leaving me with 17.5 units running around for nothing. Will probably leave any future trades if and when he makes the final.

On the womens side, I''m happy to leave the Wozniacki bet alone for the time being. Hopefully she gets through Oudin tomorrow and from there she 'should' make the final. We really need an upset in the Clijsters v Williams match to get some trading happening.

Bank 84.85
Profit -13.65
Turnover 89.5
POT -15.25
Pending 1.5
Trades : Del Potro win 17.5 to lose 0 units

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

AFL premiership betting

My market and thoughts with 6 teams remaining

St Kilda : $1.90
Geelong : $5.00
Bulldogs : $9.00
Collingwood : $12.00
Adelaide : $14.00
Brisbane : $67.00

St Kilda
Look extremely focused and the team to beat. The $2.60 you can get at the moment is overs in my opinion. Have a bit of an over reliance on Riewoldt and if anything should happen to him, their chances go south accordingly.
Geelong
A lot of their key players are getting older and they just don't seem as hungry as they once were. A lot rests on how Steve Johnson comes back as he is the key to their success.
Bulldogs
Disappointing last week but should win against Brisbane guaranteeing them a spot against St Kilda in the preliminary final. Have virtually no injuries which is about the only reason I can find for them having a chance.
Collingwood
The loss of Pendlebury has virtually killed off any chances they had of winning. Face a very good Adelaide side this week which will soften them up even further should they make it.
Adelaide
Are $1.80 this week and if they get through will face Geelong where they would be about $3.00 and then probably St Kilda where they would be about $3.50 - hence the 'supposed' good odds of $14.00. They are between $7 and $10 at the moment which is shocking value. You will do far better backing them on an all up basis.
Also must take into account that Adelaide would probably be the bookies and layers best result so you would expect their various match day prices to be quite generous.
I quite like them and think they will give Geelong a real good run for their money if they make it to the Prelim.
Brisbane
Fell in against a very ordinary Carlton side in a game where I expected them to win easily. Too many injuries and barring a miracle cannot win.

Betting recomendations
back St Kilda to win flag @ $2.60
back Adelaide to win this week, then have the profits to win the following week.

Horse Racing - 8th September

Warwick Farm - R3 No 3 Jonka Tiki - 1 unit each way
Is $12.00 in early markets. Has good 2nd up form and there a few queries on the others. Has produced the best ratings of any horse in the race so no doubt the ability is there. Happy to have a small bet at the value.

Just held on for 3rd paying $4.70 the place.

Bank 82.85
Profit -13.65
Turnover 87.5
POT -15.6%
Pending 3.5

Monday, September 7, 2009

Horse Racing - 7th September

Quirindi R4 No 1 Nerund - 3 units to win
Good run last start after working early and drawn to get box seat behind leader here. Looks to have scope for improvemment and gets in well at the weights.

Meeting abandoned.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Tennis US Open - Womens

Wozniacki to win US Open - 1.5 units @ 15.5 (Betfair)
Purely a speculative bet. Her side of the draw has really opened up and if she can get through Kutznetsova tomorrow she then faces either Oudin or Petrova in the quarters. The other likely semi finalist is going to be unseeded so you would think she gets through to the final from there. If she gets that far and faces Serena in the final will trade out otherwise will hold on for the ride.

Also has the added advantage of being a semi decent sort......

Horse Racing - 6th September

Cranbourne R7 N6 Venezuelan Miss - 3 units to win
Has a class edge on his rivals except for the top weight who seems to be out of form. Trained at the track and was well backed 1st up indicating that 2nd up should not be a problem. Dangers 2 (leader) and 5 (sound 2nd up record but distance query).

Absoloutly terrible run. Again there may have been a leader bias and it was 2nd up but I still got it horribly wrong. Going to have to re-think some aspects of my strategy.

Have been milling it over and it could come down to the good horses resuming in the spring running against the moderate ones coming off a winter. Also, have to conncentrate on horses that are going to be in the first half of the field in the run, preferably the first six. I usually try to do so but maybe I've been blind sighted a bit by run on horses of late and its getting a bit costly.

Ironic of course that as soon as I start this blog, it starts going a bit pear shaped. Bad trots do happen though and its important to understand and recognise it.

Bank 81.65
Profit -15.85
Turnover 85
POT -18.64%
Pending 2.5

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Horse Racing 5th September

Flemington R2 N8 Shamoline Warrior 2.5 units to win
No real reason other than that I''ve been given a good tip for it from the stable where it has apparantly been working the place down.

Brisbane R6 N7 Judge Me Not - 3 units to win
Honest horse who has produced in better races than what he meets today. Gets in on the minimum here and should prove hard to beat.

Belmont Park - R2 N4 Miss Timed - 3 units to win
Last 2 ultra impressive and looks hard to hold out here.

Disappointing results today. Shamoline Warrior appeared to be caught in the worst part of the track but the buzz from the Kavanagh stable is big on this horse so I'm going to stick with it.
Judge Me Not was 3W throughout and only went down by a length whilst there were no excuses for Miss Timed.

Whilst Saturday's offer the best racing its often hard for me to properly research the races as I have golf in the morning and often I have to rush. Will be paying far more attention in future. Also think I get stuck in the "oh its Saturday and its good racing I must have to have a few selections" which is just flawed thinking. Ironically I did back a winner later in the day (which I didn't put up here) when I had a bit more time but I imagine that doesn't help readers of this blog !!!!!

Bank 84.65
Profit -12.85
Turnover 82
POT -15.67%
Pending 2.5



Friday, September 4, 2009

Horse Racing - 4th September

Kilmore R6 N6 - Olympias Girl 2.5 units each way.
Has shown good form this time in and relishes the softer tracks. Strike rate is a concern but is better than these. Query on the Tassie visitor (n4) whose form is hard to line up otherwise bet would have been larger. Each way special if you like the each way.
Unpl @ $3.30
Hugely disappointing. Can only put it down that it was ridden closer to the lead today and was stuck on the worst part of the track (but only guessing as haven't seen any other races at Kilmore today)

Wyong R6 N2 - Adnocon 2 units to win
Meets a decent field here but is coming back from city class where it has aquitted itself well. There is a bit of speed on here which will suit as it likes to get back and run on.
1st @ $3.80
Race panned out as mapped with the winner coming from back in the field to run out a fairly comfortable winner.

Bank 93.15
Profit - 2.35
Turnover 73.5
POT -3.20%
Pending 4.5

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Horse Racing - 3rd September

Seymour R8 N12 Roseberry Topping - 2 units to win
2nd @ $3.20
Toppy has a bit of hype to it but is up in class, well weighted and drawn poorly. Roseberry Topping has been racing in better company than what it meets today and is drawn to get a good run. It continues to improve and its last start effort with blinkers first time was very good. It keeps the blinkers again today. An each way bet would also be a good proposition if yiou are inclined that way.
A bit cursed today with my selection getting beaten by a bee's dick right on the line.

To make things worse I had 3 other selections that I considered for betting today and they all won paying $2.40, $4.40 and $5.50 respectively. Unfortunately they all had a few minor things against them so didn't want to get involved.

Bank 92.55
Profit -2.95
Turnover 66.5
POT 4.44%
Pending 4.5


Tennis update : All 3 selections safely through the first round and hopefully they all win their 2nd round matches tonight.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Horse Racing - 2nd September

Balaclava R3 No15 Tantomile - 2 units to win
Lightly raced Hayes horse still to break his maiden. Opened up short odds on debut at Moonee Valley so stable obviously has opinion of him. A bit of speed on and with Rhys Plumb now on board hopefully it settles down midfield and comes over the top of them.

Another welcome winner and this time at the good odds of $5.00. Hopefully we have put the bad trot behind us.

Bank 94.55
Profit -0.95
Turnover 64.5
POT -1.47%

Pending 4.5


Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Horse Racing - 1st September

A new month so lets hope for some better results on the gallops.

Ipswich R8 No 4 Jewelled Gate - 2 units to win
Improving type who should get a gun run. Query on No 1 (1st up from Vic) and No 9 (decent 2nd up form who has produced good ratings in the past).

1st @ $3.10
At last a winner !!!!!
Got to the front and led all the way

Bank 86.55
Profit -9.95
Turnover 62.5
POT -15.92%
Pending 4.5