Saturday, October 31, 2009

Racing - Derby Day

Flemington r2 n1 Light Vision, 1.5 units to win
Most consistent galloper and I am prepared to overlook its last start failure in the Caulfield Cup. Back to its right grade here.
Unplaced @ $11
Obviously has had enough and just didn't run it out.
Flemington r7 n11 Typhoon Tracy, 3 units to win
Ticks all the boxes. Best mare in Australia, should get a good run by gun jockey Luke Nolen and looks very hard to beat.
1st @ $2.20
Blitzed them to win by 5 lengths
Morphetville r6 n2 Morgan Dollar, 1 units to win
Should get the good sit behind the leader here and is way down in class.
Unplaced @ $2.30
3w throughout which isn't quite how I expected the race to pan out.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Racing 30th October

Warracknabeal r4, n6 Undiscovered, 1 unit to win
Not overly keen but does have excellent form for this and if it is going to break through then today should be its day.
2nd @ $1.60
The price was ridiculous so I didn't back it but for the purpose of this blog will count it in the P&L.
In fact, if I had access to my betfair account would have been laying it for plenty. It was $3.00 in the morning market so thought that was okay value - hence the selection.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

NBA 27 October

Houston +8.5 v Portland, 2 units @ $2.04 Betfair ($1.99 with commission).
Currently 1.95 @ Pinnacle.

And wouldn't you know it, they lose by 9. In all honesty though I would have been blessed to win considering they trailed by much more throughout the game.

Monday, October 26, 2009

NBA Betting Theory




Well, another season is upon us so thought I might take the time to explain how and why I bet on the NBA.

Firstly to the why.
Now I'm not going to confess to being a basketball expert. I've probably played one organised game in my life and whilst I enjoy watching it, the last period is always infinitely more interesting and better than the first 3 periods. I do know most of the players but that is just more keeping up to date from a *fantasy perspective more than anything else.

Anyway, the reason I like it as a betting medium is :
a) the volume of matches
b) the efficiency of the market place.
Now a) speaks for itself but you're probably wondering what b) is about.

Pinnacle is the market leader in US sports betting and its market is nearly always the first to react when something is going on pre game (Player A pulls out of game, Player C starting on the bench etc). With NBA because of the number of games there is a real benefit in being the first to spot the movement and take advantage.

In Australia, corporate sports betting has really exploded however it is almost impossible for them to keep up with all the betting options they offer. One advantage of having young children is that I'm generally up at about 6am which is a time when NBA betting is getting very interesting but also is a time when the corporate bookmakers in Australia are generally asleep. So what I'm trying to do is get an 'over'. If Pinnacle (ie the marketplace) say the Nets are +4.5 @ +$1.93 but Centrebet have the line at +5.0 @ $1.93 then I will bet - I am getting a +0.5 edge.
It doesn't seem like much but over a long period it adds up.

In an overall season all I want to do is make 2% -> 5% POT on NBA. I'm happy with that. Some years I will make a small loss. Other years I will make a better profit. But by just betting the over I should be ahead in the long run.

As to the how.

Now you need accounts all over the place which I have. As far as betting is concerned I generally only look at teams who are underdogs in the 0 -> +8.5 range and the favourites in the 0 -> -5.5 range. The reason being is that once a team gets well in front a coach will often take his good players off in the last 5 or so minutes and give his bench players a run. The NBA is not concerned about percentage or points for. All a team wants is the win.

Occasionally I will back a team straight out if I am getting a good over but by and large it will be the underdog.

Thats it. Fairly simple really. Please bear in mind that if you do follow my selections that it is important that you get the odds and line I specify (or better of course). Whilst the Nets +4.5 @ $1.91 might be value, they are definitely not value if you take +4.0 @ $1.90.

Just one other thing. By backing the over it means that by and large you are backing a team that is well supported. Which therefore means that smarter people than you and me think that particular betting option is a good chance. Its nice to have that on your side as well.....

Hope that is useful.

Sidenote : fantasy basketball is probably the best fantasy game to play because of the consistency of all the major stat categories.

Racing October 26

Pakenham R5 n1 Cheddington, 1.5 units to win
On paper looks a certainty however get back style and small field means I have to reduce my bet.
3rd @ $1.80
In hindsight a bad bet on a race that had too many negatives comparable to the price that was taken.

Coonabarabran r6 n7 Gather, 1 unit to win
Miles down in class and worth a look at the early market of $8.00.
Unplaced @ $5.50
Never a hope and very disappointing.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Racing October 25

Mt Gambier, r2 n12 Carthy Road, 1.5 units to win.
1st @ $2.80 (betfair)
Rounded them up and won easily by 3 lengths.

I realise $2.8 is about $2.7 after commission on betfair but I want to keep the running total to one decimal place if I can so permit me the indulgence of rounding up......

Saturday, October 24, 2009

UK Football 24th October

Preston v Middlesborough - 2 units Preston (draw no bet) @ $1.83.
Courtesy Football Beeting (and more) Blog
Preston score in the 90th minute to draw and rescue the bet.....

Racing October 24

Morphetville r2 n5 Liffeybel, 2.5 units to win
Seems to be looking for this trip and looks to be the likely leader in a race with no speed which is always advanntageous around Morphetville Parks. Tellingly, this is the only horse Victorian trainer Jim Mason has brought over to SA for the day. At $7.00 in the early markets ranks as an excellent value bet.
Unplaced @ $8.00
Led as expected but was taken on mid race for a short burst or so which basically killed off his chances. Probably the only leader to get beaten in the first five races too. Oh well !!!!


Doomben r7 n2 Mitanni, 1 unit to win
Class runner of the field whose runs this time back haven't been as bad as they seem. Should get the gun run from the inside barrier and I can envisage it being about 3 back the fence. Some of the favourites in the race have a few queries on them in my opinion and $21 is massive overs. Has a 75% win and place strike rate at Doomben.
3rd @ $15
Settled 3 back the fence and ran on moderatly for third

Thats it for the day.
If you twisted my arm in the Cox Plate I would have something each way Scenic Shot. Its a very open race and I couldn't bring myself to back any of the favourites in what is essentially a raffle. Scenic Shot would be the best outsider I would consider backing.
Readers of this blog will know I've been spruiking So You Think for the past 2 months. Unfortunately wasn't in it yesterday as :
a) thought it would start unders due to the Cummings factor..
b) extremely tough to win a Cox Plate at your first prep with just 5 runs under your belt.

Of course a is linked to b and it strolled home to win by 3 lengths.

I can't wait for the autumn when More Joyous and So You Think clash in the big races. To my mind they are the best two middle distance horses in Australia and by a fair way too.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Nothing again for today

Its not that I haven't been looking.
Just that there is nothing that I''m really keen on backing.

Am sure we'll have some selections for tomrrow.

No golf tomorrow so reckon I will have them up around 9am or so.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Racing 21st October

Some good priced selections today so if we connect with just one of them a profit should be made.

Geelong r7, n2 Southern Skye - 1.5 units (win)
1st @ $14
Geelong r8, n10 Hoorang - 1 unit (win)
unplaced @ $21
Canterbury r2, n2 Zeebac - 1.5 unit (win)
2nd @ $8
Strathalbyn r8, n9 Adams Peak - 2 units (win)
unplaced @ $7

Terrific day with Southern Skye landing the Geelong Derby Trial at the great fixed odds of $14. Think it started around $11 in the end. Paul Perry is a terrific trainer and always needs to be watched in these black type races.
Zeebac had every chance and just wasn't good enough whilst the other two were beaten easily.

Anyway we're now well back in profit and travelling at over 10% POT which is probably too high in my opinion but we may as well ride our luck while we can.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Racing 19th October

Tamworth r5 n1 Artillerist - 2 units to win
2nd @ $2.40
Tamworth r8 n2 Bahrain - 1 unit to win
2nd @ $5.50

Well it looks like that '2nd' flu is back again.......

Saturday, October 17, 2009

UK Soccer - 17th October

Blackpool to beat Plymouth - 3 units @$1.85
Courtesy Football Betting (and more) Blog

Easy 2-0 victors.

Racing 17th October

Sorry, in a rush again today so has to be short but sweet.

Ascot R2 N4, Test The Angels 1.5 units to win
Unplaced
Caulfield R4 n2 Shamoline Warrior 3 units to win
1st @ $3.60
Caulfield r8 n2 Kirklees 2 units to win
Unplaced - disgusting ride by K McEvoy. How do you get caught 3w from barrier 6 for the whole trip ?
Randwick r3 n3 Yallingup 2 units to win
Unplaced
Randwick r4 n2 Bandar 1.5 units to win.
Unplaced

Day ended in a slight profit thanks to Shamoline Warrior however the other runners were all disappointing. Great ride by B Rawiller on Viewed to get the Caulfield Cup and the less said about K McEvoys performance on Kirklees the better.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Caulfield Cup Preview

The second biggest race on the Australian racing calender is on tomorrow and I might need some guidance from some of my UK friends here with the imported horses zooming into favouritism.

I have narrowed it down to four chances with one main hope.

Kirklees
Racing in tip top form in the UK and last start winners for some reason have a terrific record in this race - especially the overseas horses (Taufans Melody and All The Good in the last decade). Kirklees has drawn well and races on the speed which is always super imprtant at Caulfield. Should be either leading or just behind the lead and if it has travelled okay must be the one to beat.

Predatory Pricer
The best of the local horses. Its form has been terrific this time in and although some people are querying whether it will stay the trip there is no doubt in my mind as it should have won the AJC Derby back in Autumn which was over the same distance. Has drawn out though and it will either have to get back or race forward early which is against its usual pattern. If it can slot into a good spot then it will go very close but its a big if.

Allez Wonder
4yo mares used to have a great record in this race and is trained by the master Bart Cummings. Surprised all last week with its win at 50/1 but that must indicate that it is super ready for this. Has got a good alley and would expect it to be sitting in the first 10 or so come the final 5 furlongs. Definite value at the 16/1.

Cima De Triomphe
A 4th to Sea The Stars looks good on paper but it was beaten 10.5 lengths. Think it will go around unders but no doubt it has the ability. Apparantly has been working the place down and has the best jockey in Australia (D Oliver) on board so it should get every possible chance.

Will post bets tomorrow but welcome any feedback.

Racing 16th October

Townsville r1 n1Columbia Queen - 1.5 units to win
Unplaced
Taree r4 n4 Onethingatatime - 2 units to win
1st @ $2.00
Taree r5 n2 Pastorial Pursuits - 2 units to win
1st @ $3.80
Taree r8 n2 Dance At Midnight - 2 units to win
1st @ $2.50
Sorry haven't got much time for explanations today.

Well, back with a vengeance today lifting me well into profits since the blog began.

Bank 108
Profit 8
Turnover 182.5
POT 4.38%


Thursday, October 15, 2009

Racing 15th October

Ipswich R4 n12 Zaman - 1.5 units to win
Improving type who gets the chance to break his maiden today. Racing pattern a bit of a concern on the tight turning track at Ipswich but hopefully Cassidy can get him into a reasonable position.
2nd @ $2.50

Another fucking 2nd - thats 3 in a row now.

Bank 99
Profit -1
Turnover 175
POT -0.57%

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Racing 14th October

Caulfield R6 n1 Melito - 2 units to win

Sorry for the late post but had to wait to see how the track bias played out and if the weather had detioriated.
The good news for Melito is that the expected heavy rain hasn't come. There seems to no track bias with it just favouring leaders if forced to choose.

Melito has been running behind the superstar filly in Sydney, More Joyous who would give most of these are towelling. There are significant queries on most of the favoured runners. In my opinion the Melbourne fillies aren't that good.

She is at $8.00 in early betting and represents significant value.
2nd @ $5.50

Heavily supported from $8 into $5.50 and just failed to get there (although the winner on face value looked impressive)

Bank 100.5
Profit 0.5
Turnover 173.5
POT 0.29%

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Fantasy NBA Draft

A bit of a diversion from the usual.

Just had the annual NBA fantasy draft tonight and I ended up with pick 10 (12 teams in the comp).

Say hello to the 2009/2010 Monday Night E-Graders fantasy Champions

Deron Williams
Gerald Wallace
Jason Richardson
Caron Butler
Marcus Camby
Rashard Lewis
Brook Lopez
Mo Williams
Andrei Kirilenko
Chris Anderson
Chris Kaman
Mike Bibby
Shaun Livingston

Its a good solid team with no superstars but hopefully they will get the job done.

We score our league as : 1 point (per point), 1.5 per rebound, 2 points per assist, 3 point per block and steal, -0.5 per missed field goal and free throw, -1.0 per turnover.

I love my fantasy comps and the NBA is probably my favourite one of all so forgive me if I bore you all occasionally with details....

Racing 13th October

Grafton r7 n1 Promonotory - 2 units to win
Ex Victorian horse who ran into a smart one last time where they ran quick time. Likely to settle either outside the leader or in the first four which will be a big advantage in this apprentices only race.
2nd @ $2.40
Didn't see or hear the race so can't comment.

Bank 102.5
Profit 2.5
Turnover 171.5
POT 1.45%

Friday, October 9, 2009

Racing 10th October

Extremely difficult day tomorrow across all 4 states with not many standouts.

Pakenham R7 n3 Marker 2 units to win
Gear change last start seemed to make a big difference and it turned in an impressive effort. Races near the speed which is handy in the tight Pakenham circuit.
Scratched

Caulfield r3 n4 Avenue 2 units to win
Looks to be a bit above average and this field isn't overly strong. If she has the ability I think she has should beat these.
1st @ $2.50

Caulfield r6 n10 Pinnacles 0.5 units each way
Looked to be back to his best last time and at $31 in the early markets is a great value chance in an almost impossible race.
Scratched

Caulfield R7 n7 So You Think 3 units to win
Has been running some sensational figures in Sydney. The 1600 at Caulfield is a strong 1600 and is one that will run it right out. Trained by the big race master, Bart Cummings who has a good record with the Caulfield Guineas. Think it will settle just forward of midfield and hopefully run over the top of them.
Unplaced

Morphetville R3 n4 You Dee Cee 1.5 units to win
Speed machine who won his only race by 8 lengths in a run that was ultra impressive. First up from a spell here and have to be on it.
1st @ $8.oo

Well at last after a horrific month and a half we're back in profit. Its always a punters lament but I really wish I had have had more on You Dee Cee. This horse has a ton of ability and it easily took care of that weak field. Watch for it over the Flemington carnival as it can defintely win a straight race there.

Bank 104.5
Profit 4.5
Turnover 169.5
POT 2.65%

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Racing 7th October

Balaclava R5 N6 Teivovo - 1 unit to win..
A bit of a speculative one here. NSW visitor having its first start in SA for the very good Richard Jolly stable. Has opened up $3.00 favourite at IAS and field isn't overly strong. If it gets out past $4.00 then no bet otherwise its worth some interest.
Ist @ $3.80

Got the split on the corner to win handily. It actually drifted out to $4.20 at one stage but was backed late in betting. The R Jolly stable is one of the most astute 'unknown' stables in Oz and is one always worth following especially if there are some telling betting patterns.

Will be having a spell for the next two days as have got some things on at work but its good to see that the bad patch looks like it has finished.

Bank 94.5
Profit -5.5
Turnover 163
POT -3.37%

Monday, October 5, 2009

Racing 5th October

Hamilton r4 n7 Bad Angel - 1.5 units to win
Ballina r9 n8 Hajjar - 2 units to win

Edit : Have taken down all Warwick Farm bets due to state of the track. Watch them all win now !!!!

Well at last a good priced winner with Bet Angel saluting at the nice odds of $8.00. Unfortunately Hajjar couldn't make it a quinella for me.

Sorry for the skinny updates lately. Having some issues at home with the kids sleeping and its hard to get time to even eat dinner let alone do form and update the blog. I pray that this is only a passing issue as its not overly fun at the moment.

Bank 91.7
Profit -8.3
Turnover 162
POT -5.12%

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Knackered

Have had 3 hours of sleep (thanks kids) and played 18 very ordinary holes of golf this morning. No time to really look at the form and will spend the afternoon on the couch just having little interest bets.

Thanfully, the boys grandmother has offered (well, after I asked anyway) to take them off our hands for the rest of the day so will get some peace and quiet.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Racing 2nd October

Canberra R3 N5 Sellout - 2 units to win
Easy winner in similar class last time and shapes as though extra distance will suit.

LAY
Canberra R8 N5 Dayalla - to lose 2 units at no greater than $3.50
This is a bit harder than its maiden win and may not get iots own way in front.

Sellout was always chasding and never looked likely. On the lay front Dayella was well beaten however started at $4.50 so didn''t fir my lay criteria.

Bank 83.2
Profit -16.8
Turnover 158.5
POT -10.60%

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Punting Update

Well I can officially say am now on my worst run in at least 12 months. Probably close to 2 years. I've lost count of the number of each way 4th's or close seconds that have occured and you can't help but lose some confidence after a while.

The PGA tour usually provides me with some respite but I refuse to get involved in that mickey mouse Fed Ex cup as the fields are just too shallow. Also often they are playing on newish courses where you can't get a grip on who is suited and not suited.

Tennis is also entering a bit of a twilight zone at this time of year so its hard to have an interest there either.

The good news is that the NBA starts in a few weeks and I've been profitable there for three years running so maybe that might kick start something.

Going to keep battling away with the gallops. As I've said previously it is a hard time of year with horses being fresh and others coming off winter tracks into the harder spring tracks. The tide will hopefully turn soon.

In other developments have also been tinkering on Betfair with the harness racing. Betfair have now introduced 'in run' betting on the major Friday night meetings and I have been watching it with interest. The theory goes that if you can spot the leader prior to the race it will shorten dramatically in the run if it finds the lead. Then its just a matter of laying it and 'greening up'. Have only been playing with small wagers at the moment but it has been successful. The liquidity on in run betting isn't great so its hard to get too involved but its a definite possibility once it gets a bit more popular.

Onwards and upwards anyway. I've had worse runs than this before and its never stopped me. The key is to remain disciplined and not chase the losses which I've been doing.

Racing 1st October

Ipswich R4 N6 Magic Cashel 1.5 units e/w
Steps up to the 1600m which it seems to be wanting and gets chance to break his maiden here. Horse will be sacked if it can't get home today.

Sorry for lack of updates - just had a lot on. Will update balances tonight hopefully.

Magic Cashel now goes on my sack list after proving costly for the 2nd time (watch it go around and win at double figure odds next start now...).

Bank 85.2
Profit -14.8
Turnover 156.5
POT -9.45%