Sunday, November 29, 2009

Racing November 29th

Wodonga r9 n12 Airways, 1.5 units to win.
Guaranteed speed on here with Intelligencia set to go out hard. Lot to like about Airways last 2 runs and even though its best racing is fresh is still 3rd up and should still be at its peak. Drawn the inside and I can see it 3 back the fence getting a nice trail. $7 into $5 in early markets.
Unplaced @ $4.00
Was always struggling to maintain touch with the tearaway leader and had no sprint left when it counted

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Racing 28th November

Kensington r2 n8 Star Ripper, 2 units to win.
Following up after its very impressive last start performance. Gets in on the minimum here against a moderate bunch of Saturday class stayers. I think he's up to this.
1st @ $4.80
Got off the bit about 600 out and I thought it was gone. However showed plenty of fight to win quite comfortably in the finish. Could be a very good stayer next preparation but think it might have nearly had enough this time in.

Moonee Valley r6 n1 Posadas, 2 units to win
Gutsy sprinter who gave his all last time and just beaten by very good horse. Drawn perfectly, carries weight well and think it will either lead or possy up behind. Danger could be Beltrois first up as it is the unknown quantity.
1st @ $3.00
Got out to $3.30 in the end so am a bit disappointed missing the best fluc. Gutsed it out to win by a neck but never reallly looked like losing.

Moonee Valley r7 n9 Hannahbanana, 1.5 units to win.
The favourite is going to go around unders here as it is a get back type and I don't think inside barriers suit. Hannahbanana appeals as it is the only leader in a small field - factors which I always like. Has the experienced S King on board and the $12 earty market appeals as terrific value.
Unplaced @ $14
Led early but was then taken on. Kicked on the corner and I thought it could go on but the early pressure told and it knocked up in the last 100m. Quite a good run under the circumstances. Favourite was well beaten @ $2.60 for the layers out there.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Racing 27th November

Orange r1 n1 Flogsdream - 2 units to win.
Slight question mark over the trip but other than that has all the others covered on a times and weights basis. Ultra consistent and rarely runs a bad race.
1st @ $1.95
Came over the top of them to run out an easy winner.

Orange r7 n5 Mosseltov - 1.5 units to win
Although the favourite has been racing well, I think its shockingly under the odds considering the class rise and the weight its carrying. Mosseltov has a good 2nd up record and its effort first up was quite impressive. Has a habit of beginning slowly though but if things go its way should be extremely hard to beat here.
3rd @ $7.00
Seemed to have its chances and just not goood enough on the day.

NBA 26th November

Atlanta -3.0 @ $1.92 (IASBET) v Orlando - 2 units

Been monitoring a new theory on NBA lately and its time to put it into practice. Lets see how it goes using real money.
Beaten by about 13 in the end but I'm going to stick with this for the moment. I reckon the NBA has cost me about 15 units so far this season which is not good.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Racing 25th November

Betfair Park r3 n8, Jewel Thief - 1.5 units to win
Tough race but this one is lightly raced, has a good draw and has been running some good times at its only 2 starts. In the powerful Moody stable with leading jockey Luke Nolen on board. $7.00 in the early markets. Too many ticks to ignore.
2nd @ $8.00
Beaten a nose. Winner looks smart but Jewel Thief didn't get too many favours in the straight either.

Warwick Farm r4 n11 Trebbiano - 1 unit to win
Improving type and seems to like drawing inside horses. Can sprint quickly which will suit here as most of the favoured runners are dour backmarkers.
Unplaced @ $7.00
Had the perfect run but just didn't run the trip.

Eagle Farm r5 n11 Coroner - 2 units to win
Drops from Saturday to midweek class here and it was most competitive in strong race last time. Looks to be the only leader and if it can get its own way in front could prove to be too hard to catch. $5.00 in the early markets is big overs in my opinion.
1st @ $5.00
Bounced straight to the front and was never headed. Heavily backed into $4.00 late.

Another nice profitable day which could have been even better with a touch more luck. However can't complain too much. Have just started increasing my wagers in the last week due to my hot form so lets hope it continues until Christmas so the kids get some decent presents !!!!!!

The wife might even get something too.....

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Update

Sorry - no selections in rtecent days.

In Victoria we had a day of record rainfall which has meant that some of the tracks have become rain affected. Since most of the current form is based on firm ground I am loath to bet on a singe wet track day. Tracks are okay today but noting stands out in Sale.

In NSW, they are undergoing a record heat spell for November. Again, horses can behave unpredictably in the heat so would prefer to give that state a miss for a few days until everything settles down there.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Racing November 21

Kembla Grange r4 n5 Scores, 1.5 units to win.
Improving type looking for this trip. Small field should suit and looks to have a good chance in this.
3rd @ $5.50
Led them up but just wasn't good enough.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Racing November 20th

Ararat r4 n5 Bush Music, 1 unit to win
Has a poor strike rate but meets a very average field here and should get all the favours from its good draw. Form has been quite reasonable this time in and the $7 appeals as good value.
Unplaced @ $10. Poor strike rate continues !!!!

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Racing November 18th

Doomben r4 n1 Tightrope, 2 units to win
Looks well suited in this weakish field. Should be a bit of pace on and I will loook for it to come over the top of them. $2.30 in early markets which is about right. Bet above $2.00 or more.
2nd @ $2.50
Was a big drifter on Betfair - started $2.90. Jockey rode it forward today and doubt if that suited.

Doomben r7 n6 Satula, 1 unit to win
Form looks poor but the race could be set up for it. Is capable of running a quick last 600 and if the pace is on as expected could swamp them (well thats the idea anyway....). $10 in early markets.
Unplaced @ $15
Good run. Ran on nicely to be beaten just on two lengths. Didn't seem to get balanced in the straight. Definitely one worth following in the right type of race.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Racing 17th November

Warwick Farm r2 n5 Star Ripper, 2 units to win
Immacuately bred mare who seems to have really come good in recent weeks. Demolished a weak field last start by 5.5 lengths and while this is stronger it is not full of any world beaters either. Gets in on the minimum here, trained by the master of stayers Bart Cummings and ridden by in form jockey P Robl. That will do me.....
1st @ $4.00

Sat outside the leader and bolted in by 3 lengths. Looks a promising galloper and may be one to follow next year.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Racing 16th November

Townsville r6 n10 Black Sequin, 1 unit to win.
Drawn to get a good run here and most of the favoured runners have wide barriers which is no advantage at all on the turning 1630m Townsville circuit. Good performance last time and gets in well at the weights. Only a small bet as the jockey is very ordinary and certainly would not be wanting to take less than $5.00.
Unplaced @ $12
Got a nice trail but then the idiot jockey got held up behind up behind a wall of horses and never got out from about the 300m mark !!!!!
Not saying it would have won but it's nice to see them at least get a chance.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Racing 15th November

Geelong r4 n3 The Scumpa, 2 units to win.
Nothing wrong with its last win, running a quick last 600 that I doubt any in this field can match. Looks to be on the improve and with Mark Flaherty on board should get every possible chance.
Unplaced @ $8.00
Had every possible chance I thought and was very disappointing.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Racing November 14th

Eagle Farm r3 n4 Bradfield, 1.5 units to win
Tough field but meets a few of these down in the weights and might get a soft lead in front. $4.50 in the early markets is not a bad price.
3rd @ $5.50
Led as expected and just went under by half a length

Morphetville r5 n1 Believe N Achieve, 3 units to win
Just seems to be getting better with racing and this is really no harder than what she has been meeting. Small field suits and happy to jump on at the short price ($2.00 early markets)
1st @ $2.10
Never looked like getting beaten to run out an easy winner by 2 lengths.

Kembla Grange r5 n7 Prince Of Snippers, 1 unit to win
Is going to be big odds but there could be pace on in front which will suit as he settles back. Form has been quite reasonable this time in and hasn't been that far away in some hot last half sectionals. 8 horse field will suit those who like the each way.
1st @ $12 ($17 on betfair)
Am kicking myself in a way as it was only $12 on BF with 2 minutes to go so ended up taking the best tote price which cost me some profit. But you can't be disaapointed with a double figure odds win. Sat back in the field and whilst the pace wasn't as quick as I anticipated, it got out at the top of the straight to win comfortably in the end.

Morphetville r7 n7 Al Omghe, 2 units to win
Impressive win first up from a spell and after the claim for young Maskiell comes into this race with just 52kgs after carrying 58kgs last time. Rest of the field aren't world beaters and he could be on the way up. In strong Mick Price stable. ($5.00 early markets in from $6.00)
3rd @ $4.50
Seemed to have every chance and the class rise just looked too much.

Rosehill r8 n7 Guderian, 2 units to win
Looks the likely leader and I can't see anything really pressuring it. Massive effort after being cauughht wide last time and the Paul Perry/Hugh Bowman is a combination that I love. ($2.80 into $2.50 early markets - wouldn't really want to be taking less than $2.30).
1st @ $2.80
Got straight to the front, dictated terms and bolted in.

Well that was a terrific day with a 14.4 profit made on the day. Am really seeing the form quite well lately and have made a few subtle adjustments to my race selection method which is now bearing fruit. Well above 10% POT which is quite an achievement and if I can hover between 10% and 20% for the rest of the year, I will be very happy.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Racing 12th November

Sale r7 n3 Great Gretzky, 1.5 units to win
Terrific effort first up where it met with some support in the ring indicating that it is fit. Not exactly sure where it will be in the run here hence the scaled down bet but has raced on pace prior to spell. If it does get in the first 4 will be extremely hard to beat. Take anything $3.00 and over.
Unplaced @ $7.00
Stop start pace and don't think it really appreciated it.

Once again I get above 10% POT only to be dragged back down below again. Shows how hard this game is.

NBA 12th November

Nets +5.5 @ $1.91 (Luxbet), 1.5 units - Currently +5.5 @ $1.885 @ Pinnacle
Nets lose by 3 and bet wins
T-Wolves +8.0 @ $1.95 (Luxbet), 2 units - Currently +8.0 @ $1.885 @ Pinnacle
T-Wolves get belted and bet loses

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Racing 11th November

Seymour r6 n4 La Rocket, 2 units to win
Last two starts have been excellent with bias at both tracks not suiting the on pace brigade. Gets it chance to get a nice run in the first few in this small field. Opposition are no world beaters and is quite well weighted. Only query is that it has been up for a while otherwise would have been as close to a special as you could find. Happy to take $1.80 and above. Currently $3.20 in early markets but has been backed.
1st @ $3.20 (started $2.40)
Got the sit behind the leader and always looked the winner.

Back over 10% POT again and this is where I traditionally start falling down again. Lets hope I can keep the good streak on the gallops going.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

NBA November 7th

Denver 1.5 units +3.0 ($1.95, IASBET) v Atlanta.
Currently +3.0, $1.915 @ Pinnacle.
Another bad loss. Am really getting punished this year.
Unfortunately am not putting in as much effort as I used to in previous years (ie checking every morning - its usually every 2-3 days now) due to work and child committments.
Have to have a think about what I want to do as its no use going in half cocked.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Racing November 7th

Doomben r1 n2 Cattalion, 1.5 units to win
Distance query here but can't pot its winning form. Drawn to get a gun run and a lot of the other favoured runners settle back and could be in for quite a chase.
1st @ $4.40
Just held on to win by the smallest possible margin.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Racing November 6th

Townsville r2 n8 Matiya's Pride - 2 units to win.
Has a great record this track and last win was impressive. Times have been far superior to those it meets today. Only query is the trip but has won to 1500m before and steps up to 1600m today. Wouldn't take a silly price about it but anything above $2.00 should be bet.
1st @ $5.00
Won like a genuine $2.00 chance and I eagely snapped up the $5 that was offered.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Melb Cup Day

Will have other selections soon.

As for the Cup.
Viewed on top from Roman Emperor and Alcopop. Not particularly keen on the race as the market looks about right. Newport a rough hope at the value.

Melb r4 n3 Ortensia, 3 units to win.
Looks to have lengths on the opposition here and should settle handy in the run.
Melb r5 n4 Definitely Ready, 2.5 units to win
Huge effort too win last time after playing up before the start. Ratings suggest it could be the next sprinting superstar.
Melb R6 n4 So Anyway, 2 units to win
Clear top rater here and should be at a reasonable price. Does get back so will need some pace on.

Well the less said about today, the better. I hate Melbourne Cup Day. Big fields with horses set for certain races that makes the form meaningless. Not to mention that the track invariably starts to show signs of bias after so many races being run in such a short time span. Today there was a rail about 5-9 horses off the fence and if you didn't get on that, then you were doomed.

Oaks Day won't be any better either and I doubt if you will see any tips from me on Thursday. Not at Flemington anyway.

And yes - I'm bitter. LOL.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Racing November 1st

Sunshine Coast, r3 n4 Sisula, 1.5 units to win
3rd @ $5.00
Bordertown r3 n1 Most Handsome, 1.5 units to win
1st @ $2.80

NBA October 31

New Jersey Nets v Washington
Nets 2 units @ +6.5 ($1.91) Luxbet - $1.87 at Pinnacle.
Beaten by 19. Off to a bad start in the NBA but you have to wear the bad runs. It will turn around eventually.