Thursday, December 31, 2009

Racing 31st December

Echuca r7 n2 Sivadio, 1.5 units to win
Drops in class here and its form prior to last start failure in city is good for this. Should be sitting outside leader or with trail behind the first two. In good stable with promising apprentice Jack Hill on board. Slight distance query but there is probably a query on the rest of them as well. Danger to come from the Steve Richards trained Flying Elle who could come home in a rush if there is abundant speed on. However against her is that Sivadio comprehensively beat her two starts back, she is rising 500m in distance and the weather here in Victoria is stinking hot today (about 38 degrees celcius predicted at Echuca) which is always a minus for mares.

Unplaced @ $10
Never got near them and I got the race completely wrong.....

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Racing 26th December

Firstly, Merry Xmas to all.
Secondly, sorry for the lack of selections the past week and a bit. Had a fair bit on and just haven't had any time to do any serious work.

Anyway back to business.

Caulfield r7 n9 Its Prince, 2 units e/w
Racing very consistently and back to the more suitable tighter turning track here. Don't really see much pace to speak of and the main dangers have a few things against. Extremely well weighted with a good jockey on board. Almost an each way special here.
3rd @ $8.00
Got the gun run in front but run down once again by Sadalbari who seems to have its measure. However the each way bet gave us a small profit.

Caulfield r8 n1 Flagstaff, 1 unit to win
Exceptional win in quick time last start - albeit in much weaker company. Can see it siitting in the first 4 and is one of those horses that maintains form. Interestingly is the only horse Brian Cox has brought to the city from Wodonga today.
Unplaced @ $15
Was a bit lost early and couldn't take up a forward position. Battled on fairly.

Randwick r3 n6 Senhor Da Gama, 2 units to win
Rated terrifically in its city win last start and looks to be a smart horse on the improve. Randwick track and solid speed should suit and can see it running all over the top of them.
Unplaced @ $2.50
Silly bet in hindsight. The rain came down in Sydney however I still decided to go ahead as its from a noted wet track sire. Should have taken note of its previous start in the wet where it was beaten in provincial class. Am happy to stick with this one when it strikes a good track.

Doomben r1 n5 Forbes, 1.5 units to win
Looks to be an up and comer and most of its opponents today are getting on or at the end of their campaign. Smart win last start in good time and whilst it is a bit if a get back horse am happy to risk that today. Also a fan of the Zabeel's who start showing ability as they usually hold it.
1st @ $2.70
Ran on hard to run out a good winner but have the feeling its had enough now.

Monday, December 21, 2009

NBA 21st December

Detroit +7.5 @ $1.91 (sportsbet) for 2 units.
Lost

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Racing 20th December

Hawkesbury r6 n8 Memzair - 1 unit to win
Not normally a 'type' of horse I want to be backing wiith its poor strike rate and get back style however its sectionals at its last 2 starts have been exceptional. Could be a bit of speed on here and if its within striking distance on the corner could overpower them.
3rd @ $6.50
Got, back and ran on. Story of its life I guess.....

NBA 20th December

Philadephia -3.0 @ $1.917 (IAS)
Lost
Bucks -6.0 @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
Lost
Spurs -12.0 @ $1.952 (Pinnacle)
Lost
Suns -10.5 @ $2.00 (Pinnacle)
Won

All for 2 units

Saturday, December 19, 2009

19th December

Won't be posting anything today as have other committments.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

NBA 17th December

Well, we're back on the NBA train again after a short hiatus. Been doing a little experimenting which seems to be working so lets see how we'll go. Of coourse, I am obviously expecting them all to lose now as soon as I publish them.....

Bucks +5.0 @ $1.943 (Pinnacle)
Won
Warriors +5.5 @ $1.965 (Pinnacle)
Lost
Hornets -4.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet)
Won
All for 2 units each

Hooray - we win on the NBA at last....

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Racing 16th December

Wyong r4 n4 Hillstreet - 1.5 units to win
Prepared to forgive last run as it was coming off a slight freshen up and had an apprentice on board which I don't think particularly suits. Should be sitting either outside the leader or leading and has run some good sectionals in the past. If the pace is not furious early could outkick them in the straight. Has Gridesdale on its back this time who is a very competant jockey on the provincial circuit.
Unplaced @ $5.00
Didn't see or hear the race as was in a meeting. Hopefully will get to watch the replay tonight.

Eagle Farm r7 n10 Smugglers Inn - 1.5 units to win
Bold front runner who simply destroyed his rivals last start in exceptionally good time for the cushion track. Up in class here but could be a horse on the improve.
3rd @ $2.70
Heavily backed from $4.50 into $2.70. Don't know if Cassidy quite rode him right. Think horse is a bit one paced and therefore he needs to be able to bowl along in the lead and break the others hearts. Cassidy held him together in front and then tried to outpace them in the straight.
My other theory is that he is a pure Cushion track horse.

Either way he needs to be black booked as that time he ran the previous start was an excellent indicator of a horse with plenty of ability.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Racing 13th December

Moonee Valley r5 n11 Pentoscar - 1.5 units to win.
Lightly raced improving type from good stable. Think there will be a bit of pace on here (strange for a 2500m MV race, I know) and should get a nice run towards the rear. Distance should not be an issue and the $5 early markets appeals.
Unplaced @ $5.00
Ran on hard to finish 4th but was never a realistic hope of winning.

Moonee Valley r7 n1 Belscenica - 2 units to win
Could not have been more impressive last time in Saturday class at this track and meets basically the same or inferior types here. Should be 3rd or 4th in the run and gets in well at the weights after the claim for Maskiell who rides above what he gets off in my opinion.
Unplaced @ $3.50
Big drifter on track. Didn't get the best of runs and I felt that young Maskiell panicked a bit when a few took off around him.

Getting back to the 15% mark again which is a realistic expectation. If I continue to keep that in mind it is far easier to bet in a measured way and not get too upset if a few losses come your way.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Racing 12th December

Morphetville r3 n1 Atlantic Air - 2 units to win
Racing in career best form and meets a very mediocre lot here. Will bowl along in front and in this small field its hard to see anything pestering it. Only concern is its ability to carry weight but looks a strong type and think that it will present no problems.
1st @ $2.10
Got the top fluc with it starting $1.80. Went straight to the front and the race was all over with 1600 to go.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Racing 11th December

Late notice I know.

Moonee Valley r6 n11 Trajet - 1.5 units to win.
Consistent on pacer in form up against some average opposition here. Its no world beater but gets its chance tonight. Definite valuen at the $4 early markets.
Unplaced @ $5.00
Got taken on early but was well beaten.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Racing 10th December

Ipswich r6 n3, Eleven Oysters - 1 unit to win
Has ability but does appear to do plenty of wrong in its races. Better run last start and in good stable that you would hope may have polished up its rough edges. On pacer and I can't see them going super quick early. If it can settle and its head is right has to be hard to beat.
Scratched

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Racing 9th December

Rosehill r4 n6 Onthelookout, 1 unit to win
Not much luck last time in better class than it meets today. Not overly confident as I'm not a fan of the B Joseph stable and the horse is a bit of a get back type and 2nd up. However if it reproduces figures like it did last time it must be hard to beat.
3rd - Backed from $4 to $2.50
Loomed up on the corner but simply gave up in the last 150m. As I said earlier not a fan of the Joseph stable and really should not have backed it at all.

Rosehill r5 n3 Interna, 2 units to win
Heavily backed last start where it didn't enjoy anny favours in running to still run third. Gets 2 kilos off here for Avdulla and this isn't very hard. Gets chance to breakthrough here.
Unplaced @ $3.50
Very disappointing and appeared to have every chance.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Racing 6th December

Cranbourne r5 n3 Viallico - 1.5 units to win
Has been racing against better quality horses than it meets today. Small field will suit as it is an on pacer and has in form jockey L Nolen on board. Seems to be on the improve where as the rest of the field are just mediocre battlers.
1st @ $3.30
Actually started $3.60 in the end so missed the value there. Settled outside the leader, hit the front on the corner and raced away for an easy victory

Wyong r3 n8 Our Boy Lucas - 2 units to win
Impressive win in quick time last start where it broke its maiden. In the highly regarded Joe Pride stable and seems well suited here getting in on the minimum.
1st @ $6.50
Got the best price as I think it SP'd $5.50. Was 4 and 5 wide around the corner and looked all over the winner at the 200. However the favourite who got the easy run made a dive at it but we just held on by the barest of margins. Nice to get a photo go your way but it would have been a travesty if it got beaten in all honesty.

Well up to +18% POT now which is way past my humble expectations when I commenced this. Being a pessimist at heart I keep expecting a massive downturn but it seems to just keep getting better. I know I am doing everything right when it comes to assessing the form so maybe it is the hard work paying dividends.....Just got to keep the head down and not get over confident.

Picking the right race to bet on is key in my opinion and just as important is not betting just for the sake of it. Hence why I don't give out selections every day. Its not that I haven't been bothered that day, its just that nothing has stood out.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Racing December 5th

A fairly uninspiring afternoon and hence only one selection today.

Rosehill r3 n4 Modonna, 2 units to win
Improving speedy type in good stable who should get the gun run here. Rest of the field are run on types and Rosehill typically suits the on pacers. Would not be wanting to take anything less than $3.00 though.
2nd @ $4.00
Led them up and got all the favours but just beaten by a better one on the day.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Australian Open Golf

Steve Marino 1 unit @ $30
Matt Goggin 1 unit @ $28

Whilst I generally don't like betting on golf at this time of year I like these two guys at the value. We need to be looking at guys in the top 10 of betting as the form guide generally holds up for this tournalment and on an extremely tough course its hard to imagine a bolter maintaining consistent form over 4 rounds.

Marino - US PGA form stands up very well in Australia as we saw with Dufner 3 weeks ago in the Masters. Marino has a bit going for him besides just being American though. He was in contention in the British Open earlier this year so obviously the links type of course holds no fears for him. Marino is a very consistent golfer and although he doesn't win out of turn I can see him being in this for a long way.

Goggin - Like Marino was not beaten by much in the British Open this year. Is knocking on the door to win a decent tournalment. Course suits ball strikers and Goggin is probably the best ball striker in the field. The $28 is terrific value in this field as he should probably be 2nd favourite in my opinion.

Both beaten a long way with Marino not even making the cut.

NBA 31st December

Dallas -11.5 @ $1.91 v Philadelphia - 2 Units (Sportsbet)
Won by 2 but thats no good to me.

I'm taking a spell from the NBA for the moment until I get some form back. Getting belted consistently and its hurting the POT %.