Thursday, December 16, 2010

Cricket - 3rd Test Australia vs England

4 units on the draw @ $3.90 (betfair)
Frankly, both attacks look pretty poor and I have strong question marks whether either side is capable of taking 20 wickets in a match. Australia's in particular looks very pedestrian. Perth is not the fast bowlers paradise it used to be and there are usually plenty of runs to be scored here. Will probably trade this during the match.

4 units on Chris Tremlett to score more than 75.5 points @ $1.90 (sportsbet)
Points : 1 pt per run, 10 pts per catch, 20 pts per wicket

May well get a bit of bowling here with Anderson just back from the UK and Finn slightly leg weary. Is more than handy with the bat and this seems like a good value bet to me

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Tiger's putting

I see the mainstream golf press has just caught on to what I alluded to months ago.

http://www.pgatour.com/2010/r/12/08/awtrey-woods-putter/index.html

http://mypuntingblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/problem-with-tiger.html

I actually thought he was just starting to get his flat stick sorted again prior to his Australian trip but it seems as if those greens at Victoria GC have really sapped his confidence again. And he wouldn't be the first one !!!!!

Golf - Australian PGA

Nick O'Hern to finish top 25, 5 units @ $2.00 (Sportingbet)
Hardly my favourite golfer in the world but excels at this course and in this tournalment. Another weak field and with 21 consecutive top 25s in Australia, I'm happy to cop the evens that he will make it 22.

Top 25 never in doubt.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Golf - Australian Open

Adam Scott - 2 units to win @ $7 (Sportingbet)
Bobby Gates, 1 unit to win @ $126 (Flem Sports Bet)
Bobby Gates, 1.5 units to finish top 25 @ $4 (Sportsbet)

Its been raining cats and dogs in Sydney the last few days which means the long hitters really come into play this week.
The Lakes has never really placed a premium on accuracy anyway and this will be even more evident with the wet conditions.

We're looking for players that hit the ball high and long and both Scott and Gates fit the bill. Both play on the US Tour where pitch and putt courses abound and I'm tipping this week will be very similar.

Both have some putting queries and even though the course has been redeveloped, the greens aren't exactly going to be Royal Melbourne or Augusta in quality in terms of slopes and quickness so I don't think they are going to be too much of a test.

Scott is coming off some white hot form of recent weeks and in all fairness this field is again fairly thin in terms of quality. Gates has some good form down under and I think he is a very promising player who could do some nice things on the main US tour next year.

I also give Baddeley and Senden some chance but both appear to be under the odds for mine.

Small profit made with Gates finishing top 25

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Ascot 27/11/10

R1 N2 Flying Heritage, 1 unit to win
R3 n8 Club Liquid, 1 unit to win
R8 n1 Playing God, 1 unit to win

Best roughie : r5 n14 Volcanic Causeway

Quad : 5,6,8,9 / 1,6,7,10 / 1 / 3,11,12
63% for 1 unit

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Ascp - Railway Stakes Day

Oh well - better late than never.

R1 N6 Ranger, 2 units to win
R2 n10 Pin Rouge, 0.5 units e/w - dangers 8 & 14
R3 N12 Kenmarette, 0.5 nits e/w - dangers 6 & 5
R4 N5 Key Box Quin 5,6 & 4 with 1 & 16, 0.2 units - very difficult race
r5 n4 Kens Double 1 unit to win
R6 n6 Double Barrel 0.5 units to win & quin with 1 & 3 for 0.25 units
r7 N9 Colour Correct 0.5 unit to win, 0.3 quin with 14, 8 & 11
r8 n7 Absolute Pleasure, 0.75 units e/w - danger 5
r9 n4 Follow The Road, 0.5 units e/w, dangers 9 & 13

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Golf - Australian Masters

Tiger Woods, 5 units to win @ $4.25 (Flem SportsBet)
Clearly the man to beat this week with his game seemingly back on track. Especially the putting side of it and that will be crucial this week. Its actually quite a rubbish field when you look at it with all the other world class players either badly out of form (Ogilvie, Villegas) or with putting problems (Garcia, Allenby, Appleby) that will only be accentuated this week. Woods used to regularly start $3.50 or less in hot fields on the US Tour yet is $4.25 against a very average group of players if we were being honest.

Also with rain predicted for a lot of the week, it could soften the course making it a pitch and putt event. Conditions which Woods excels on.

Wade Ormsby, 1.5 units top 25 @ $3.50 (Sportingbet)
Plays well on the sandbelt courses and is one of the better local putters. Happy to be on him to finish top 25.

Scott Laycock, 1.5 units top 25 @ $4.50 (Sportingbet)
Ditto the above.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Melb Cup Day 02/11/10

Its a special day so why not bets for every race (except race 1)

Race 2 : No 9 Tio Rosso, 0.5 units e/w. Next best in order. 4,3,10,13
Race 3 : 14,13,7 box quin for 0.3 units (total 1 unit)
Race 4 : No 1 Montana Flyer clear top rater. 2 units to win at good odds.
Race 5 : No 3 Sleepers, 0.5 units e/w. Next best in order 12,13,2
Race 6 : 2,9,3, box quin for 0.3 units (total 1 unit)
Race 7 : 5 units to win the champ - So You Think

Races 8,9 & 10 to come in a couple of hours.

Okay - good start with the R3 quinella paying $36....

Race 8 : No 10 Hidden Wonder, 0.5 units e/w. Dangers 6,9,11,2,4
Race 9 : No 7 Ahdashim, 1 unit to win. Dangers 6,11,12
Race 10: No 4 Amaethon, 1 unit to win. Dangers 5,18,16,13

Good luck to all..

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Races 16th October

Wet tracks all over Australia today and even though its Caulfield Cup day, I can't possibly have a bet there (well, not a serious one anyway - lol). Track is likely to be a quagmire and you may as well throw the form out the window.

Sydney r5 n1 Buffering 1.5 units to win
Randwick seems to have escaped the big wet so thats where my main interest will be today. Buffering should cross and lead here in this small field and its form against similar company is first class. Stable is in form and looks the one to berat here and a good anchor if taking quadrellas.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Golf - McGladery Classic

Course experience not really necessary here as it is a new course. Players who do well on links types courses could be advantaged.

Jeff Quinney - 1.25 units to win @ $190 (betfair) & 2 units, top 25 @ $5.00 (sportsbet)
Perpetual non winner who has never won on tour. However has a few things in his favour this week. Is a a good putter and quite accurate once he gets to the 150 yard mark and with only 2 par 5s this week, playing the par 4s well will be advantageous. His links form stands up okay as well. If we look at Pebble Beach he has finished T35, T22 and T24 his last three times there. Nothing earth shattering I know but it is excellent compared to his general form.
Is currently 126th on the money list (right on the bubble) and needs a good performance this week. Has made 7 cuts from his past 8 starts and is probably in the best form (for him) of his PGA Tour career.
Great value in the top 25 market in my opinion.

Brett Wetterich - 0.75 units to win @ $90 (betfair) & 2 units, top 25 @ $3.00 (sportsbet).
Three top 25s from his past four tournalments means he comes into this in pretty good form. Has good all round figures for this type of course. Currently on a medical extension and needs to earn approx 300K for the rest of the season to get himself a ticket for next year. Does have a lot of ability when right.

A costly 8 on a par 5 in the final round cost Quinney a chance to win the tournalment overal - finished equal 9th but it could have been so much better.

But then again thats what non-winners do.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Golf - Viking Classic

They will go low here and whilst I'm not really a fan of punting on tournalments such as these, there is a bit of course history and a bit of value to be had.

Richard S Johnson - 1.25 units to win @ $85 (betfair) and 2 units top 25 @ $2.75 (sportsbet)
Look up the definition of non winner in the dictionary and Johnson's face will come staring back at you. One win in over 100 starts on the tour in the last 5 years and not too many decent results in between. However seems to be striking a bit of form lately. Three top 25s in his last 3 starts and 6 made cuts in a row. Course will suit his accurate hitting and moitivation won't be a problem either as he lies 139th on the money list, therefore needing a good finish here to get his card next year.

Joe Durant - 0.75 units to win @ $140 (betfair) and 2 units top 25 @ $4.00 (sportsbet)
His profile is basic exactly the same as Johnson's. A last start T12th may be an indicator that things are slightly turning for him and he does seem to play better on courses where low numbers are required.

Ryder Cup
May have a few match bets in the singles but as far as head to head is concerned, Europe is that far ahead of the USA its not funny. It could even be all over by that stage anyway.

Joe Durant squeezes in for top 25 despite triple bogeying the last !!!!!

Sunday, September 26, 2010

NFL Week 3

Sorry, been out of action the last few weeks with the golf dying down and nothing really grabbing my interest racing wise. Although we potentially have a great rivalty coming along with So You Think and More Joyous both looking like two of the best horses we've seen in the past decade.

Atlanta Falcons 2 units @ +3.0 (Centrebet) vs New Orleans
Think the Falcons are an under-rated side and they get their chance to show their worth against the reigning champs. The Saints have struggled so far this year and will be fully trested this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2 units to win @ $2.22 (FlemSportsBet) vs Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles look over-priced here on the back of the last two efforts from Michael Vick. Returns to an outdoor stadium here and his fitness will be fully tested. The Jags will be keen to have their first home town win of the season and should be fired up for this.

Chop out with Atlanta getting the chocolates

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Races 11th September

Like a few today. In a rush so no time for any real comments.

Moonee Valley
r1 no 2 Servant, 2 units to win
r3 no 1 Dutchys Lass, 2 units to win
r7 no 8, Typhoon Tracey, 2 units to win

Terrible track bias proves costly as leaders very disadvantaged.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Golf - BMW Championship

Ian Poulter - 1 unit to win @ $110 (betfair) & 1 unit to finish top 10 @ $9.20 (betfair)

Form doesn't look that great but a closer look at his scorecards the past 2 tournaments shows the events have basically been ruined by a couple of bad holes in each. Last round was bogey free and that indicates he may have just sorted out all the kinks in his armour. Finished 20th here last year so course won't be a problem and he also seems to play better later in the year for some reason.

On his day is one of the better putters in the world, is highly competitive when he gets himself into a winning position and importantly needs a good finish here to progress to the next stage of the Fedex playoffs so motivation will not be a factor.

Is a great price for a very good player.

Update : Laid Poulter to win 1 unit @ $13.50

Great start by Poults after double bogeying the first. Off early today so lets hope he can keep it going.

Have also managed to lay Poulter top 10 for 1 unit @ $2.20 so have got all my bets going for nothing this week.

Update 2 : Put a lay in the system @ $3.00 to win 16 units. Hopefully we get matched !!!!!
Have also laid him in the top 10 market to win 3 units @ $1.47

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Races 28th August

Caulfield r8 n11, Royal Discretion 1 unit e/w

Not much luck last week behind the inform Stanzout when it blew the start. Good wet tracker with top jockey Luke Nolen on board. Live chance at big odds (currently $21)in a very open race.

Fast finishing 4th

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Golf - Barclays Championship

Course is expected to suit the long hitters and may play soft the opening two days suiting them even more. Greens are quite tricky so need to be in decent putting touch.

JB Holmes - 1 unit to win @ $91 (Sportsbet)
Near enough to the longest hitter on Tour and is in very good form of late. A 3rd round 77 in the PGA cost him basically a top 5 finish in that event and of his four starts prior, finished in the top 20 three times (including a T14th in the British Open). Has missed just one cut for the year so there are absoloutly no doubts on his consistency.

Aaron Baddeley - 0.6 units to win @ $280 (Betfair)
More on course suitability than form here. Hits the ball long and high and is a very good putter. Badds's main problem has been his accuracy off the tee and he may not get punished as much as he usually does on this course. Showing signs of getting back to his best on his two most recent events (although they were pitch and putt tourny's !!!) shooting 9 and 11 under respectively. Could be a bolter.

Steve Elkington - 0.6 units to win @ $190 (Betfair)
In excellent form and has been knocking the pins out. Putting was once somewhat of a weakness but he seems to have turned it into a bit of a strength lately. Not a long hitter by any means but not overly short either. His superior iron play may make up for shortcomings in that area. I'm happy to stick with him at the big price again.

Paul Casey - 2 units leading Euro @ $6.00 avge price (Betfair)
Clear top Euro rater on my figures and was almost tempted to back him to win but the price isn't great. Long hitter and excellent putter playing very well at the moment. If I had a query its that his GIR stats aren't maybe as good as they should be. However against that, there are doubts on a lot of the other Euros (putting might sort Rory out here for instance) that I am happy to back Casey.

No joy here.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

No Golf Bets This Week

Well we're back to a pitch and putt course this week for the Wyndham Championship so am not getting involved as I have no interest in these types of events any more.

The winner will shoot 20 under (par 70 course mind you) and be the best putter for the week.

May as well stick them on a mini golf circuit !!!!!

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Races 14th August

Caulfield r6 n6, Predatory Pricer - 1.5 units e/w
One of the best horses in Oz resuming here. Last time first up here produced a withering burst to get up on the line. Strong wind may hinder front runners today and am hoping the Pricer can repeat his effort of last time. Clear top rater here as most of other favoured runners are on pace types.
2nd @ $2.20 place. Desperately unlucky I thought and seeems to be set for a big Spring.

Caulfield r7 n7, Ocean Challenger - 1.5 units e/w
5 starts here for 3 wins and a second. Also excellent 2nd up record of 2 wins from 3 starts. Gets the sit in the middle of the field. Is a mare on the rise and there are plenty of queries on the other runners. Happy to cop the $10 each way here.

Unplaced at $11. Never a hope.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Golf - US PGA

Plumping for some players at long odds here. Whistling Straits is a good test of golf but with four par 5's we are looking at players who hit the ball relatively long and play the par 5's well.

Vaughan Taylor : 0.6 units to win @ $400(betfair) and 1 unit top 25 @ $7.00(sportsbet)
Been very consistent the past month with three top 15 finishes his past 5 starts. In the other two starts he made the cut but threw a 74 in both times which ruined his chances. Although not a long hitter ranks 12th in par 5 performance this year, is very accurate and a decent putter. Is a non winner but am happy to take 400s about a player in good form.

Steve Elkington : 0.6 units to win @ 450(betfair), 1 unit top 25 @ $8.00(sportsbet) and 0.6 units top Aussie @ $13 (luxbet)
Another who has been very consistent in the lesser tournalments without looking like winning. Veteran who should relish his first opportunity to play in a major this year. Ranks 22nd for par 5 performance and 16th in ball striking. Putting has always been the question mark but that seems to have improved this season.

Brendan de Jonge : 0.6 units t win @ 190(betfair) and 1 unit top 25 @ $6.00(sportsbet)
Six top 20s in his last 8 appearances on tour says it all about this blokes consistency. Knocking on the door for a win and why can't it be a major ? Very accurate and putts well. 190 is miles over the odds for a player in the form that he is.

Matt Jones : 0.6 units top Aussie @ $13 (luxbet)
Long hitter with a good record on the par 5's. Over the odds for top Aussie.

Update : Put a few lays in the system hoping to get matched in running.
Elkington to lose 30 units @ $17 (win 2 units)
Elkington to lose 30 units @ $7 (win 5 units)
Elkington to lose 30 units @ $3 (win 1o units)

More wishful thinking but you never know. If he finished top 25 that will be enough for me and if he gets top Aussie that will be a bonus.

Well the Elk gave me a good run for my money and if he'd holed that eagle putt on 16 then who knows what might have happened. Managed to get set at $7 and $17 on the lay side and also collected on the T25 and Top Aussie.

The majors have been worth their weight in gold to me this year.

Would be great to get an outright winner before the PGA season finishes but am in front on the golf so can't complain too much.

Monday, August 9, 2010

The problem with Tiger

As we've seen from this weeks performance Tiger's game has gone right off and whilst its correct to say that his tee to green isn't what he is capable of, the real problem lies with his putting. Specifically the short putts.

Tiger used to be near unstoppable from inside 5 feet but that has all changed. The statistics tell the story.

Inside 5 feet
2010 - ranked 59th
2009 - 4th
2008 - 1st

Between 5 feet and 10 feet
2010 - 150th
2009 - 9th
2008 - 72nd

Putts per round
2010 - 129th
2009 - 22nd
2008 - 20th
2007 - 48th
2006 - 137th
2005 - 33rd
2004 - 20th
2003 - 32nd

Unfortunately I can't get the short putt stats prior to 2008 but I'm pretty confident that Tiger would have been ranked up high. He has always had a high overall putting ranking except for the blip in 2006.

This loss of confidence with the short putts must be affecting the rest of his game in my opinion. There is now enormous pressure on him on every shot he makes as he knows he cannot putt himself out of trouble any more.

Personally, I don't think his overall game has deteriorated that much. Its always been his putting that has been the difference. Simply, he made the putts when it mattered.

Now putting is more or less a confidence thing. I think its fair to say that the traumas of the last 9 months have really got to him mentally. He changed putters at the British Open and that was the first sign to me that he is starting to get very concerned.

Can he come back though ?

Well, he needs to get his shit sorted off the course and get that swagger back. I think all it will take is a few good putting rounds where he holes everything under 6 feet and all will be well with the world though. But we have seen great players never come back from putting woes before.

If you're a golf punter then watch Tigers putting carefully the next few tournalments. If you detect that he is getting his mojoe back then you might be able to get some value. However, until then its going to be very difficult for him unless the course being played does not have much putting emphasis.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Golf - WGC Bridgestone Invitational

Ross Fisher, 1 unit to win @ $48 (betfair)
Has claims to being the hottest player on the planet at the moment with a series of excellent performances in the past month. Hits the ball long, gets great GIR statistics and putting is above average which are all the key statistics you want to excel in this week. Only slight pot are his two disappointing efforts here the past two years but he was nowhere near the golfer he is now. Excellent value.

JB Holmes, 0.75 units to win @$110 (betfair) *unmatched
This course suits the long hitters as the fairways are soft and generally easy to hit so big bombers like JB can go for it without fear. Three top 20 finishes in his last 4 events and is knocking on the door for a big victory. His putting is under-rated too.

Graeme McDowell, 0.75 units to win @ $85 (betfair)
This is just a ridiculous price. Since his US Open victory, Graeme has performed most credibly at a time when he probably wasn't concentrating fully on his golf. he is now ranked 11th in the world yet we can get $85 about him whilst someone like Mickelsen who is clearly not at his best is served up at $15. McDowell is a brilliant putter and id he hits his share of greens in reg will be high up on the leaderboard towards the end.

Paul Casey, 0.5 units to win @ $42 (betfair)
One of my favourite players and seems to be over this injury curse that has got him the last 12 months or so. Finished 8th here two years ago and if the course is wet it will definitely suit his style.

With the smallish field and there being no cut I'm going to have a dabble in the H2H markets this week.

Matt Kucher to beat Tim Clark, 2 units @ $1.90 (centrebet)
This course simply does not suit Clark and Kucher is in good form.

Dustin Johnson to beat Hunter Mahan, 1 unit @ $1.93 (sportsbet)
I expect the big hitting Johnson to go well here.

Rickie Fowler to beat Adam Scott, 1 unit @ $1.93 (sportsbet)
The emphasis on putting could be Adams downfall here and I sense his game has been a little off since his won a few months ago.

Well Kuchar demolished Clark but all other bets fell by the wayside. Smallish loss on the event.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

The boring state of the US PGA Tour

Regular readers of this blog would know that golf (particular the US PGA Tour) is one of my favourite sports to bet on. The reasons are threefold :

1. Large prices on offer giving an opportunity to trade in running and for a major collect.
2. I think I've got an edge with the form due to the data I have available.
3. I'm an avid golfer myself so the sport interests me.

However, whilst I like betting on it, I often find that trying to watch it at times borders on sleep inducing.

For whatever reason, the golf authorities in the US are under the impression that audiences like seeing scores of 20 under winning tournalments. Today we had two players shooting 60 and 61 respectively and with all due respect to D A Points and JB Holmes neither is Woods, Mickelsen or Casey.

Now I completely understand if its an old course that is getting shot up. Some of these courses were designed 100 years ago and simply cannot cope with the modern golf technology. But relatively new courses added to the tour have no such excuses.

Today for example I watched the back 9 with Jeff Overton. I understand he is one of the longest hitters on tour but honestly every hole was so repetitive. Driver, wedge, putt from 15 feet for birdie. Where is the challenge in that ? Honestly I think the modern professional only needs to carry driver, 3 wood, 3 iron, 9 iron, 4 wedges and a putter. When would they ever hit a 4 or 5 iron except perhaps to reach a par 5 in two ????

And for some reason US course designers think if you stick a lake or two on a hole that toughens it up. Have a look at the last hole this week at Greenbrier. Its a 160 yard par 3 over a small lake. But this is no issue for the professionals. Its just a simple 9 iron/wedge to the hole and again the regulation 15 footer for birdie.

So whats the solution ?

1. Set up the course so that 66, 67 is an exceptional score - not a good to average score. This can be done in a couple of ways. Narrow the fairways by a few yards or so each side so if the big bombers are inaccurate they get punished accordingly.

2. Make the rough, rough. I mean some of the light rough is like some fairways I've seen. The US Open is tricked up so that even the light rough is impossible. I'm not saying that the regular tour should be like that but at least if you go 10 yards or more off the fairway then you should be getting into US Open rough territory.

3. The greens need to be hard and bouncy. At the moment, its just target golf where you take a club and hit it knowing the ball will basically stop where it lands. Make the players think a bit.

4. The greenside bunkers are far too easy. Water them in the mornings so that the sand is hard making it more difficult to control the shot.

5. Drop zones. If you hit it into a grandstand, then the drop zone should be behind a tree or in some other difficult position. At the moment, you can miss any 18th green by 40 yards, fly it into the grandstand and more often than not the drop zone is 15 feet off the green. Thats rubbish.

The Open Championship and the US Open are by far the most interesting tournalments for me during the year. Thats because a good score is earned not just expected. I like seeing players in trouble and extricating themselves out of it. I also like seeing players rack up the occasional double or triple bogey. It also means that if a player is 2 or 3 shots in front, that it never really ends until the ball is on the final green. On the general US Tour players WIN tournalments. In the US Open and British Open, players can WIN tournalments but they can also LOSE tournalments.

Now thats interesting.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Golf - Greenbrier Classic

Although this is being played on a new course there is enough information out there to suggest that this is an old style course where a premium is placed on putting. Also think being a good wedge player will be key as many of the par 4's are around the 400 yard mark.

Brendan de Jonge - 1 unit to win @ $44 (betfair)
One of the hottest players on tour with 4 top 20s from his last 6 outings and not a cut missed. Excellent putter and wedge player. Leads the tour in total birdies and I've got a feeling they will go low here depite it being a par 70 with little rain and a soft course predicted. Doesn't win out of turn but is knocking on the door.

Carl Pettersen - 0.75 units to win @$42 (betfair)
Bit unusual to see a back to back winner but Pettersen was quite impressive last week and he has claims to be currently the best putter on tour. By all reports this course is similar to last week so no reason why he can't score well again.

Ben Curtis - 0.5 units to win @ $75 (betfair)
Before his MC at the British Open, his form was quite good with a T14 at the US Open just on 3 starts ago. Even the British Open performance wasn't too bad as he had a couple of horror holes and still ended up just missing the cut. Admittedly is not the best putter in the world but this field is light on for experienced, in form players and he could be the one that shows up this week.. And yes I realise he is only 33 but he seems to have been around for ever....

Brendan de Jonge - 2 units to finish top 25 @ $2.50 (Centrebet)
As above.

One more
John Daly - 0.5 units to win @ $200 (betfair)
Just got a tweet from him that he had been granted an exemption to play. Earlier tweets had him raving about the course and he seems to be in a good frame of mind. No doubt the ability is still there as he performed reasonably in the British Open. Needs to get a decent paycheck and is hungry.

Small collect on De Jonge top 25 resulted in a minor profir for the tournalment.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Races 24th July

Moonee Valley r3 n1 Rue Maple, 1.5 units to win
Gets the gun run and races well here. Well off at the weights and looks hard to beat.
1st @ $1.95 (Luxbet BOB). Got to the front and did enough to win.

Moonee Valley r7 n6 Crabs, 1.5 units to win
Weighted to win this race. Didn't have the best of luck last time and is another who goes well this track.
Unplaced @ $4.50. Terrible run and something had to have been amiss.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

British Open Wrap Up

Kaymer looked the goods and his T7 position is actually worse than it looked as he managed to bogey each of the last 3 holes of the tournalment. Ross Fisher showed some form and except for a couple of horror holes could and should have finished much closer. Was happy with the way I traded in the end. As stated before, hate trading when the margin is less than 10% as a rule but this was special circumstances with the leader being so far in front.

Adam Scott managed to tie for top Aussie whilst both my top 25 selections were never a hope and missed the cut. Always disappointing when a top 25 selection misses the cut and really should do better than that.

One thing I have learnt is that St Andrews is now a big hitters paradise.

Here is my top 20 in terms of distance according to my data pre tournalment and their respective finishing positions :

T14 : JB Holmes
MC : Bubba Watson
MC : Kurt Barnes
T14 : Dustin Johnson
T48 : John Daly
MC : Angel Cabrera
T11 : Alvaro Quiros
MC : Ewan Porter
T3 : Rory Mcilroy
MC : Martin Laird
T3 : Paul Casey
MC : Phillip Archer
T11 : Jeff Overton
T7 : Martin Kaymer
MC : Davis Love
T23 : Tiger Woods
2nd : Lee Westwood
MC : Gonzalo Fernando-Castano
MC : Shunsuke Sonada
1st : Louis Oosthuizen

Now whilst there is a few MC's in there, its worth noting that if you backed all the long drivers you would have filled 4 of the first 5 finishes - and really Kaymer should have been there too except for his blow ups in the last 3 holes.

Anyway, something to keep in mind for 5 years time.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

British Open dilemna

Well, Kaymer is currently 3rd but 8 shots back. To be honest I think its going to be hard for him especially as the player in 2nd place is Paul Casey who I respect immensely.

I could lay some money off now on Betfair at the $16.50. However on general principle I hate trading when the margin is less than 10% (in this case it will be only 4%).

Bit unsure what to do here. I've also got Adam Scott leading the top aussie at the moment but if he misses out and Kaymer gets beaten then the whole tournalment is a wipe out for me when in reality, the picks have been reasonably solid.

Any thoughts out there in interweb land ?

Have laid 1 unit Kaymer @ $17 (matched) and have laid 3 units (unmatched) @ $6.00.

Not entirely convinced this is the right way to go but at least if Scott finishes top Aussie I still walk away with a small profit.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

AFL July 17th

St Kilda 5units to win @ $1.74 (Flem Sports Bet) v Collingwood

Although I'm not a big fan of St Kilda and the way they play think they will be very hard to beat today. Saints get back Kosi and Goddard plus with Riewoldt having a game under his belt automatically look stronger. Collingwood have lost Travis Cloke to injury and he is vital to their forward line structure. Pies traditionally struggle to kick goals against the Saints and Cloke's absense won't help them one bit.
St Kilda have good recent record against Collingwood and think it will continue today. $1.74 is a good price in my opinion and worthy of a decent bet.

Never, ever looked likely. Its weird. My record on AFL on this blog is worse than pitiful but when I do have a bet without posting here they invariably win - for instance I did back the Swans on Sunday @ $2.50 but didn't put it up on the blog.

Anyway I've got to stick with what I post. Maybe readers might want to consider my AFL selections as a definite curse and get on the other side asap in future.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Golf - The Open Championship

Martin Kaymer - 2 units to win @ $48 (betfair)
Hitting form at the right time. Has a great temperament which will be needed on the first 2 days with rain predicted. Good record at St Andrews when he first started out and plays the links courses well. Too good a player not to be competitive in a major and this might be his best chance. Is a clear top rater on my rankings with good overall figures especially with driving distance and putting.

Ross Fisher - 0.5 units to win @ $55 (betfair)
Ranks solidly across all the key categories. Very competitive last year (final round leader) before blowing up early in the final round. Two top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts including an 8th placed finish last week at the Scottish Open, the same finishing position he coincidentally finished last year.

Adam Scott - 1 unit Top Aussie @ $5.1 (betfair)
Goes well at St Andrews and on links courses. As always putting is the key with Adam but with not many Aussies in form and with his ball striking I expect him to do well this time around.

Kurt Barnes - 0.5 units Top Aussie @ $55 (betfair)
Very speculative but is a huge hitter and that length could be advantageous on days 1 & 2. Can handle these greens as has been a good performer at Huntingdale and the Oz Open in the past.

Kurt Barnes - 0.75 units top 25 @ $23 (sportsbet)
As above

Loren Roberts - 1 unit top 25 @ $17 (centrebet)
Being a good putter is a huge advantage at St Andrews and the 'boss of the moss' is one of the best in the world. Coming off a 3rd, a win and a 5th on the seniors tour so is in form. Has won a senior Brittish Open so these types of courses don't bother him. Big odds for a top 25 finish in my opinion.


Thursday, July 8, 2010

Golf - John Deere Classic

They tend to go low here and with a lot of the good players in Europe tuning up for the Brittish Open, I would not be surprised to see a few shocks.

Win
KJ Choi - 0.5 units @ $21 (betfair).
Very accurate and one of the better players in the field. Pretty short but you would think he'd be thereabouts.

Kevin Sutherland - 0.5 units @ $85 (betfair)
Another straight hitter but also an excellent scrambler which is needed around this course. Form has been pretty good lately except for last weeks abberation which I'm prepared to forgive as don't think the course really suited him.

Joe Durant - 0.5 units @ $260 (betfair)
Another who failed last week. However seems to save his best for courses where low numbers are needed. Accurate hitter and whilst his par 5 stats for the year look ordinary (and last week make them look worse), the last 5 weeks or so prior have been quite good. Think you will need to tear the par 5's up here.

Steve Elkington - 0.5 units @ $140 (betfair)
Sticking with him from last week. Made 5 cuts fom the last 6 and if he can throw out the one bad round per tournalment that seems to plague him, may break through again soon. Rates highly for scrambling.

Top 25
Joe Durant - 1.5 units @ $5.50 (sportsbet)
As above

Graeme De Laet - 1.5 units @ $6.00 (sportsbet)
Had a bad run of it for about a month there but last 2 weeks have been better. Can shoot a low number and is one of the longest drivers on tour. If he can monster the par 5's then he will be right in contention.

Never a hope here with both the top 25 selections missing the cut and the tournalment basically dominated from start to finish by Steve Stricker.

Looking forward to the Brittish Open this week. Should be a wide open field with heavy rain forecast the first two days.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

AFL Rd 15

Port Adelaide +39.5 @ $1.91 v Fremantle (Centrebet) - 2 units

Port are skunks. I'm the first to admit that. However they have a decent record in the West and first up after the break may catch Fremantle napping. 39.5 points start is just too big for mine.

Port Adelaide really are shitful.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Golf - Open de France

Staying away from the US PGA this week as it is being played on a new course and could be unpredictable with a lot of competitors tuning up for the Brittish Open.

Peter Whiteford to win, 1 unit @ 350s (betfair)
Two top 20 s in his last two appearances in Europe. Has good figures for this as he is one of the better putters on tour and also rates high on the GIR scale. 350 is a massive price and outsiders do have a good record in this tournalment.

Ignacio Garrido to win, 0.5 units @ 190 (betfair)
Consistent accurate hitter. Bit of a non winner but hardly ever misses a cut and rates a show here.

Robert Rock to win, 0.5 units @ 130 (betfair)
In career best form. Three top 5 five finishes from his last 3 appearances. One of the Tours best putters. Although this field looks stronger, it could be deceptive as a lot of the world class players are actually not in the best of form.

Peter Whiteford to finish top 25, 1.5 units @ 6.00 (sporstbet)
As above

Also, bear in mind that hitting off early seems to be an advantage around here. Whiteford has a late afternoon tee time first round so take that as you will.

All three players made the cut which was something but all failed to finish in the money for me. Whiteford got off to a good start but blew up in the final round especially.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Golf - Travellers Championship

Back on track after last weeks heroics from Russel Henley. If only he could have finished outright leading amateur as well instead of tying but you can't have it all.

Corey Pavin to win @ 240 (betfair) - 0.5 units
Didn't play last week so should be fresh for this. Hitting it great in his appearances on the regular tour and his GIR rating is impressive. A low number is going to be needed to win here and as such a good short game is needed which Pavin has in spades. Terrific value here.

Corey Pavin to finish top 25 @ $4.50 (sportsbet) - 1.5 units
As above.

The top Australian market is very competitive this week and have found three players at reasonable odds.
Greg Chalmers - 1 unit @ $13 (sportsbet)
Close to the form Aussie on tour and has got his short game back.
James Nitties - 1 unit @ $26 (sportingbet)
Fresh for this and is slowly getting back to his best. $26 is a huge price considering some of the flaky opposition he is up against..
Steve Elkington - 1 unit @ $19 (sportsbet)
Can shoot low numbers when on song and form pretty good of late. Experience could be a factor around here.

*****Pavin Update******
Now in a playoff - have just laid him to win 16 units @ $3.30 (betfair)

Poor Corey just wasn't up to the other two on the first playoff hole. Why he chose a 3 wood off the tee especially when he is so accurate with the driver is a mystery. But, still can't complain after collecting on the bet back and the top 25.

The 3 Aussies were all thereabouts at the 1/2 way mark but slipped off the pace towards the end.

Great to see my ratings really paying dividends on the golf lately. I do a fair bit of research from week to week and it does get frustrating when it goes unrewarded. However its one sport that you need a lot of patience with as you can go weeks and months without a payout but then 1 or 2 collects can set you up for the year.

The POT % is again at a dangerous high water mark. I'm pretty sure that 30% is unsustainable so am bracing myself for a bad run in the not too distant future. Lets hope it stays away for a little while yet !!!!!



Thursday, June 17, 2010

Golf - US Open

Looks extremely tough so staying out of the win only market until the weekend.

However there is one interesting player that popped up high in my ratings. Russell Henley.
Yes, I had never heard of him either.
21yo amateur who won his qualifying by 5 shots. Big hitter and good putter by the looks of things. Is the 3rd ranked amateur in the US.
Currently $26 to finish top 25 at Sportsbet which is pretty good value as this event can throw up surprises.

Also am having something very small on Duval. He is out of form (again) but saves his best for Pebble Beach and the US Open.

Bets
R Henley - 1 unit @ $26.00 to finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
R Henley - 1.5 units @ $11.00 to be leading amateur (Sportsbet)
D Duval - 1 unit @ $8.00 to finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
D Duval - 0.25 unit to win @ $250 (betfair)

Great result with Henley finishing T14 and tied as leading amateur. Duval made the cut and he seems to fire on the very difficult courses. Watch for him in the upcoming majors.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Races 29th May

Doomben R4 n13, Ringa Ringa Rosie, 1 unit to win
Gets a good run, races well here and on the up.

Doomben r8 n8 Mr Unforgettable, 1.5 units to win
Last few clearly better than the rest of these and goes well this track and distance.

Both placed.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Golf - Crowne Plaza Invitational

Cursed last week. Jason Day would you believe was my 4th selection (at 180s) but decided to go skinny and left him out. Then backed him prior to the 4th round for a chop out however it should have been so much better.

In a rush so no time for explanations. Going very wide on the win only market.

By the way, I will update the P&L here after this weekend. At the moment I just don't want to look at it......

All wagers on Betfair.

Ben Crane, o.8 units @ 30
Matt Kuchar, 0.8 units @ 36
Jim Furyk 0.8 units @ 17
Bo Van Pelt, 0.6 units @ 50
Steve Marino, 0.6 units @ 55
Tim Clark, 0.5 units @ 23
Brian Gay, 0.5 units @ 42
Corey Pavin, 0.5 units @ 340
Fredrik Jacobsen, 0.2 units @ 85
Henrik Stenson, 0.2 units @ 140

5.5 units all together.

No collect

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Golf - Byron Nelson Champ

Fairly ordinary field played on a course that has undergone a lot of changes so keeping the selections to a minimum.

Ben Crane - 1 unit to win @ $26 (Flem Sports Bet)
Very consistent, straight hitter who will be suited to this thinking type of course.

Scott Verplank - 0.5 units to win @ $48 (betfair)
Generally plays well in Texas and his experience will be beneficial here. Plays well in the wind and coming off a last start T13 in the Players Championshp

Kris Blanks - 2 units @ $5, Top 25 (Sportsbet)
Playing well but just seems to throw a bad round in now and then. If he can get some consistency will break through for a win soon.

No collect

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Golf - Texas Open

Played at a new course this year so field is wide open. It looks to be a long course with plenty of sand and local players tend to play well in Texas. I'm going very wide this week.

Win
Bobby Gates, 1 unit @ $170 (betfair)
Profiles well. Big hitter from Texas who is dominating on Nationwide Tour. Played well on windy courses in Australia and NZ earlier this year.

Graeme Deleat, 0.5 unit @ $100 (betfair)
Big hitting Canadian in his first season on the Tour. Finished 3rd in his only appearance in Texas (Houston Open) earlier this year.

Jason Gore, 0.25 @ $370 (betfair)
Is 6th in GIR and hits it long but his putting is terrible. Over the odds if the putts drop.

Kris Blanks, 0.25 @ $180 (betfair)
Having a decent season and whilst not a long hitter is a good putter and very accurate. If it wasn't for a 3rd round 75 would have finished much higher than 45th in The Players last week.

Top 25
Bobby Gates, 2 units @ $5.50 (Sportsbet)
Jason Gore, 1 unit @ $8.00 (Sportsbet)
Kris Blanks, 0.75 units @ $5.50 (Sportsbet)
All as per the above

Jeff Gove, 0.5 units @ $9.00 (Sportsbet)
Form terrible but has good GIR stats. Like Gore, if a few putts drop might be over the odds.

Arjan Atwal, 0.5 units @ $7.00 (Centrebet)
Reasonably consistent across all the key categories for this course.

Mark Hensby, 0.5 units @ $8.00 (Sportsbet)
Maybe slowly getting back to his best and best performances this year came in Australian and NZ on courses apparantly similar to this one.

Arjan Atwal a small result

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Golf - The Players Championship

Henrik Stenson, 1 unit to win @ $70 (betfair)
Always plays well here and even though he looks to be in poor form its noteworthy that in his last three apppearances here he was in similar 'bad' form. $70 is big odds.

Luke Donald, 0.5 units to win @ $60 (betfair)
In pretty good form and his reasonably accurate hitting should stand him in good stead. Bit of a non winner but has to break through sooner or later.

Alex Cejka, 0.25 units to win @ $360 (betfair)
This course suits and finished 4th here last year. Only needs to start holing a few putts to be in contention.

Top 25
Alex Cejka, 1 unit @ $8 (sportsbet)
As above

Graham McDowell, 1 unit @ $5 (sportsbet)
Straight hitter who seems to play well on the difficult courses.

No collect

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Races 1st May

Caulfield r5 n3 Morgan Dollar, 2 units to win
Gets the gun run here and with the claim comes in reallly well. Has a class edge ona lot of these and looks hard to beat.
2nd @ $2.80. Sat outside the leader and just beaten. A stronger jockey would definitely have gotten it over the line as young Mallyon has about as much vigor as a 5yo girl....

Caulfield r7 n5 Cinecitta, 1 unit to win
Great ratings last start, in good stable with gun jockey on board. Drawn to get a good site here.
Unplaced @ $6.00
Simply never in the race.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Golf - Quail Hollow Championship

Nick Watney, 1 unit to win @ $35 (betfair)
Tournalment has been won by up and comers the last two years and Watney is playing well enough to challenge here. Had a great Masters tournalment and really could have gone a lot closer than what he did except for a bit of bad luck. Good all round game means he's suited here.

Adam Scott, 0.5 units to win @ $48 (betfair)
His game is going along well and if he could get his putting to anything half decent he would be back with the best players in the world again. I'm prepared to to take a punt that some putts might drop for him this week.

Fred Couples, 0.5 units to win @ $100 (betfair)
Like Scott, its putting that has been Couples downfall in recent years. Has good figures for this event and other than the last two years this event has been won by solid experienced professionals with major experience.

JP Hayes, 0.25 units to win @ $400 (betfair)
Big price for a guy who has made the top 25 in 5 of 7 tournalments this year. On fire with the flat stick, hits the ball reasonably straight and is experienced enough to cope with the pressure here. Could be a good trade.

Top 25
JP Hayes, 1.5 units @ $6.00 (Sportsbet)
As per above

Jarrod Lyle, 1 unit @ $6.00 (Sportsbet)
Exceptionally straight driver which will be advantageous on a course with penal rough. Grew up playing the tough Victorian sandbelt courses and has some nice touch around the greens too. Could surprise here.

No collects. JP Hayes was looking the goods for a minimum top 25 finish after the first 2 rounds being 1 shot off the lead but crumbled badly. Jarrad Lyle made the cut but never looked likely and though Watney was thereabouts was always too far back.

Adam Scott and Fred Couples go back inside after getting a day release for this tournalment.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Golf - Zurich Classic

KJ Choi, 2 units to win @ $14 (Luxbet)
Ticks all the boxes here. GIR master, great scrambler, solid putter. With Poulter and Stricker out, Choi is the clear best player in the field. Faded away last week after a great Masters effort but that was expected as Masters contenders just never seem to back up the week after. That he led after Rd 1 anyway is testament to his mental strength. A clear top rater here.

The following are all 1 unit to finish top 25

Graeme De Leat, $4 (Sportsbet)
Good scrambler in fairly good touch of late.

JJ Henry, $4 (Sportsbet)
Back in form last week and course suits once again. Has a great temperament which could be vital on this windy course.

Spencer Levin, $4.50 (Sportsbet)
Solid figures across all the key indicators for this course.

Tom Pernice Jr, $5.00 (Sportsbet)
Grew up in the wind at Kansas so conditions should suit. Playing well on the Champions Tour, very consistent and a decent putter.

Well, no joy here.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Races 17th April

Caulfield r2 n2 Broken, 3 units to win
Looks a class above these and if fit will win.

Unplaced @ $2.50. Simply did not come up fresh

Friday, April 16, 2010

AFL Rd 4

Essendon 2 units to win v WCE @ $2.50 (Sportingbet)
Quite frankly a ridiculous price the Bombers up against a side that hasn't won all year. The Eagles form line is terrible losing to both Port and Nth convincingly. Really struggling with no forwards and their midfield further weakened by the loss of Swift and Shuey who are basically the only ones that can hit a target these days. As noted pre season I had the Eagles as an over-rated side and Essendon as an under-rated side. Hurley back for the Dons is a huge inclusion and I think you'll see a real finals contender tonight. In fact I'd even be tempted to take the -15.5.....

Insipid performance from Essendon.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Golf - Verizon Heritage

Jim Furyk - 1 unit to win @ 16.5 (Betfair)
Great record here and course suits his accurate hitting and good short game. Forget his Masters result. The course was simply too long

Luke Donald - 0.5 units to win @ 34 (Betfair)
Excellent scrambler and his GIR statistics suit this course with its small greens. Has been playing well of late and is due to break through soon.

Jason Bohn - 0.5 units to win @ 60 (Betfair)
Two top 20's in his last 2 events and his good all round game will be advantageous here.

To finish top 25 - all 1 unit

Chris Di Marco @ 5.00 (Centrebet)
Gradually getting back to form albeit slowly but surely.
Graeme Deleat @ 4.00 (Centrebet)
Two top 25's from last 2 starts and leads the tours scrambling statistics.
JJ Henry @ 5.00 (Centrebet)
Hits plenty of greens in reg and although his putting is ordinary the small greens may not hurt him as much in that regard.
Glen Day @ 9.00 (Sportsbet)
Above average GIR and driving accuracy stats. Currently on the Nationwide Tour where his form has been just so so but gets a start here and will be hungry on a course that suits.

Great result with Furyk winning in a playoff and JJ Henry making the top 25. As a sidenote all 4 players picked for top 25 made the cut and Luke Donald finished 3rd overall.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Races 11th April

Flemington r4 n8 Johanski, 1.5 units to win.
I'm back for another bite of the cherry here. Beaten a nose last time when we were on and reading the stewards report afterwards makes you realise how unlucky she was. Is the cllass of the field, long Flemington straight suits and gets the benefir of a clam for Brent Evans. Happy to back again and hopefully get our money back.

3rd @ $4.00
Heavily backed and just could not get there.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Races 7th April 2010

Murray Bridge r1 n2 Fast Eddie, 1 unit to win
Freshened up for this and drops significantly in class as well as distance here. Poor strike rate otherwise would be more confident but with the claim gets in well against some moderate types here.

3rd @ $3.50
Poor strike rate continues

Monday, April 5, 2010

Races 5th April

Moonee Valley r2 n3 Paint It Black, 1.5 units to win
Not much luck last time, in gun stable and rates well for this.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

A question for blog readers....

Regular readers would know that I am fairly consistent with my Saturday selections. Today I had 3 selections which all won but for reasons which I couldn't avoid (children) I was unable to post them.

They were :Zantelagh : 1 unit win, Defintely Ready 5 units win & Tierquala (E/Farm) 2 units to win. All won (of course).

Do I count these in my P & L or are they not included. I know one of my readers can vouch that I verbally tipped them to him earlier in the day.

Any feedback would be great.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

AFL Rd 2

Kangaroos 3 units @ +36.5 ($1.91, Centrebet) v St Kilda
Nth have a good record against St Kilda in recent years with the wins at two each over the last two years. This is particularly relevant given that St Kilda have been strong in these years whilst Nth have been relatively weak. St Kilda are coming off a tough slog against Sydney at ANZ stadium. Teams traditionally usually struggle coming off a Sydney game as they play a physical brand of football.

Last year the Kangaroos were one of only two teams to beat St Kilda during the regular season and in the other game they were right in it before getting blown away late.

St Kilda also without Kochitzke who takes a lot of heat away from Riewoldt and Nth may now be able to double team him with impunity limiting their scoring.

Kangaroos are probably a good value bet to even win here but I'm inclined to take the start in what I think could be a low scoring, physical contest.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Races 28th March

Cranbourne r5 n3 El Spark, 3 units to win
Lightly raced filly coming off a last start 5th beaten 2 lenghts in city class last time. The 2nd horse Charteux subsequently won yesterday in feature race at Caulfield so form looks good from that race. In good stable with quality jockey on board. Should go well here in this weak race.
1st @ $3.20
Most impressive win bloting away for an easy win.

Turned a frustrating Saturday into a winning weekend.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Racing 26th March

Caulfield r4 n7 Zauberin, 1 unit to win
Rates very highly for this and is drawn to get the gun run. Smallish field suits and looks hard to beat.
2nd @ $5.50.
Beaten quite comfortable and never looked like winning.

Caulfield r6 n9 Chilled By Choice, 2 units to win
Lightly raced improving type who gets in very well at the weights here. $6.50 in early markets is enormous value and have to be on here.
Unplaced @ $6.00
Very ordinary effort.

Caulfield r8 n10, Johanski, 1 unit to win
Resumes here but was up against smart types such as Jolie Brise and Irish Lights when last in work. In very good stable and trained at the track. $15 in early markets.
2nd @ $16
Looked all over the winner until the very last stride when grabbed on the line. Hate getting beat like that on long shots.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Racing 25th March

Ballarat r5 n7 Zip Lady, 1.5 units to win.
Very moderate group of stayers here and she has at least some solid performances on board of late. Good effort at Geelong last time running on strong in a race where the leaders ran a strong last 600. Gets in on the minimum here and looks hard to beat.

1st @ $3.20
Settled back and ran over the top of them for an easy win.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

AFL 2010 Preview

Well another season is upon us so with that in mind a short preview for the season ahead.

One thing to remember with AFL is that in the last ten years one side from the top 4 the previous year has missed the 8 completely the next year on average once per season, ie it happens every year. On the other side there is usually a surprise packet who looked ordinary the previous year who shoot up and make at least the top 6 the next year. The trick is identifying these sides early and betting accordingly to get the value in the first half of the season.

Firstly to the teams who could have a shocker - Geelong, St Kilda, Bulldogs, Collingwood.

The Bulldogs look impressive and hungry pre seaon and the new addition of Hall only makes them better. They are in the right age group and of all the 4 sides they are the ones I'd be most confident with of maintaining their top 4 position.

Collingwood had a stack of injuries and still played good football last year. They have tremoundous depth and are very even - their 30th best player on the list can quite comfortably slot into their side without missing a beat. I'd find it hard to see them missing.

St Kilda had a heartbreaking loss in last years grand final and their key players are starting to age. Heavily reliant on Riewoldt and Hayes. They are a chance to slide if things don't go their way injury wise.

Now we come to Geelong. Everyone's premiership favourite but not with me. Poor pre season with the Matthew Stokes saga and the continuing talk of where Ablett will play next year. A ton of key players on the wrong side of 30 - Scarlett, Ottens, Mooney, Milburn, Corey, Ling, Rooke are all not going to get any better and the loss of captain Harley to retirement might hurt them more than people think. Pre season they lost to Nth who were subsequently beaten by Fremantle in Melbourne and to Richmond of all teams (even though they played a lot of 2nd stringers). They then came out and beat Fremantle in Victoria but it was only one quarter that really saved them from another defeat. They are my choice to be the sliding team of 2010. Ballsy opinion I know but you'll go broke following the so-called experts in this game. I'm more prepared to back the statistical probablility that one team will have a shocker.

As for the big movers. Only 3 teams come to mind. Kangaroos, Port Adelaide and Fremantle.

Kangaroos have a good developing list, excellent rucks and a host of exciting talls and midfielders. They could sneak under everyone's radar.

Fremantle play 12 games in Perth and if they can win 8 of those and sneak 4 games interstate that could be enough for them to make finals. Pavlich and Sandilands are genuine matchwinners and we will see a better season this year from Haselby who is now fully fit.

Port Adelaide also play 12 games at home. Now have Dean Laidley as an assistant coach and he could be the breath of fresh air the teams needs. They are highly unpredicable but if Laidley can give them some hardness and the young players keep developing they could surprise some people. Harlett, Boak and Banner form a trio of u22 midfielders equal to any in the competition.

Overestimated Teams (teams I want to be opposing early on)
Geelong
Hawthorn
Carlton
West Coast

Underestimated Teams(teams I want to be backing early on)
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Fremantle

Think the market has them about right
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Brisbane
St Kilda
Adelaide

No idea how these teams will perform
Nth Melbourne
Sydney

Genuine rubbish and will be cannon fodder most weeks
Richmond
Melbourne

Racing April 24

Sandown - r2 n2 Jujube, 5 units to win
Big class drop here coming from Gr 2 race last time where wasn't disggraced. Back to midweek city and well off at the weights. Likely leader in a small field and has the powerful trainey/jockey combo of Moody and Nolan on its side. Whats not to like about it !!!!!!!
$2.00 at early line seems a good price.
2nd @ $2.16
Again got the good price on betfair with it starting in the red at race close. Seemed to set a strange pace in front and was disappointed that it didn't have enough kick in it to win. Lesson learned though. No big bets on ordinary horses at midweek meetings. Unless they are absolute morals.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Racing March 20

Caulfield r4 n3 Solchow, 1 unit to win
Should probably have won last start and is drawn to get the gun run here. Well eighted with the claim and goes well this track and distance.
2nd @ $3.20
Couldn't cross and worked hard outside the leader. Got grabbed by a swooper late.

Caulfield r7 n9 Definitely Ready, 5 units to win
Classy 3yo resuming in a fairly weak field here. Not only is on the minimum but gets 2kgs off for Rgan making him almost a weighted certaintly. Best runs have been at Caulfield and you would think would be a mile too fast for these if its ready - and I expect Kavangah will have him ready to go.
1st @ $1.95. Took the $1.95 at Centrebet in the morning and was duly rewarded with it ended up SPing at $1.60. Easy 2 length winner.

Maybe more to come later.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Golf - WGC CA Championship

Oliver Wilson 0.5 units to win @ $70 (betfair)
Sticking with Wilson here. Didn't have much luck in the middle rounds last week and his work from tee to green was excellent. Still managed to finish top 25 and if he didn't go back to back double bogeys would have finished a lot closer. A top 10 finish at his first attempt here last year and past history has shown that some players simply play well here whilst others don't.

Soren Kjeldsen 0.5 units to win @ $180 (betfair)
Has a terrific record at Doral with two top 10 finishes in the last two years. Seldom makes an appearance in the US so this tournalment is obviously one of his favourites.

Soren Kjeldsen 1.5 units to win 3 ball (vs J Kelly & F Molinari), 1.5 units @ $2.90 (Centrebet)
Neither Kelly or Molinari have figured in the top 20 here in the past 3 years whilst Kjeldsen as above has a great record. Doral is a real horses for courses course and his opponents aren't world beaters either.

Horrific tournalment with both players finishing last and 3rd last respectively. No cut here....

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Golf - Honda Classic

Got a few bets here so won't go into too much detail.

Rory McIlroy - 1.5 units to win @ $17.5 (betfair)
In form, good putter, great GIR which is vital around here. Deserves to be favourite.

Robert Allenby - 1 unit to win @ $17 (betfair)
Now based in Florida which is advantageous being the first event here this season. Very
consistent with not too many weaknesses to his game at the moment.

Tim Clark - 1 unit to win @ $42 (betfair)
Bit of a non winner but one of the most accurate drivers on tour. Putting is also a strong point and that will be handy on these big greens.

Stephen Ames - 0.5 units to win @ $80 (betfair)
Not my favourite golfer to bet on but does play well in Florida and has a strong GIR rating.

Oliver Wilson - 0.5 units to win @ $90 (betfair), 1.5 units top 25 @ $3.50 (Sportingbet)
Game is strong all round at the moment with his putting being the standout. Overpriced at $90 here.

Chad Collins - 1 unit @ $4.50 to finish top 25 (Sporstbet)
Good Florida player and both driving accuracy and putting are above average in this field.

John Senden - 1 unit @ $4.50 to finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
Great ball striker and whilst his putting generally is terrible, his lag putting isn't that bad.

Fairly ordinary with only Wilson sneaking in for a top 25 position.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Racing 1st March

Goulburn r2 n9, Our Banshee, 1.5 units to win
Very weak maiden here. From in form Guy Walter stable with a decent jockey on board. Good effort last time and did have some support in a city class race 2 starts back indicating that someone thinks it has got some ability.
2nd @ $3.60
Great ride but just beaten by a better one on the day.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Racing February 28th

Dubbo r5 n2, Double Header, 1 unit to win
Impressive win at its 2nd start racing away for an easy 4 length victory. First start was beaten by the above average city class galloper Winter King. Jockey a concern but hopefully he just bounces to the front and stays out of trouble.
Unplaced @ $4

Sunshine Coast r6 n4, Belletrist, 1 unit to win
Two runs this time in have been full of merit. 3yo filly in open class here and near top of weights the query but could just be above the rest of these.
1st @ $2.10

Taree r6 No's 1 & 2, 1.5 units to win
Will probably be $1.50 if you back the both of them but you would think the winner of the race will come from either. Found it very hard to split as both have their pluses and minuses.
1st @ $4.80

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Golf - Phoenix Open

Ryan Moore - 1 unit to win @ $14 (Betfair)
One shot off the pace at the halfway mark. On a course where driving and GIR is important, Moore has impressive figures this season being 2nd in total driving and 10th in GIR. Broke through for his maiden victory last year. Tournalment of late has a history of throwing up some 'non-name' winners with JB Holmes, Aaron Baddeley and Jonathan Kaye having won 4 of the last 6 titles. Moore also went to college in Nevada so the desert courses should suit.

Villegas looks the logical favourite at the stage but could he be jaded after the matchplay last week ? Not totally convinced either that Kim has returned back to his best either. After those two players Moore is the best credentialed of the leading bunch.

Happy to back @ $14 and may look to trade at end of 3rd round.

Had an absolute shocker in the 3rd round but rallied in the 4th but by then it was too late.

Racing February 27th

Caulfield r8 n2, Take The Rap, 1.5 units to win
Has good form for this having beaten most of his rivals today under the same conditions last start. Should get the gun run from his inside barrier and on pace style suits tight Caulfield circuit.
Unplaced @ $4.20
Stop start affair that just didn't suit him.

Geelong r4 n2, Forty Days, 1 unit to win
Has pretty good 2nd up form with a last start 3rd in Sydney Saturday company. Drops in grade here and could have too much ability for some of these.
3rd @ 3.30
Track had deteriorated by the time he ran and fancy he wasn't suited on the choppy surface.

Ascot r4 n2, Big Ted, 1 unit to win
Best form generally fresh but trainer has elected to go on with it here. Good record track and distance and $5 seems reasonable value in this field.
1st @ $4.80
Top run. Sat outside the leader on a hot tempo but dug deep to win.

Ascot r5 n3 Given Vision, 1.5 units to win
Most consistent horse who runs very well here. Top effort last start after being wide throughout. Has in form jockey W Pike on board and should go well.
Unplaced @ $7
Just not good enough on the day.

Ascot r6 n9 Morant, 1 units to win
A get back type who I normally avoid however meets a field full of horses resuming. Again has W Pike to ride and hopefully he will have it positioned a bit more forward than usual. If there is any pace on has a withering sprint and can run over the top of them.
1st @ $3.00
Huge performance after being 3w the trip. Rallied on the corner after looking finished and overpowered them on the line. Is one of the better horses in WA on that effort and may even be worth following if it comes over to the eastern states during the autumn.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Racing February 26th

Bendigo r3 n10, Thankgoditsfriday, 1 unit to win
Has been a model of consistency and gets its chance to break through here. In form jockey on board and should be either leading or just behind leader from barrier 1. Query on the first starter Rundle. If it starts favourite, then I would recommend having a saver on it.
2nd @ $7
Got out with plenty of time but was swamped by the impressive favourite.

Randwick r5 n2 El Zegri, 2 units to win
Speedy type well suited by by the 1000m at Kensington. Showed plenty of heart to win last start and has yet to finish out of a place at this track. Hard to beat here.
Unplaced @ $6.50
Led as expected but was pressured from the outset and packed up in the last 50m.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Racing 24th February

Betfair Park - r3 n5 Tennessee Charm, 1 unit to win
I'm back on the racing scene again.....The two favourites in the race were both disappointing last time and both may have already peaked. Tennessee Charm has been maintaining her form and is an on speed type in a race where the horses in the market are all mainly swoopers. $6.00 seems to be a good price and she should give backers a good sight for their money.
Unplaced @ $8
Didn't see or hear the race.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Golf - Accenture Matchplay

Jim Furyk - 1 unit to win @ $42
Two starts this season for a 20th and a 35th at Pebble Beach last week. Record in matchplay events isn't great having never gotten past the 3rd round in 5 starts.

So why am I backing him ?

1. His bracket is probably the softest of all the brackets and if he can get through the first 3 rounds (likely opponents after Verplank in the first round are Mahan and Cink) I think he will succesfully win his draw as the best players in the bottom half are Zach Johnson and Casey neither of whom are setting the world on fire at the moment.
2. If he can negotiate the Snead group he then faces the winner of the Player group in the semis. This is probably the 3rd easiest group with Westwood the top seed.
3. He likes playing in Arizona having played there in college.
4. The price. Simply put, getting $42 about a player of Furyk's quality in a field missing Tiger is too hard to resist.

Will probably trade this out as we get closer - lets hope we get that far though.

Once again Furyk's record in matchplay stands.

Tennis ATP Memphis

John Isner 3 units to win @ $1.33 (Betfair inc comm) v Nieminen
Tommy Haas 1 unit to win @ 1.43 (Betfair inc comm) v Malisse

Short but I think both are well and truly over the odds here.

A chop out here with big Isner winning but Haas surprisingly beaten.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Racing February 13th

Back with the gallops today.

Randwick r5 n1 More Joyous, 5 units to win
Big bet but well deserved here. In my opinion the 2nd best horse in Australia and it resumes today in a moderate Gr2 Fillies race. Is bulletproof as far as racing style is concerned and with Nash Rawiller on board it should find a good position. Took the $2.15 on offer from Centrebet yesterday (now $2 or $1.90 most places) and expect it to start a bit shorter than that.

Blew them away for an easy victory. I very much doubt that it will start that price against its own sex and age again this campaign

Monday, February 8, 2010

Tennis - SAP Open

Santiago Giraldo 1 unit to win @ $2.46 ($2.38comm Betfair) v Dudi Sela
Giraldo comes into this with some good form over the last 6 months. Beat Robredo in Australia in straight sets, beaten in the quarters by a red hot Cilic at Chennai but did take him to a tie break in the first set and was beaten by Gasquet late in the year but only after losing the 3rd set in a breaker. Gets back to his preferred hard courts here.

Sela's form on the other hand is very mediocre. Only victory over a top 100 player this year was in Chennai (Lukas Lacko 82) and before that we have to go all the way back to July 2009 to see another win (Robert Kendrick 80).

Indoor courts a query for Giraldo whilst Sela seems to go okay. This is the only query for me hence the reduced outlay of 1 unit.

Lost in straight sets however it was 7-6, 7-6.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Golf - PGA Northern Trust Open

Mike Weir - 1 unit to win @ $42 (Betfair)
Impressive record at Riviera and his form this season so far has been first class. Great short game which is why he always plays well here.

KJ Choi - 1 unit to win @ $41 (Sportsbet)
Improved effort last week and has to win another event sooner or later. Driving well and leads the tour in GIR from 75-100 yards. Putting is solid but not spectacular. Two top 10 finishes here in his last two appearances.

Angel Cabrera - 0.5 unit to win @ $61 (Luxbet)
Classy player with two top 25 finishes from two attempts so far this year. Probably the best scrambler in golf and being an older player with soft hands the change over to V shaped grooves from square grooves means he has an even bigger advantage around the greens. Tied 13th here last year.

Mike Weir - 2 units @ $2.00 finish top 25 (Sportingbet)
Just a fantastic price for Weir here.

Michael Allen - 2 units @ $4.50 finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
Another older player who seems to be benefiting from the younger players struggling with the V shaped grooves. Having a career year so far this season. Record here not great but am prepared to take a punt on his form holding up.

Pretty much a disaster with the win only bets all missing the cut and blowing the Mike Weir top 25 finish out as well. Allen was in contention all week and finished T27, just one shot from a top 25 position. Cursed....

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Golf - Qatar Masters

Jamie Donaldson - 0.5 units to win @ $320 (Betfair)
Jamie Donaldson - 2 units top 25 @ $6.00 (Sporstbet)

Strong wind conditions predicted for Thursday with Ian Poulter sayingg on his twitter that the wind during his practice round the day before made the course almost unplayable.
Big advantage here to players who hit off early Thursday. Whilst the conditions may still be windy you would think that the afternoon would be even worse.
Donaldson hits off early and has been in reasonable form with a top 20 finish last week. One of the better putters on the European Tour this will also be an advantage on Doha's big greens. Coming from Walles, he should be familiar with the windy conditions and its notable that some of his best performances last year came in such events as the Scottish and Irish Opens. Well and truly over the odds here.

The less said about this selection the better.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Tennis Update

With Azarenka leading 4-0 in the 2nd set, I took the opportunity to get rid of my liability on her @ $3.40. Not taking any chances as Serena is a gutsy fighter.

Chopped out on the womens tennis and walked away with a profit in the mens thanks to Federer. Couldn't do any laying back in the Cilic match as he never got to a decent price and in the end just let Federer run around for me with no hedging.

Racing January 27th

Geelong r6 n10, Tennessee Charm, 1 unit to win
Seems to drop in class here but is going from mares to an open restricted handicap. Small field and looks the likely leader in a race where there isn't much speed. Got my doubts about some of the others and am always happy to back leaders in small fields over a bit of distance.
2nd @2.80.
Colder than a mother in laws kiss on the gallops at the moment.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Racing 26th January

Caulfield r8 n3, Davcon, 1 unit to win.
Okay, we're dipping our toes back in the water on the gallops after a brief hiatus recharging the batteries. No luck for this horse at recent starts being caught wide. Two of his four wins have been 2nd up and has a good strike rate (placings wise) this track and distance. Brent Stanley is riding well also and horse is trained at track. Plenty of speed on here and I have a slight suspiscion that the track could be favouring the swoopers as we get towards the end of the day. $15 in early markets appeals as great value and we should even get better odds as the race draws closer. Each way if you like but I'm just going for the straight out option here.
Unplaced @ $15
Never gave a yelp

Randwick r2 n6, Suyama, 1 unit each way.
Lightly raced promising stayer in the Bart Cummings stable (that should be enough in itself really......). First three runs were all on rain affected going where it struggled. Since returning from a spell and onto the firmer going it has thrived with a good win last time after being caught wide early and then taken to the front. Gets barrier 1 here and should either be leading or sitting right behind them. $9.00 in the early markets and will probably back it at that price.
4th @ $9
Backed into $8. led into the straight but was well beaten by the 3rd horse.

Definitely giving up each way betting now. Its just too costly in the long haul for little reward.

Whilst both selections were beaten I am happy with my thought processes that went into each choice. The two weeks off has been good in making me see the form a bit clearer and I feel the tide will turn soon if I can keep it simple and stop clouding the issues.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Tennis Aus Open - Jan 25th

F Schiavone $4.30 (Betfair) 1.5 units to win against Venus Williams
Schiavone is well conditioned for this having played a number of tournalments already this year. On the flip side Venus has played a couple of exhibitions and conditioning could be an issue for her as we enter the 2nd week. Williams has only made the quarters once since 2003. Getting taken to a tie break against Delacqua does not signify to me that she is in reasonable form. Schiavone gave A Radwanska a touch up in the 3rd round and thats good enough for this. Terrific value selection here.

May trade here if its called for.

Update : Just laid Schiavone @ $1.88 to get my stake back. Now wins me just on 3 units with Williams a chop out.

Schiavone should have won but got the staggers at the end. No harm done though.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Aus Open tennis - Jan 24

John Isner - 1.5 units @ $8.60 (Betfair) v Andy Murray - To Trade.
Big serving American who is in grand form so far this season. Dangerous player as serve is very hard to break and he has a terrific record in tie breaks batting at just above 66% and wiith an unblemished record in them so far this season. Murray has a poor record here having never gotten past the 4th round. Could it happen again ? Happy to trade here as the $8.60 offers a terrific opportunity.

Never got a chance to trade him at a reasonable price.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Aus Open Tennis - Jan 22

Feliciano Lopez $10.50, 1 unit to trade (Betfair) v Roddick..
Will be a stinking hot day in Melbourne today and Roddick does have a propensity to melt. $10.50 is huge odds for a veryy consistent player on the ATP tour. Being Spanish the hot conditions will suit and the courts will also slow taking the edge off Roddicks serve. Don't think he will win but definitely offers some trading opportunities.
Traded out for 2 units @ $4.00 at the end of the first set leaving me wiith a profit of 1 unit with Roddick winning. Had planned to do more trading but Roddick quickly got on top of him and the market never reached an acceptable level for me to doo any more business.

Alona Bondarenka $3.10, 1.5 units to win (Betfair) v Jankovic
Bondarenka comes into this in good form having been a finalist and semi finalist at her last two tournalments. Took Kutnetsova to three sets back in October. Jankovic has a 5-0 record against her but they haven't played against each other for over 2 years. Jelena lost rd 1 in Sydney in the heat and gets similar conditions today.
Straight sets victory for Bondarenka. Jankovic really struggled in the heat and her serve was terrible. I'm no womens tennis expert but it seems the glamour trio from a few years ago of Sharapova, Jankovic and Ivanovic have really gone off the boil. They seem more interested in the PR side of tennis and just can't match the intensity of the new group coming through. I'd be happy to lay any of them (in the case of Sharapova and Ana I mean that literally too -hahaha) against any opponent until they start showing something, which looks to be along way off.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Tennis - Aus Open

Womens
Azarenka to win - 1 unit @ $29 (Betfair)

Mens
Federer to win - 3 units @ $3.85 (Betfair)
Cilic to win - 1 unit @ $50 (Betfair)

All tips courtesy of Sport is Made For Betting (http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/). Scott is a genius on the tennis and if there is one blogger you want to follow blindly into, its him.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Golf - PGA Sony Open

Tim Clark - 1 unit to win @ $42 (Betfair)
Accurate driver with a good record here finishing 12th at his first attempt last season. Coming into this with some southern hemisphere form and looks over the odds to me.
Finished well but got off to a slow start.

Mark Wilson - 1 unit top 25 @ $4.25 (Centrebet)
Tied 20th and was always in contention
Chez Reavie - 1 unit top 25 @ $5.00 (Centrebet)
Missed Cut

Both players look over the odds for the top 25 market, particularly Wilson who is an accurate driver and who played last week.

May have some more match up bets later on.

I'm giving the racing a slight spell for the moment. Absoloutly cold and just can't seem to get motivated to do a proper analysis. Bets to take two weeks off, look at where I've been going wrong and come back refreshed. On the plus side we have plenty of tennis and gold in the next fortnight so will certainly still be active on the punting side.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Racing 10th January

Warrnambool - r7 n3 Bolle, 1.5 units each way
Has a great record this track and drawn to get a good run here. Solid effort in good time fresh last start. Has the benefit of D Yendall to ride here who is in hot form. Envisage it being leaders back in the run and looks a safe each way bet here.

Unplaced @ $3.60
My pathetic run on the gallops continues.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Golf - SBS Championship

We'll dip our toe into the water for the first event on the US PGA Tour for 2010.

Retief Goosen @ $16 - 1 unit to win (Flem Sports Bet)
Good wind player who should have his game in reasonable nick as he played during December in Sth Africa. A lot of the players are first up from a spell and may be a bit rusty and as we've seen with Appleby this tournalment often favours the southern hemisphere players who are coming off relatively recent tournalments. Also hits the ball long which is an advantage here.

Dustin Johnson @ $23 - 1 unit to win (Sportingbet)
Prodigous hitter who should be suited on this course. Best form last year was early on in the season. A bit of a hit and hope bet but without any form to go on he seems a reasonable gamble.

Both players fairly well beaten and were never in contention.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Racing 5th January

Ararat r7 n12 Starxaar, 2 units to win.
Broke its maiden in impressive fashion after being caught wide with no cover throughout yet still too strong on the line. Drawn to get a good run here and should be close enough to impose itself. Hard to beat here.

2nd @ 3.80
Ran on hard but never really looked like winning.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Racing 2nd January

Moonee Valley r2, n4 Testa My Patience - 1.5 units to win.
Promising type in good stable who ran terrific sectionals to win last time in a race that didn't overly suit. Seems to be a bit of pace on here and should get every chance with Mertens on board as well.
3rd @ #3.20
Seemed to get a little further back than it wanted to but that said was beaten by a smart one.

Wentworth Park Dogs r8 n8 Did I Entertain - 2 units to win
Looks to be the clear early leader and has a great record from the 8 box. Ran best of the night time last week and is clearly going to be very hard to beat here.
3rd @ $2.50
Even getting beaten at the dogs now !!!!!

Capped off a horror 2 week period where POT has reduced from a tick over 18% to now just above 10%.
However, as I've said before +18% POT is totally unrealistic and 10% is really where it should be at (and even that might be too high).

Had a bit of trouble reading races lately and maybe I'm just getting a bit overly technical with it, seeing trouble where it shouldn't be and then selecting a horse that might not really qualify as a good bet. Maybe its the Xmas period and my concentration is just not where it should be.