Thursday, January 28, 2010

Golf - Qatar Masters

Jamie Donaldson - 0.5 units to win @ $320 (Betfair)
Jamie Donaldson - 2 units top 25 @ $6.00 (Sporstbet)

Strong wind conditions predicted for Thursday with Ian Poulter sayingg on his twitter that the wind during his practice round the day before made the course almost unplayable.
Big advantage here to players who hit off early Thursday. Whilst the conditions may still be windy you would think that the afternoon would be even worse.
Donaldson hits off early and has been in reasonable form with a top 20 finish last week. One of the better putters on the European Tour this will also be an advantage on Doha's big greens. Coming from Walles, he should be familiar with the windy conditions and its notable that some of his best performances last year came in such events as the Scottish and Irish Opens. Well and truly over the odds here.

The less said about this selection the better.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Tennis Update

With Azarenka leading 4-0 in the 2nd set, I took the opportunity to get rid of my liability on her @ $3.40. Not taking any chances as Serena is a gutsy fighter.

Chopped out on the womens tennis and walked away with a profit in the mens thanks to Federer. Couldn't do any laying back in the Cilic match as he never got to a decent price and in the end just let Federer run around for me with no hedging.

Racing January 27th

Geelong r6 n10, Tennessee Charm, 1 unit to win
Seems to drop in class here but is going from mares to an open restricted handicap. Small field and looks the likely leader in a race where there isn't much speed. Got my doubts about some of the others and am always happy to back leaders in small fields over a bit of distance.
2nd @2.80.
Colder than a mother in laws kiss on the gallops at the moment.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Racing 26th January

Caulfield r8 n3, Davcon, 1 unit to win.
Okay, we're dipping our toes back in the water on the gallops after a brief hiatus recharging the batteries. No luck for this horse at recent starts being caught wide. Two of his four wins have been 2nd up and has a good strike rate (placings wise) this track and distance. Brent Stanley is riding well also and horse is trained at track. Plenty of speed on here and I have a slight suspiscion that the track could be favouring the swoopers as we get towards the end of the day. $15 in early markets appeals as great value and we should even get better odds as the race draws closer. Each way if you like but I'm just going for the straight out option here.
Unplaced @ $15
Never gave a yelp

Randwick r2 n6, Suyama, 1 unit each way.
Lightly raced promising stayer in the Bart Cummings stable (that should be enough in itself really......). First three runs were all on rain affected going where it struggled. Since returning from a spell and onto the firmer going it has thrived with a good win last time after being caught wide early and then taken to the front. Gets barrier 1 here and should either be leading or sitting right behind them. $9.00 in the early markets and will probably back it at that price.
4th @ $9
Backed into $8. led into the straight but was well beaten by the 3rd horse.

Definitely giving up each way betting now. Its just too costly in the long haul for little reward.

Whilst both selections were beaten I am happy with my thought processes that went into each choice. The two weeks off has been good in making me see the form a bit clearer and I feel the tide will turn soon if I can keep it simple and stop clouding the issues.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Tennis Aus Open - Jan 25th

F Schiavone $4.30 (Betfair) 1.5 units to win against Venus Williams
Schiavone is well conditioned for this having played a number of tournalments already this year. On the flip side Venus has played a couple of exhibitions and conditioning could be an issue for her as we enter the 2nd week. Williams has only made the quarters once since 2003. Getting taken to a tie break against Delacqua does not signify to me that she is in reasonable form. Schiavone gave A Radwanska a touch up in the 3rd round and thats good enough for this. Terrific value selection here.

May trade here if its called for.

Update : Just laid Schiavone @ $1.88 to get my stake back. Now wins me just on 3 units with Williams a chop out.

Schiavone should have won but got the staggers at the end. No harm done though.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Aus Open tennis - Jan 24

John Isner - 1.5 units @ $8.60 (Betfair) v Andy Murray - To Trade.
Big serving American who is in grand form so far this season. Dangerous player as serve is very hard to break and he has a terrific record in tie breaks batting at just above 66% and wiith an unblemished record in them so far this season. Murray has a poor record here having never gotten past the 4th round. Could it happen again ? Happy to trade here as the $8.60 offers a terrific opportunity.

Never got a chance to trade him at a reasonable price.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Aus Open Tennis - Jan 22

Feliciano Lopez $10.50, 1 unit to trade (Betfair) v Roddick..
Will be a stinking hot day in Melbourne today and Roddick does have a propensity to melt. $10.50 is huge odds for a veryy consistent player on the ATP tour. Being Spanish the hot conditions will suit and the courts will also slow taking the edge off Roddicks serve. Don't think he will win but definitely offers some trading opportunities.
Traded out for 2 units @ $4.00 at the end of the first set leaving me wiith a profit of 1 unit with Roddick winning. Had planned to do more trading but Roddick quickly got on top of him and the market never reached an acceptable level for me to doo any more business.

Alona Bondarenka $3.10, 1.5 units to win (Betfair) v Jankovic
Bondarenka comes into this in good form having been a finalist and semi finalist at her last two tournalments. Took Kutnetsova to three sets back in October. Jankovic has a 5-0 record against her but they haven't played against each other for over 2 years. Jelena lost rd 1 in Sydney in the heat and gets similar conditions today.
Straight sets victory for Bondarenka. Jankovic really struggled in the heat and her serve was terrible. I'm no womens tennis expert but it seems the glamour trio from a few years ago of Sharapova, Jankovic and Ivanovic have really gone off the boil. They seem more interested in the PR side of tennis and just can't match the intensity of the new group coming through. I'd be happy to lay any of them (in the case of Sharapova and Ana I mean that literally too -hahaha) against any opponent until they start showing something, which looks to be along way off.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Tennis - Aus Open

Azarenka to win - 1 unit @ $29 (Betfair)

Federer to win - 3 units @ $3.85 (Betfair)
Cilic to win - 1 unit @ $50 (Betfair)

All tips courtesy of Sport is Made For Betting ( Scott is a genius on the tennis and if there is one blogger you want to follow blindly into, its him.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Golf - PGA Sony Open

Tim Clark - 1 unit to win @ $42 (Betfair)
Accurate driver with a good record here finishing 12th at his first attempt last season. Coming into this with some southern hemisphere form and looks over the odds to me.
Finished well but got off to a slow start.

Mark Wilson - 1 unit top 25 @ $4.25 (Centrebet)
Tied 20th and was always in contention
Chez Reavie - 1 unit top 25 @ $5.00 (Centrebet)
Missed Cut

Both players look over the odds for the top 25 market, particularly Wilson who is an accurate driver and who played last week.

May have some more match up bets later on.

I'm giving the racing a slight spell for the moment. Absoloutly cold and just can't seem to get motivated to do a proper analysis. Bets to take two weeks off, look at where I've been going wrong and come back refreshed. On the plus side we have plenty of tennis and gold in the next fortnight so will certainly still be active on the punting side.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Racing 10th January

Warrnambool - r7 n3 Bolle, 1.5 units each way
Has a great record this track and drawn to get a good run here. Solid effort in good time fresh last start. Has the benefit of D Yendall to ride here who is in hot form. Envisage it being leaders back in the run and looks a safe each way bet here.

Unplaced @ $3.60
My pathetic run on the gallops continues.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Golf - SBS Championship

We'll dip our toe into the water for the first event on the US PGA Tour for 2010.

Retief Goosen @ $16 - 1 unit to win (Flem Sports Bet)
Good wind player who should have his game in reasonable nick as he played during December in Sth Africa. A lot of the players are first up from a spell and may be a bit rusty and as we've seen with Appleby this tournalment often favours the southern hemisphere players who are coming off relatively recent tournalments. Also hits the ball long which is an advantage here.

Dustin Johnson @ $23 - 1 unit to win (Sportingbet)
Prodigous hitter who should be suited on this course. Best form last year was early on in the season. A bit of a hit and hope bet but without any form to go on he seems a reasonable gamble.

Both players fairly well beaten and were never in contention.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Racing 5th January

Ararat r7 n12 Starxaar, 2 units to win.
Broke its maiden in impressive fashion after being caught wide with no cover throughout yet still too strong on the line. Drawn to get a good run here and should be close enough to impose itself. Hard to beat here.

2nd @ 3.80
Ran on hard but never really looked like winning.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Racing 2nd January

Moonee Valley r2, n4 Testa My Patience - 1.5 units to win.
Promising type in good stable who ran terrific sectionals to win last time in a race that didn't overly suit. Seems to be a bit of pace on here and should get every chance with Mertens on board as well.
3rd @ #3.20
Seemed to get a little further back than it wanted to but that said was beaten by a smart one.

Wentworth Park Dogs r8 n8 Did I Entertain - 2 units to win
Looks to be the clear early leader and has a great record from the 8 box. Ran best of the night time last week and is clearly going to be very hard to beat here.
3rd @ $2.50
Even getting beaten at the dogs now !!!!!

Capped off a horror 2 week period where POT has reduced from a tick over 18% to now just above 10%.
However, as I've said before +18% POT is totally unrealistic and 10% is really where it should be at (and even that might be too high).

Had a bit of trouble reading races lately and maybe I'm just getting a bit overly technical with it, seeing trouble where it shouldn't be and then selecting a horse that might not really qualify as a good bet. Maybe its the Xmas period and my concentration is just not where it should be.