Sunday, February 28, 2010

Racing February 28th

Dubbo r5 n2, Double Header, 1 unit to win
Impressive win at its 2nd start racing away for an easy 4 length victory. First start was beaten by the above average city class galloper Winter King. Jockey a concern but hopefully he just bounces to the front and stays out of trouble.
Unplaced @ $4

Sunshine Coast r6 n4, Belletrist, 1 unit to win
Two runs this time in have been full of merit. 3yo filly in open class here and near top of weights the query but could just be above the rest of these.
1st @ $2.10

Taree r6 No's 1 & 2, 1.5 units to win
Will probably be $1.50 if you back the both of them but you would think the winner of the race will come from either. Found it very hard to split as both have their pluses and minuses.
1st @ $4.80

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Golf - Phoenix Open

Ryan Moore - 1 unit to win @ $14 (Betfair)
One shot off the pace at the halfway mark. On a course where driving and GIR is important, Moore has impressive figures this season being 2nd in total driving and 10th in GIR. Broke through for his maiden victory last year. Tournalment of late has a history of throwing up some 'non-name' winners with JB Holmes, Aaron Baddeley and Jonathan Kaye having won 4 of the last 6 titles. Moore also went to college in Nevada so the desert courses should suit.

Villegas looks the logical favourite at the stage but could he be jaded after the matchplay last week ? Not totally convinced either that Kim has returned back to his best either. After those two players Moore is the best credentialed of the leading bunch.

Happy to back @ $14 and may look to trade at end of 3rd round.

Had an absolute shocker in the 3rd round but rallied in the 4th but by then it was too late.

Racing February 27th

Caulfield r8 n2, Take The Rap, 1.5 units to win
Has good form for this having beaten most of his rivals today under the same conditions last start. Should get the gun run from his inside barrier and on pace style suits tight Caulfield circuit.
Unplaced @ $4.20
Stop start affair that just didn't suit him.

Geelong r4 n2, Forty Days, 1 unit to win
Has pretty good 2nd up form with a last start 3rd in Sydney Saturday company. Drops in grade here and could have too much ability for some of these.
3rd @ 3.30
Track had deteriorated by the time he ran and fancy he wasn't suited on the choppy surface.

Ascot r4 n2, Big Ted, 1 unit to win
Best form generally fresh but trainer has elected to go on with it here. Good record track and distance and $5 seems reasonable value in this field.
1st @ $4.80
Top run. Sat outside the leader on a hot tempo but dug deep to win.

Ascot r5 n3 Given Vision, 1.5 units to win
Most consistent horse who runs very well here. Top effort last start after being wide throughout. Has in form jockey W Pike on board and should go well.
Unplaced @ $7
Just not good enough on the day.

Ascot r6 n9 Morant, 1 units to win
A get back type who I normally avoid however meets a field full of horses resuming. Again has W Pike to ride and hopefully he will have it positioned a bit more forward than usual. If there is any pace on has a withering sprint and can run over the top of them.
1st @ $3.00
Huge performance after being 3w the trip. Rallied on the corner after looking finished and overpowered them on the line. Is one of the better horses in WA on that effort and may even be worth following if it comes over to the eastern states during the autumn.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Racing February 26th

Bendigo r3 n10, Thankgoditsfriday, 1 unit to win
Has been a model of consistency and gets its chance to break through here. In form jockey on board and should be either leading or just behind leader from barrier 1. Query on the first starter Rundle. If it starts favourite, then I would recommend having a saver on it.
2nd @ $7
Got out with plenty of time but was swamped by the impressive favourite.

Randwick r5 n2 El Zegri, 2 units to win
Speedy type well suited by by the 1000m at Kensington. Showed plenty of heart to win last start and has yet to finish out of a place at this track. Hard to beat here.
Unplaced @ $6.50
Led as expected but was pressured from the outset and packed up in the last 50m.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Racing 24th February

Betfair Park - r3 n5 Tennessee Charm, 1 unit to win
I'm back on the racing scene again.....The two favourites in the race were both disappointing last time and both may have already peaked. Tennessee Charm has been maintaining her form and is an on speed type in a race where the horses in the market are all mainly swoopers. $6.00 seems to be a good price and she should give backers a good sight for their money.
Unplaced @ $8
Didn't see or hear the race.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Golf - Accenture Matchplay

Jim Furyk - 1 unit to win @ $42
Two starts this season for a 20th and a 35th at Pebble Beach last week. Record in matchplay events isn't great having never gotten past the 3rd round in 5 starts.

So why am I backing him ?

1. His bracket is probably the softest of all the brackets and if he can get through the first 3 rounds (likely opponents after Verplank in the first round are Mahan and Cink) I think he will succesfully win his draw as the best players in the bottom half are Zach Johnson and Casey neither of whom are setting the world on fire at the moment.
2. If he can negotiate the Snead group he then faces the winner of the Player group in the semis. This is probably the 3rd easiest group with Westwood the top seed.
3. He likes playing in Arizona having played there in college.
4. The price. Simply put, getting $42 about a player of Furyk's quality in a field missing Tiger is too hard to resist.

Will probably trade this out as we get closer - lets hope we get that far though.

Once again Furyk's record in matchplay stands.

Tennis ATP Memphis

John Isner 3 units to win @ $1.33 (Betfair inc comm) v Nieminen
Tommy Haas 1 unit to win @ 1.43 (Betfair inc comm) v Malisse

Short but I think both are well and truly over the odds here.

A chop out here with big Isner winning but Haas surprisingly beaten.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Racing February 13th

Back with the gallops today.

Randwick r5 n1 More Joyous, 5 units to win
Big bet but well deserved here. In my opinion the 2nd best horse in Australia and it resumes today in a moderate Gr2 Fillies race. Is bulletproof as far as racing style is concerned and with Nash Rawiller on board it should find a good position. Took the $2.15 on offer from Centrebet yesterday (now $2 or $1.90 most places) and expect it to start a bit shorter than that.

Blew them away for an easy victory. I very much doubt that it will start that price against its own sex and age again this campaign

Monday, February 8, 2010

Tennis - SAP Open

Santiago Giraldo 1 unit to win @ $2.46 ($2.38comm Betfair) v Dudi Sela
Giraldo comes into this with some good form over the last 6 months. Beat Robredo in Australia in straight sets, beaten in the quarters by a red hot Cilic at Chennai but did take him to a tie break in the first set and was beaten by Gasquet late in the year but only after losing the 3rd set in a breaker. Gets back to his preferred hard courts here.

Sela's form on the other hand is very mediocre. Only victory over a top 100 player this year was in Chennai (Lukas Lacko 82) and before that we have to go all the way back to July 2009 to see another win (Robert Kendrick 80).

Indoor courts a query for Giraldo whilst Sela seems to go okay. This is the only query for me hence the reduced outlay of 1 unit.

Lost in straight sets however it was 7-6, 7-6.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Golf - PGA Northern Trust Open

Mike Weir - 1 unit to win @ $42 (Betfair)
Impressive record at Riviera and his form this season so far has been first class. Great short game which is why he always plays well here.

KJ Choi - 1 unit to win @ $41 (Sportsbet)
Improved effort last week and has to win another event sooner or later. Driving well and leads the tour in GIR from 75-100 yards. Putting is solid but not spectacular. Two top 10 finishes here in his last two appearances.

Angel Cabrera - 0.5 unit to win @ $61 (Luxbet)
Classy player with two top 25 finishes from two attempts so far this year. Probably the best scrambler in golf and being an older player with soft hands the change over to V shaped grooves from square grooves means he has an even bigger advantage around the greens. Tied 13th here last year.

Mike Weir - 2 units @ $2.00 finish top 25 (Sportingbet)
Just a fantastic price for Weir here.

Michael Allen - 2 units @ $4.50 finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
Another older player who seems to be benefiting from the younger players struggling with the V shaped grooves. Having a career year so far this season. Record here not great but am prepared to take a punt on his form holding up.

Pretty much a disaster with the win only bets all missing the cut and blowing the Mike Weir top 25 finish out as well. Allen was in contention all week and finished T27, just one shot from a top 25 position. Cursed....