Tuesday, March 30, 2010

AFL Rd 2

Kangaroos 3 units @ +36.5 ($1.91, Centrebet) v St Kilda
Nth have a good record against St Kilda in recent years with the wins at two each over the last two years. This is particularly relevant given that St Kilda have been strong in these years whilst Nth have been relatively weak. St Kilda are coming off a tough slog against Sydney at ANZ stadium. Teams traditionally usually struggle coming off a Sydney game as they play a physical brand of football.

Last year the Kangaroos were one of only two teams to beat St Kilda during the regular season and in the other game they were right in it before getting blown away late.

St Kilda also without Kochitzke who takes a lot of heat away from Riewoldt and Nth may now be able to double team him with impunity limiting their scoring.

Kangaroos are probably a good value bet to even win here but I'm inclined to take the start in what I think could be a low scoring, physical contest.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Races 28th March

Cranbourne r5 n3 El Spark, 3 units to win
Lightly raced filly coming off a last start 5th beaten 2 lenghts in city class last time. The 2nd horse Charteux subsequently won yesterday in feature race at Caulfield so form looks good from that race. In good stable with quality jockey on board. Should go well here in this weak race.
1st @ $3.20
Most impressive win bloting away for an easy win.

Turned a frustrating Saturday into a winning weekend.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Racing 26th March

Caulfield r4 n7 Zauberin, 1 unit to win
Rates very highly for this and is drawn to get the gun run. Smallish field suits and looks hard to beat.
2nd @ $5.50.
Beaten quite comfortable and never looked like winning.

Caulfield r6 n9 Chilled By Choice, 2 units to win
Lightly raced improving type who gets in very well at the weights here. $6.50 in early markets is enormous value and have to be on here.
Unplaced @ $6.00
Very ordinary effort.

Caulfield r8 n10, Johanski, 1 unit to win
Resumes here but was up against smart types such as Jolie Brise and Irish Lights when last in work. In very good stable and trained at the track. $15 in early markets.
2nd @ $16
Looked all over the winner until the very last stride when grabbed on the line. Hate getting beat like that on long shots.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Racing 25th March

Ballarat r5 n7 Zip Lady, 1.5 units to win.
Very moderate group of stayers here and she has at least some solid performances on board of late. Good effort at Geelong last time running on strong in a race where the leaders ran a strong last 600. Gets in on the minimum here and looks hard to beat.

1st @ $3.20
Settled back and ran over the top of them for an easy win.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

AFL 2010 Preview

Well another season is upon us so with that in mind a short preview for the season ahead.

One thing to remember with AFL is that in the last ten years one side from the top 4 the previous year has missed the 8 completely the next year on average once per season, ie it happens every year. On the other side there is usually a surprise packet who looked ordinary the previous year who shoot up and make at least the top 6 the next year. The trick is identifying these sides early and betting accordingly to get the value in the first half of the season.

Firstly to the teams who could have a shocker - Geelong, St Kilda, Bulldogs, Collingwood.

The Bulldogs look impressive and hungry pre seaon and the new addition of Hall only makes them better. They are in the right age group and of all the 4 sides they are the ones I'd be most confident with of maintaining their top 4 position.

Collingwood had a stack of injuries and still played good football last year. They have tremoundous depth and are very even - their 30th best player on the list can quite comfortably slot into their side without missing a beat. I'd find it hard to see them missing.

St Kilda had a heartbreaking loss in last years grand final and their key players are starting to age. Heavily reliant on Riewoldt and Hayes. They are a chance to slide if things don't go their way injury wise.

Now we come to Geelong. Everyone's premiership favourite but not with me. Poor pre season with the Matthew Stokes saga and the continuing talk of where Ablett will play next year. A ton of key players on the wrong side of 30 - Scarlett, Ottens, Mooney, Milburn, Corey, Ling, Rooke are all not going to get any better and the loss of captain Harley to retirement might hurt them more than people think. Pre season they lost to Nth who were subsequently beaten by Fremantle in Melbourne and to Richmond of all teams (even though they played a lot of 2nd stringers). They then came out and beat Fremantle in Victoria but it was only one quarter that really saved them from another defeat. They are my choice to be the sliding team of 2010. Ballsy opinion I know but you'll go broke following the so-called experts in this game. I'm more prepared to back the statistical probablility that one team will have a shocker.

As for the big movers. Only 3 teams come to mind. Kangaroos, Port Adelaide and Fremantle.

Kangaroos have a good developing list, excellent rucks and a host of exciting talls and midfielders. They could sneak under everyone's radar.

Fremantle play 12 games in Perth and if they can win 8 of those and sneak 4 games interstate that could be enough for them to make finals. Pavlich and Sandilands are genuine matchwinners and we will see a better season this year from Haselby who is now fully fit.

Port Adelaide also play 12 games at home. Now have Dean Laidley as an assistant coach and he could be the breath of fresh air the teams needs. They are highly unpredicable but if Laidley can give them some hardness and the young players keep developing they could surprise some people. Harlett, Boak and Banner form a trio of u22 midfielders equal to any in the competition.

Overestimated Teams (teams I want to be opposing early on)
Geelong
Hawthorn
Carlton
West Coast

Underestimated Teams(teams I want to be backing early on)
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Fremantle

Think the market has them about right
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Brisbane
St Kilda
Adelaide

No idea how these teams will perform
Nth Melbourne
Sydney

Genuine rubbish and will be cannon fodder most weeks
Richmond
Melbourne

Racing April 24

Sandown - r2 n2 Jujube, 5 units to win
Big class drop here coming from Gr 2 race last time where wasn't disggraced. Back to midweek city and well off at the weights. Likely leader in a small field and has the powerful trainey/jockey combo of Moody and Nolan on its side. Whats not to like about it !!!!!!!
$2.00 at early line seems a good price.
2nd @ $2.16
Again got the good price on betfair with it starting in the red at race close. Seemed to set a strange pace in front and was disappointed that it didn't have enough kick in it to win. Lesson learned though. No big bets on ordinary horses at midweek meetings. Unless they are absolute morals.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Racing March 20

Caulfield r4 n3 Solchow, 1 unit to win
Should probably have won last start and is drawn to get the gun run here. Well eighted with the claim and goes well this track and distance.
2nd @ $3.20
Couldn't cross and worked hard outside the leader. Got grabbed by a swooper late.

Caulfield r7 n9 Definitely Ready, 5 units to win
Classy 3yo resuming in a fairly weak field here. Not only is on the minimum but gets 2kgs off for Rgan making him almost a weighted certaintly. Best runs have been at Caulfield and you would think would be a mile too fast for these if its ready - and I expect Kavangah will have him ready to go.
1st @ $1.95. Took the $1.95 at Centrebet in the morning and was duly rewarded with it ended up SPing at $1.60. Easy 2 length winner.

Maybe more to come later.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Golf - WGC CA Championship

Oliver Wilson 0.5 units to win @ $70 (betfair)
Sticking with Wilson here. Didn't have much luck in the middle rounds last week and his work from tee to green was excellent. Still managed to finish top 25 and if he didn't go back to back double bogeys would have finished a lot closer. A top 10 finish at his first attempt here last year and past history has shown that some players simply play well here whilst others don't.

Soren Kjeldsen 0.5 units to win @ $180 (betfair)
Has a terrific record at Doral with two top 10 finishes in the last two years. Seldom makes an appearance in the US so this tournalment is obviously one of his favourites.

Soren Kjeldsen 1.5 units to win 3 ball (vs J Kelly & F Molinari), 1.5 units @ $2.90 (Centrebet)
Neither Kelly or Molinari have figured in the top 20 here in the past 3 years whilst Kjeldsen as above has a great record. Doral is a real horses for courses course and his opponents aren't world beaters either.

Horrific tournalment with both players finishing last and 3rd last respectively. No cut here....

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Golf - Honda Classic

Got a few bets here so won't go into too much detail.

Rory McIlroy - 1.5 units to win @ $17.5 (betfair)
In form, good putter, great GIR which is vital around here. Deserves to be favourite.

Robert Allenby - 1 unit to win @ $17 (betfair)
Now based in Florida which is advantageous being the first event here this season. Very
consistent with not too many weaknesses to his game at the moment.

Tim Clark - 1 unit to win @ $42 (betfair)
Bit of a non winner but one of the most accurate drivers on tour. Putting is also a strong point and that will be handy on these big greens.

Stephen Ames - 0.5 units to win @ $80 (betfair)
Not my favourite golfer to bet on but does play well in Florida and has a strong GIR rating.

Oliver Wilson - 0.5 units to win @ $90 (betfair), 1.5 units top 25 @ $3.50 (Sportingbet)
Game is strong all round at the moment with his putting being the standout. Overpriced at $90 here.

Chad Collins - 1 unit @ $4.50 to finish top 25 (Sporstbet)
Good Florida player and both driving accuracy and putting are above average in this field.

John Senden - 1 unit @ $4.50 to finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
Great ball striker and whilst his putting generally is terrible, his lag putting isn't that bad.

Fairly ordinary with only Wilson sneaking in for a top 25 position.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Racing 1st March

Goulburn r2 n9, Our Banshee, 1.5 units to win
Very weak maiden here. From in form Guy Walter stable with a decent jockey on board. Good effort last time and did have some support in a city class race 2 starts back indicating that someone thinks it has got some ability.
2nd @ $3.60
Great ride but just beaten by a better one on the day.