Thursday, April 29, 2010

Golf - Quail Hollow Championship

Nick Watney, 1 unit to win @ $35 (betfair)
Tournalment has been won by up and comers the last two years and Watney is playing well enough to challenge here. Had a great Masters tournalment and really could have gone a lot closer than what he did except for a bit of bad luck. Good all round game means he's suited here.

Adam Scott, 0.5 units to win @ $48 (betfair)
His game is going along well and if he could get his putting to anything half decent he would be back with the best players in the world again. I'm prepared to to take a punt that some putts might drop for him this week.

Fred Couples, 0.5 units to win @ $100 (betfair)
Like Scott, its putting that has been Couples downfall in recent years. Has good figures for this event and other than the last two years this event has been won by solid experienced professionals with major experience.

JP Hayes, 0.25 units to win @ $400 (betfair)
Big price for a guy who has made the top 25 in 5 of 7 tournalments this year. On fire with the flat stick, hits the ball reasonably straight and is experienced enough to cope with the pressure here. Could be a good trade.

Top 25
JP Hayes, 1.5 units @ $6.00 (Sportsbet)
As per above

Jarrod Lyle, 1 unit @ $6.00 (Sportsbet)
Exceptionally straight driver which will be advantageous on a course with penal rough. Grew up playing the tough Victorian sandbelt courses and has some nice touch around the greens too. Could surprise here.

No collects. JP Hayes was looking the goods for a minimum top 25 finish after the first 2 rounds being 1 shot off the lead but crumbled badly. Jarrad Lyle made the cut but never looked likely and though Watney was thereabouts was always too far back.

Adam Scott and Fred Couples go back inside after getting a day release for this tournalment.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Golf - Zurich Classic

KJ Choi, 2 units to win @ $14 (Luxbet)
Ticks all the boxes here. GIR master, great scrambler, solid putter. With Poulter and Stricker out, Choi is the clear best player in the field. Faded away last week after a great Masters effort but that was expected as Masters contenders just never seem to back up the week after. That he led after Rd 1 anyway is testament to his mental strength. A clear top rater here.

The following are all 1 unit to finish top 25

Graeme De Leat, $4 (Sportsbet)
Good scrambler in fairly good touch of late.

JJ Henry, $4 (Sportsbet)
Back in form last week and course suits once again. Has a great temperament which could be vital on this windy course.

Spencer Levin, $4.50 (Sportsbet)
Solid figures across all the key indicators for this course.

Tom Pernice Jr, $5.00 (Sportsbet)
Grew up in the wind at Kansas so conditions should suit. Playing well on the Champions Tour, very consistent and a decent putter.

Well, no joy here.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Races 17th April

Caulfield r2 n2 Broken, 3 units to win
Looks a class above these and if fit will win.

Unplaced @ $2.50. Simply did not come up fresh

Friday, April 16, 2010

AFL Rd 4

Essendon 2 units to win v WCE @ $2.50 (Sportingbet)
Quite frankly a ridiculous price the Bombers up against a side that hasn't won all year. The Eagles form line is terrible losing to both Port and Nth convincingly. Really struggling with no forwards and their midfield further weakened by the loss of Swift and Shuey who are basically the only ones that can hit a target these days. As noted pre season I had the Eagles as an over-rated side and Essendon as an under-rated side. Hurley back for the Dons is a huge inclusion and I think you'll see a real finals contender tonight. In fact I'd even be tempted to take the -15.5.....

Insipid performance from Essendon.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Golf - Verizon Heritage

Jim Furyk - 1 unit to win @ 16.5 (Betfair)
Great record here and course suits his accurate hitting and good short game. Forget his Masters result. The course was simply too long

Luke Donald - 0.5 units to win @ 34 (Betfair)
Excellent scrambler and his GIR statistics suit this course with its small greens. Has been playing well of late and is due to break through soon.

Jason Bohn - 0.5 units to win @ 60 (Betfair)
Two top 20's in his last 2 events and his good all round game will be advantageous here.

To finish top 25 - all 1 unit

Chris Di Marco @ 5.00 (Centrebet)
Gradually getting back to form albeit slowly but surely.
Graeme Deleat @ 4.00 (Centrebet)
Two top 25's from last 2 starts and leads the tours scrambling statistics.
JJ Henry @ 5.00 (Centrebet)
Hits plenty of greens in reg and although his putting is ordinary the small greens may not hurt him as much in that regard.
Glen Day @ 9.00 (Sportsbet)
Above average GIR and driving accuracy stats. Currently on the Nationwide Tour where his form has been just so so but gets a start here and will be hungry on a course that suits.

Great result with Furyk winning in a playoff and JJ Henry making the top 25. As a sidenote all 4 players picked for top 25 made the cut and Luke Donald finished 3rd overall.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Races 11th April

Flemington r4 n8 Johanski, 1.5 units to win.
I'm back for another bite of the cherry here. Beaten a nose last time when we were on and reading the stewards report afterwards makes you realise how unlucky she was. Is the cllass of the field, long Flemington straight suits and gets the benefir of a clam for Brent Evans. Happy to back again and hopefully get our money back.

3rd @ $4.00
Heavily backed and just could not get there.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Races 7th April 2010

Murray Bridge r1 n2 Fast Eddie, 1 unit to win
Freshened up for this and drops significantly in class as well as distance here. Poor strike rate otherwise would be more confident but with the claim gets in well against some moderate types here.

3rd @ $3.50
Poor strike rate continues

Monday, April 5, 2010

Races 5th April

Moonee Valley r2 n3 Paint It Black, 1.5 units to win
Not much luck last time, in gun stable and rates well for this.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

A question for blog readers....

Regular readers would know that I am fairly consistent with my Saturday selections. Today I had 3 selections which all won but for reasons which I couldn't avoid (children) I was unable to post them.

They were :Zantelagh : 1 unit win, Defintely Ready 5 units win & Tierquala (E/Farm) 2 units to win. All won (of course).

Do I count these in my P & L or are they not included. I know one of my readers can vouch that I verbally tipped them to him earlier in the day.

Any feedback would be great.