Thursday, June 24, 2010

Golf - Travellers Championship

Back on track after last weeks heroics from Russel Henley. If only he could have finished outright leading amateur as well instead of tying but you can't have it all.

Corey Pavin to win @ 240 (betfair) - 0.5 units
Didn't play last week so should be fresh for this. Hitting it great in his appearances on the regular tour and his GIR rating is impressive. A low number is going to be needed to win here and as such a good short game is needed which Pavin has in spades. Terrific value here.

Corey Pavin to finish top 25 @ $4.50 (sportsbet) - 1.5 units
As above.

The top Australian market is very competitive this week and have found three players at reasonable odds.
Greg Chalmers - 1 unit @ $13 (sportsbet)
Close to the form Aussie on tour and has got his short game back.
James Nitties - 1 unit @ $26 (sportingbet)
Fresh for this and is slowly getting back to his best. $26 is a huge price considering some of the flaky opposition he is up against..
Steve Elkington - 1 unit @ $19 (sportsbet)
Can shoot low numbers when on song and form pretty good of late. Experience could be a factor around here.

*****Pavin Update******
Now in a playoff - have just laid him to win 16 units @ $3.30 (betfair)

Poor Corey just wasn't up to the other two on the first playoff hole. Why he chose a 3 wood off the tee especially when he is so accurate with the driver is a mystery. But, still can't complain after collecting on the bet back and the top 25.

The 3 Aussies were all thereabouts at the 1/2 way mark but slipped off the pace towards the end.

Great to see my ratings really paying dividends on the golf lately. I do a fair bit of research from week to week and it does get frustrating when it goes unrewarded. However its one sport that you need a lot of patience with as you can go weeks and months without a payout but then 1 or 2 collects can set you up for the year.

The POT % is again at a dangerous high water mark. I'm pretty sure that 30% is unsustainable so am bracing myself for a bad run in the not too distant future. Lets hope it stays away for a little while yet !!!!!



Thursday, June 17, 2010

Golf - US Open

Looks extremely tough so staying out of the win only market until the weekend.

However there is one interesting player that popped up high in my ratings. Russell Henley.
Yes, I had never heard of him either.
21yo amateur who won his qualifying by 5 shots. Big hitter and good putter by the looks of things. Is the 3rd ranked amateur in the US.
Currently $26 to finish top 25 at Sportsbet which is pretty good value as this event can throw up surprises.

Also am having something very small on Duval. He is out of form (again) but saves his best for Pebble Beach and the US Open.

Bets
R Henley - 1 unit @ $26.00 to finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
R Henley - 1.5 units @ $11.00 to be leading amateur (Sportsbet)
D Duval - 1 unit @ $8.00 to finish top 25 (Sportsbet)
D Duval - 0.25 unit to win @ $250 (betfair)

Great result with Henley finishing T14 and tied as leading amateur. Duval made the cut and he seems to fire on the very difficult courses. Watch for him in the upcoming majors.