Thursday, July 29, 2010

Golf - Greenbrier Classic

Although this is being played on a new course there is enough information out there to suggest that this is an old style course where a premium is placed on putting. Also think being a good wedge player will be key as many of the par 4's are around the 400 yard mark.

Brendan de Jonge - 1 unit to win @ $44 (betfair)
One of the hottest players on tour with 4 top 20s from his last 6 outings and not a cut missed. Excellent putter and wedge player. Leads the tour in total birdies and I've got a feeling they will go low here depite it being a par 70 with little rain and a soft course predicted. Doesn't win out of turn but is knocking on the door.

Carl Pettersen - 0.75 units to win @$42 (betfair)
Bit unusual to see a back to back winner but Pettersen was quite impressive last week and he has claims to be currently the best putter on tour. By all reports this course is similar to last week so no reason why he can't score well again.

Ben Curtis - 0.5 units to win @ $75 (betfair)
Before his MC at the British Open, his form was quite good with a T14 at the US Open just on 3 starts ago. Even the British Open performance wasn't too bad as he had a couple of horror holes and still ended up just missing the cut. Admittedly is not the best putter in the world but this field is light on for experienced, in form players and he could be the one that shows up this week.. And yes I realise he is only 33 but he seems to have been around for ever....

Brendan de Jonge - 2 units to finish top 25 @ $2.50 (Centrebet)
As above.

One more
John Daly - 0.5 units to win @ $200 (betfair)
Just got a tweet from him that he had been granted an exemption to play. Earlier tweets had him raving about the course and he seems to be in a good frame of mind. No doubt the ability is still there as he performed reasonably in the British Open. Needs to get a decent paycheck and is hungry.

Small collect on De Jonge top 25 resulted in a minor profir for the tournalment.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Races 24th July

Moonee Valley r3 n1 Rue Maple, 1.5 units to win
Gets the gun run and races well here. Well off at the weights and looks hard to beat.
1st @ $1.95 (Luxbet BOB). Got to the front and did enough to win.

Moonee Valley r7 n6 Crabs, 1.5 units to win
Weighted to win this race. Didn't have the best of luck last time and is another who goes well this track.
Unplaced @ $4.50. Terrible run and something had to have been amiss.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

British Open Wrap Up

Kaymer looked the goods and his T7 position is actually worse than it looked as he managed to bogey each of the last 3 holes of the tournalment. Ross Fisher showed some form and except for a couple of horror holes could and should have finished much closer. Was happy with the way I traded in the end. As stated before, hate trading when the margin is less than 10% as a rule but this was special circumstances with the leader being so far in front.

Adam Scott managed to tie for top Aussie whilst both my top 25 selections were never a hope and missed the cut. Always disappointing when a top 25 selection misses the cut and really should do better than that.

One thing I have learnt is that St Andrews is now a big hitters paradise.

Here is my top 20 in terms of distance according to my data pre tournalment and their respective finishing positions :

T14 : JB Holmes
MC : Bubba Watson
MC : Kurt Barnes
T14 : Dustin Johnson
T48 : John Daly
MC : Angel Cabrera
T11 : Alvaro Quiros
MC : Ewan Porter
T3 : Rory Mcilroy
MC : Martin Laird
T3 : Paul Casey
MC : Phillip Archer
T11 : Jeff Overton
T7 : Martin Kaymer
MC : Davis Love
T23 : Tiger Woods
2nd : Lee Westwood
MC : Gonzalo Fernando-Castano
MC : Shunsuke Sonada
1st : Louis Oosthuizen

Now whilst there is a few MC's in there, its worth noting that if you backed all the long drivers you would have filled 4 of the first 5 finishes - and really Kaymer should have been there too except for his blow ups in the last 3 holes.

Anyway, something to keep in mind for 5 years time.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

British Open dilemna

Well, Kaymer is currently 3rd but 8 shots back. To be honest I think its going to be hard for him especially as the player in 2nd place is Paul Casey who I respect immensely.

I could lay some money off now on Betfair at the $16.50. However on general principle I hate trading when the margin is less than 10% (in this case it will be only 4%).

Bit unsure what to do here. I've also got Adam Scott leading the top aussie at the moment but if he misses out and Kaymer gets beaten then the whole tournalment is a wipe out for me when in reality, the picks have been reasonably solid.

Any thoughts out there in interweb land ?

Have laid 1 unit Kaymer @ $17 (matched) and have laid 3 units (unmatched) @ $6.00.

Not entirely convinced this is the right way to go but at least if Scott finishes top Aussie I still walk away with a small profit.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

AFL July 17th

St Kilda 5units to win @ $1.74 (Flem Sports Bet) v Collingwood

Although I'm not a big fan of St Kilda and the way they play think they will be very hard to beat today. Saints get back Kosi and Goddard plus with Riewoldt having a game under his belt automatically look stronger. Collingwood have lost Travis Cloke to injury and he is vital to their forward line structure. Pies traditionally struggle to kick goals against the Saints and Cloke's absense won't help them one bit.
St Kilda have good recent record against Collingwood and think it will continue today. $1.74 is a good price in my opinion and worthy of a decent bet.

Never, ever looked likely. Its weird. My record on AFL on this blog is worse than pitiful but when I do have a bet without posting here they invariably win - for instance I did back the Swans on Sunday @ $2.50 but didn't put it up on the blog.

Anyway I've got to stick with what I post. Maybe readers might want to consider my AFL selections as a definite curse and get on the other side asap in future.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Golf - The Open Championship

Martin Kaymer - 2 units to win @ $48 (betfair)
Hitting form at the right time. Has a great temperament which will be needed on the first 2 days with rain predicted. Good record at St Andrews when he first started out and plays the links courses well. Too good a player not to be competitive in a major and this might be his best chance. Is a clear top rater on my rankings with good overall figures especially with driving distance and putting.

Ross Fisher - 0.5 units to win @ $55 (betfair)
Ranks solidly across all the key categories. Very competitive last year (final round leader) before blowing up early in the final round. Two top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts including an 8th placed finish last week at the Scottish Open, the same finishing position he coincidentally finished last year.

Adam Scott - 1 unit Top Aussie @ $5.1 (betfair)
Goes well at St Andrews and on links courses. As always putting is the key with Adam but with not many Aussies in form and with his ball striking I expect him to do well this time around.

Kurt Barnes - 0.5 units Top Aussie @ $55 (betfair)
Very speculative but is a huge hitter and that length could be advantageous on days 1 & 2. Can handle these greens as has been a good performer at Huntingdale and the Oz Open in the past.

Kurt Barnes - 0.75 units top 25 @ $23 (sportsbet)
As above

Loren Roberts - 1 unit top 25 @ $17 (centrebet)
Being a good putter is a huge advantage at St Andrews and the 'boss of the moss' is one of the best in the world. Coming off a 3rd, a win and a 5th on the seniors tour so is in form. Has won a senior Brittish Open so these types of courses don't bother him. Big odds for a top 25 finish in my opinion.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Golf - John Deere Classic

They tend to go low here and with a lot of the good players in Europe tuning up for the Brittish Open, I would not be surprised to see a few shocks.

KJ Choi - 0.5 units @ $21 (betfair).
Very accurate and one of the better players in the field. Pretty short but you would think he'd be thereabouts.

Kevin Sutherland - 0.5 units @ $85 (betfair)
Another straight hitter but also an excellent scrambler which is needed around this course. Form has been pretty good lately except for last weeks abberation which I'm prepared to forgive as don't think the course really suited him.

Joe Durant - 0.5 units @ $260 (betfair)
Another who failed last week. However seems to save his best for courses where low numbers are needed. Accurate hitter and whilst his par 5 stats for the year look ordinary (and last week make them look worse), the last 5 weeks or so prior have been quite good. Think you will need to tear the par 5's up here.

Steve Elkington - 0.5 units @ $140 (betfair)
Sticking with him from last week. Made 5 cuts fom the last 6 and if he can throw out the one bad round per tournalment that seems to plague him, may break through again soon. Rates highly for scrambling.

Top 25
Joe Durant - 1.5 units @ $5.50 (sportsbet)
As above

Graeme De Laet - 1.5 units @ $6.00 (sportsbet)
Had a bad run of it for about a month there but last 2 weeks have been better. Can shoot a low number and is one of the longest drivers on tour. If he can monster the par 5's then he will be right in contention.

Never a hope here with both the top 25 selections missing the cut and the tournalment basically dominated from start to finish by Steve Stricker.

Looking forward to the Brittish Open this week. Should be a wide open field with heavy rain forecast the first two days.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

AFL Rd 15

Port Adelaide +39.5 @ $1.91 v Fremantle (Centrebet) - 2 units

Port are skunks. I'm the first to admit that. However they have a decent record in the West and first up after the break may catch Fremantle napping. 39.5 points start is just too big for mine.

Port Adelaide really are shitful.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Golf - Open de France

Staying away from the US PGA this week as it is being played on a new course and could be unpredictable with a lot of competitors tuning up for the Brittish Open.

Peter Whiteford to win, 1 unit @ 350s (betfair)
Two top 20 s in his last two appearances in Europe. Has good figures for this as he is one of the better putters on tour and also rates high on the GIR scale. 350 is a massive price and outsiders do have a good record in this tournalment.

Ignacio Garrido to win, 0.5 units @ 190 (betfair)
Consistent accurate hitter. Bit of a non winner but hardly ever misses a cut and rates a show here.

Robert Rock to win, 0.5 units @ 130 (betfair)
In career best form. Three top 5 five finishes from his last 3 appearances. One of the Tours best putters. Although this field looks stronger, it could be deceptive as a lot of the world class players are actually not in the best of form.

Peter Whiteford to finish top 25, 1.5 units @ 6.00 (sporstbet)
As above

Also, bear in mind that hitting off early seems to be an advantage around here. Whiteford has a late afternoon tee time first round so take that as you will.

All three players made the cut which was something but all failed to finish in the money for me. Whiteford got off to a good start but blew up in the final round especially.