Sunday, May 29, 2011

Golf - Byron Nelson Rd 3

Market after rd 3.

$3.40 S Garcia
$6.00 R Palmer
$8.00 G Woodland
$10 M Kuchar
$16 N Watney
$21 D Johnston, V Singh
$26 A Atwal
$31 J Rollins, R Imada
$34 J Overton, B Wetterich

Garcia, Singh and Wetterich are all good results whilst Woodland will be a huge result having backed him pre.

Course is apparantly going to play even tougher tomorrow with strong winds expected once again and the pins in final day positions. Woodland really appeals from this position. Big hitters will be advantaged given the conditions and being mentally tough will also be an asset.

On another note, its great to see a course on the US tour actually playing tough. Makes for great viewing and an interesting leader board.

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Golf - Byron Nelson Rd 2

My markets after Rd 2

$2.05 S Garcia
$7.00 R Palmer
$9.00 N Watney
$17.00 T Petrovic
$21.00 J Teater, K Bradley
$34.00 R Imada, C Riley
$41.00 S Piercey

Really keen on Garcia from here. He was my top pick pre tournament and is tracking nicely for this. Competition behind him isn't much, he needs to win and course is turning out not to be a putting event.

Get long at the $2.80.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Golf - Byron Nelson

Want to be on the big hitters and the two I'll be on initially are Gary Woodland and Robert Garrigus..

Also think Sergio is not completely out of it here too as he needs a good performance to qualify for the British Open. His game has been very good this year withh only his putting letting him down. However he may be able to get away with not putting so well here this week.

Will have more in depth market updates after the completion of each round.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Golf - PLayers Championship Pre Rd 3

Market after completion of Rd 2

$4.50 D Toms
$6.00 N Watney
$9.00 L Donald
$14 S Stricker
$16 G McDowell, H Mahan
$21 L Glover
$31 A Baddeley
$34 JB Holmes
$41 KJ Ckoi, M Kaymer

Blogger was down last night so couldn't add in markets post Rd 1. However took positions on Toms, Watney & Kaymer.

Am continuing to get long Toms & Watney here.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Golf - Players Championship

My market pre tournament.

$22 - F Molinari
$24 - T Clark
$29 - M Kaymer
$32 - H Mahan, J Furyk, L Donald
$33 - T Woods, B Crane
$34 - N Watney, R Allenby
$39 - P Mickelson, M Kuchar, D Toms
$40 - S Garcia
$42 - R Fowler
$45 - B Watson, P Harrington
$47 - C Shwartzel, A Scott, I Poulter
$50 - S Stricker, S Verplank

Have had minor bets on Molinari & Clark @ $85 and $160 respectively to win. However the major bets have been in the T25 market with Clark an astounding (to me anyway) $5.50 at Sportsbet. I made sure I got a piece of that. The best I could get for Molinari was $3.25.

Good luck all.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Wells Fargo - 4th Round

My market after 3rd round

$2.70 J Byrd
$4.80 P Perez
$8.00 S Cink, L Glover
$21 B Haas
$24 K Na, A Romero, B Davis

No real overs there so am going to leave it alone for the moment. Have got Perez and Glover going for okay results and even if they fail the B Davis top 25 bet pre covers me nicely.

Wrap Up:
Have been blessed with playoffs this year with Byrd, Woodland & now Glover all winning and giving me an optimal result.

Turned out to be a good event for me with Brian Davis easily filling a top 25 finish at the nice odds of $6.00.

The T25 bets are really worth their weight in gold.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Wells Fargo 3rd Round

My market after 2nd round. Value runners in green.

$4.40 P Perez
$7.00 B Haas, P Mickelson
$8.50 J Byrd
$10 L Glover
$16 S Cink
$21 C Petterson, W Simpson, V Singh
$24 B Davis
$34 S Marino
Rest $41 or better

Of the players in contention, have long positions on the above highlighted players plus Senden & Toms.

By the way, am very sad to hear of the passing of Seve. He was one of my heroes as a kid and I'll always remember that confident stride down the fairway. I can only imagine how huge he was in Spain.

RIP Champion.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Wells Fargo 2nd Round

As I mentioned before, am trying something a little bit different with the blog - especially the golf betting.

Here's my market after Rd 2. Note these are based on my pre tournament rankings and then adjusted after scores each round.

$6.50 : D Toms
$8 : B Haas
$13 : R Fowler
$15 : L Glover
$18 : J Byrd, S Garcia, P Perez, P Mickelson
$21 : R Moore
$24 : C Petterson, V Singh, P Harrington
$27 ; S Appleby

Rest $31 or better

Toms is still significant overs at the moment so haven taken another long position him after Rd 1. I could entertain thoughts of backing Glover, Garcia & Petterson but personally they're just not offering enough value for me at the moment.

Phil seems unders @ $6.20 and is definitely layable given the stage of the tournament.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Golf - Wells Fargo

They've just teed off so excuse me for my lateness.

Am going to do things a bit differently with this blog for the time being as I am finding myself getting a bit stale.

Win bets Pre Tournament
Small bets on Toms, Senden & Hoffman all of whom I think are over the odds

Top 25 bet
Brian Davis

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Golf - Heritage

Ratings had this event pretty bunched up so hard to really pick anyone with any real confidence in any market.

Ben Crane, 1 unit to win @ $48 (betfair)
Rated on top as his accurate game suits. Not one of my favourites but is very accurate, has a winning pedigree and a good temperement.

Francisco Molinari, 1 unit to win @ $38 (betfair)
Big unknown here is that he has not played this course before. Went okay at the Masters and except for one double bogey on 12 would have made the cut. Leads the GIR statistics on the Euro Tour and with the depth now there that is not something to be sneezed at. Has plenty of ability and is very capable of taking a US tour event out.

Will be betting on this event after every round and will keep you posted.

Round 1 Update :
Have backed Chad Campbell @ $26 and something small on both Simpson & Weekley @ $100.

Round 2 Update
Backed Luke Donald at $3.10 for a small overall loss . Crane is a good winner whilst Chad is not a bad result either.

Round 3 Update
Have backed up again on Donald @ $2.68. Frankly I've got him down as an odds on chance from this position. This is the first time Furyk has contested all year and I'm not 100% convinced that he is anywhere near what he was a few years ago.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

AFL Footy Quad Rd 4

Dividend last week was unbelievable paying 20K when the all up only paid 9K.

This week is a bit tricky as the last leg is not a stand alone game making it almost impossible to do any business if you are alive.

Therefore am going to take a few risks early on here.

Ess 24-72+
Are in superior form and have belted sides at a similar level to Carlton in SK and the Bulldogs. Slight doubt on the 6 day break but other than that they should win.

Haw 1-36, WCE 1-12
Stratton out is a big loss for Hawthorn and they do struggle against sides with good rucks and WCE have probably the best duo in the comp with Cox and Naitanui. Margins aren't often big in Tasmania.

Geel 1-24, Syd 1-24
Wet day in Sydney and this should be grinding affair. Can't pick the winner here to be honest.

Port 1-36, Adel 1-12
The Crows were terrible last week and have big injury concerns. Port are going to be fired up for this and I just don't think they are as bad as everyone makes them out to be.

Quaddie for 15.6%

Saturday, April 9, 2011

AFL Footy Quad Rd 3

Thought I'd start posting on this bet type as I think its one of the best value mediums going around with plenty of pickle money in there inflating the pool.

Adel 1-12, 13-24, 25-36 & Freo 1-12, 13-24
Hawthorn 1-12, 13-24, 25-36
WCE 1-12, 13-24 & Sydney 1-12, 13-24
Essendon 1-12, 13-24, 25-36, SK 1-12

Normally I would think Adelaide would be good things however they are coming off a byr with 4 enforced changes (injuries) which does put some doubt on them. Fremantle are a good side and a win would not surprise.

Weather is predicted to be windy and rainy tonight and this could make scoring difficult at the MCG so Hawthorn only 1-36

WCE and Sydney are traditionally very tight battles and can't really pick the winner there.

Essendon look to be good things however SK have copped plenty of heat during the week and with Riewoldt's 200th game they could lift. If am still alive last leg, there is an opportunity to bet back with the advent of the pick your own line bet type.

Percentage 25%.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Golf - US Masters

Nick Watney - 2.6 units to win @ $19 (Sportingbet) Martin Laird - 1.6 units Top UK and Irish @ $14 (Luxbet) Watney pretty pronounced as clear top rater. Super putter, hits it long, been in good form this year. Temperament down the final stretch the only query but he has to break through for a major one day. Laird is a first timer at the Masters and the common thought is you need experience at Augusta to do well, but its not always 100% true. Adam Scott for example had his best performance in a Masters at his first attempt as did guys like Kim, Barnes & Haas - they don't often win but they can perform well. Woods rates well but I just can't have him - too many putting issues for mine and whilst it hasn't been that bad this year, when he gets on the really fast greens he gets found out - like he did at the Oz Masters earlier this year. Cabrera worth an investment at largish odds - proven major performer. Could very well shoot 80, 80 as can be a bit on the inconsistent side. I'd be backing him win only and not even bothering with top 5, top 10 etc. Also no harm in a traduing bet on Quiros @ 170s (betfair). Capable of ripping apart any course on his day.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Golf - Arnold Palmer Invitational

Firstly my apologies for regular readers of this blog who sometimes follow my selections (probably not many, if any LOL).

Gary Woodland was actually my top pick last week and to crown it off I also had John Senden as top Aussie as my other selection. Have been really pressed for time lately so only tweeted those selections instead of posting here. I won't include in my P&L but the 120s Mr Woodland was very, very nice indeed. Thats two winners at $70 plus for the year so am very satisfied that the work I put into my golf bets is getting rewarded.

Enough of the navel gazing and onto this week. Course has been really toughened up in recent times with the rough lengthened and 2 par 5's stripped back to par 4's. Looking for US Open type players as hitting it wildly off the tee is not the profile of a winner here.

Graeme McDowell - 1.3 units to win @ $21 (betfair)
Carrying on his top form from last year with 3 top 10 finishes from his only 4 starts on the US tour. Gets to a course that suits his accurate hitting and its only a matter of time before he breaks through on the main tour again.

Sergio Garcia - 1.3 units to win @ $60 (betfair)
First to agree that you wouldn't want him to hole a 6 footer to save your life at the moment but the facts are Sergio has been playing very well the past month. Started off in terrific form last week before struggling over the weekend. His accurate ball striking will suit and IMO there is less focus on putting here than there is on other courses. Also plays well in Florida.

Chris Couch - 0.6 units to win @ $60 (betfair)
3 top 10s from 5 starts and finished T4 here last year. Is a non-winner but is playing in the form of his life with his putting the most prominent feature. Like last week, sometimes pays to stick with the in-form player.

Matt Every - 1.3 units T25 @ $6.00 (Centrebet)
Only making his 3rd start on main tour this year after getting a 5 start injury excemption for 2011. Coming off a last start 2nd on Nationwide tour, hits the ball very long and is reasonably accurate off the tee. Also a Florida native meaning he should be familiar with the grasses (pun intended). Does have a top 30 performance in his only US Open start.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Golf - WGC Cadillac

Padraig Harrington - 1.6 units to win @ $85
Seemingly out of form but I'm banking on him getting back to his best on what seems to be one of his favourite US courses. Last 3 apppearances here have yielded a T3, T20 and a T19. Has good solid figures for Doral rating well in all the key categories that are needed. The $85 seems to good value for a player of his pedigree.

K J Choi - 1 unit to win @ $120 (betfair)
Started the season slow but is beginning to get back to his best with a T7 at the Northern Open and a 2nd round loss in the Matchplay to Ryan Moore. Plays well in Florida and this course's premium on accurate ball striking suits Choi. Has a good record at this course and this season has thrown up some long priced winners.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Golf - Honda Classic

Short but sweet this week.

Graeme McDowell 1.6 units to win @ $16.5 (betfair)
Course should suit with its emphasis on ball striking and putting. Now one of the best players in the world and is generally very consistent.

Charl Schwartzel 1.6 units to win @ $50 (betfair)
Bound to break through on the US Tour soon and this could be the course to do it on. Very similar to some of the Sth African courses he does so well on. In good form and putting very well. Giood price for a very good player.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Golf - WGC Accenture Match Play

Tiger Woods to win, 2 units @ $15 (Sportsbet)

Think this is the tournament Tiger finally breaks his drought. Plays well in this format and his main issue (shortish putts) are not as important in match-play as they are in regular stroke play. My personal belief is that the rest of his game is the same as it always was (he has always sprayed it on occasions, it was just his putting that saved him) but I've had a few arguments with people over that so could be wrong.

Not only that, we get the best price for Tiger in probably a decade. $15 is enormous value for a player of his ability. He gets an easy kill in the first round oplaying Thomas Bjorn which should give him confidence for the subsequent next few rounds.

Martin Laird, 3 units to beat Eduardo Molinari @ $1.96 (betfair)
I know Molinari goes all right in this format but Laird is playing great at the moment. Terrific value.

Jeff Overton, 2 units to beat Ernie Els @ $2.24 (betfair).
Overton played great in the Ryder Cup and is a real up and comer. Els's form isn't too bad but he doesn't seem to like match-play and his best is seemingly behind him.

Charl, Rory, Quiros, Casey - multi to win 1st round - 1.3 units @ $5.76 (Luxbet)
Thought these 4 were the good things (Tiger excepted) for rd 1

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Golf - Northern Trust Open

Extremely difficult event to rate this week so have plumped for one at very good value even though there are some doubts on him.

Robert Karlsson, 1 unit to win @ $60 (betfair)
Just thought the price was too big for a guy who is ranked 15 in the world and on a course which should suit him. Karlsson is a very good accurate ball striker with a decent short game. The US Tour shouldn't hold any fears for him as he played here 11 times last year for 5 top 25s (10 cuts made) including a playoff loss in the St Jude Classic.

Of course the query here is Riviera and especially how Karlsson handles the kikuyu grass. However the players ranked above him all have some queries and a small bet at the 60s won't hurt.

The matchplay is coming up next week so probably best to save our bank for then anyway.

My rankings in order were Donald, Howell, Clark, Kuchar, Stricker & Karlsson. Note Phil M is not amongst that group so if you are the laying type might be worth getting some money out of him.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Golf - AT & T Pebble

By all reports, pebble Beach has been set up to US Open standard this week with the greens extremely firm and fast. As such we need to look for longish hitters (they will be hitting shorter clubs in, therefore they have more chance of holding the greens) who are good putters and have previous good form in Open type conditions.

Generally, I don't like taking the favorites but Dustin Johnson is a real stand out this week. In fact, since I started doing my own golf ratings, he has been the clearest top pick that I can remember.

Dustin Johnson - 2 units to win @ $8.25 (Flem SportsBet)
Just meets all the criteria. Hits the ball a mile, plays well here, likes links courses and form this year has been solid. This field is also not that strong in my opinion.

David Duval - 1 unit to win @ $91 (sportsbet)
Now this is an interesting one. I had been keen on him for this tournament for a while. Went to Betfair this morning only to find he is now trading at $60 !!!!
The market is at 108 so the price should not move that much on that percentage. This compares to the $81-$91 available with most of the other corporates
Someone has been having a sneaky go on Mr Duval it seems.

Anyway, this is probably Duvals favorite course on the circuit. Last year finished T2 in this event and 70th in the US Open but bear in mind that 70th was with an 80 in the final round. He was in reasonable contention before that.
When he was at his peak he excelled at this course with a number of 2nd's. This year he has two T25 finishes from 3 starts. He is slowly getting back to his best. He would probably be a decent T25 bet but the $3.75 is just a bit too short in my opinion.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Golf - Phoenix Open

The Phoenix Open is an interesting tournament where its emphasis on accuracy off the tee, can bring the wilder hitters back to the field. However if you can hit it long and straight, then you are at a real advantage as like most US courses these days you must be able to hit it a distance.

Very difficult to get some good selections as most of them have been priced in by the market so have opted for only one selection this week.

David Toms, 1 unit to win @ $120 (betfair) and 2 units to finish T25 @ $3.50 (sportsbet)
Toms has a great record here with his last 6 appearances here yielding MC, T4, MC, T8, 19 & T4. In other words if he makes the cut he is generally well up the leaderboard. He comes into this event in good form having only played once this year at the Bob Hope Classic. Two poor opening rounds were followed by 66,66 & 68.

Toms is generally very accurate off the tee and although not long in the JB Holmes sense, is not one of the shorter hitters either.

Appeals to me as the best value bet for this event.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Golf - Farmers Insurance Open

A lot of interest in how Tiger comes back this year and whilst I think his tee to green issues are almost fixed, its his putting that remains the big question mark. Until such time as I am completely satisfied that his touch has returned will be staying away from him.

This field is weaker than normal with all the top players preferring to remain in the desert. In fact as mentioned on my twitter last week, am strongly considering switching permanently to the Euro tour as the players at the top end are better and the courses have more nuances to them making it easier to find players who are suited.

Win
Bill Haas 1.3 units @ $40 (betfair)
Almost the form American player of the last 6-12 months and has commenced 2011 strongly with two top 10 from his two starts. Considering he has only really taken off the last year or so his record at Torrey Pines long term is good. 4 top 30s from last 6 appearances here (highest T11 last year) with only one missed cut. Has an accurate and long game which will suit here. Big odds for a player in the form he is.

Charles Howell III 0.7 units @ $34 (betfair)
Getting back to his best and this courses premium on accuracy and GIR definitely suits him. Last 6 appearances here have yielded T9, T42, T13, 2nd, T39 and 2nd so obviously loves it here. Not someone you would want to be having your last on but in this weaker field must be rated a big hope.

Top 25
Kevin Sutherland 2 units @ $4.00 (centrebet)
Ultra consistent, straight hitter who usually plays his best golf early in the season. Being from California is used to these greens and his record at Torrey Pines is good with 4 top 20s in his last six appearances here. Probably should have finished closer last week but for a last round 71 so current form is acceptable.

Update Rd2 : Well everything is going well so far. Laid Haas during 16th hole today @ $4.00 to return 3 units (lose 9). Sutherland progressing well for the T25 market but lets hope Haas kicks on tomorrow and we can do some more business at $2 or less.

****************
Bit disappointed that Haas didn't give us more of a show in the last round but can't complain about a profitable tournament. Sutherland was his usual Mr Consistency finishing T17.

Result of +1 unit on the win bets and +6 units on T25 meaning overall result of +7 units

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Races 22/1/11

Finally able to bet in Melbourne after what has seemed like months of wet tracks, then dry tracks and then wet tracks.

Impossible to line up form when the weather has been like it has.

Anyway best value selections for the day.

Flem : r3 n8 Assertion
Flem : r5 n5 Fordee
Flem : r7 n10 Cascabel

Best lays

Flem : r4 n8 Cabeza
Flem : r6 n3 Cardinal Virtue

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Golf - Sony Open

Very difficult this week with a lot of players first up. Weather is forecast for rain and lots of it so am looking for experienced players with a solid temperament as against the young up and comers who may get frustrated with what looks like being a stop/start and long event.

Not even going to try the Win only market as nothing really jumps out to me as value although if you twisted my arm I would plump for Howell, Stricker & Els in that order.

Top 25
David Duval 1 unit @ $8.00, Sportsbet
Finally some light at the end of the tunnel for David last year as he posted some much improved performances to win his card for this year. Has reasonable figures for this and seems to play well on the Bermuda greens which will be an advantage.

Joe Durant, 1 unit @ $6.00, Sportsbet
Accurate hitter and good putter which will be needed this week. Would never back him to win only but as a top 25er seems pretty good value here

Fred Funk, 1 unit @ $11, Sportsbet
Huge odds for a guy who is a good putter and plays reasonably well in Hawaii. Hasn't missed a cut on the Seniors tour for 4 years, is extremely consistent and very experienced.

Best Australian
Nathan Green, 1 unit @ $21, Sportsbet
Since 2006, has had a 5th, T34, MC, T12 & T8 here. That's a pretty good record in my book. Also plays well in Florida. Its a fairly competitive market but you have to be at the $21 for a guy with that sort of record !!!!

Lays Top 10
Hopefully can get some money out of the younger players who may blow up this week. All to lose 1 unit.

Jason Day @ $4.50
Camilo Villegas @ $6.00
Bo Van Pelt @ $6.00

I have others in the system and will update as they get matched.

Never a hope with any of them although we did collect on all the lays for an overall result of -3 units.




Thursday, January 6, 2011

Golf - Tournament of Champions

First tournament of the year and hopefully we can kick off with a winner. Going to get involved on the lay side in the top 10 finishes this season.

Course is wide open that definitely suits the long hitters. Players from Sth Africa and Australia seem to have some success as they have been playing during December whilst most of the US and Euro players are coming off a 2 month spell. Weather can get nasty in Hawaii but the forecast seems relatively benign. Putting on the big greens is also a big advantage.

Dustin Johnson 2 units to win @ $13 (betfair)
Long hitter who loves these sorts of courses. Has a great record at Pebble Beach plus was in contention at both the Brittish Open & US PGA. To be honest, I hope it does blow a bit as it seems he likes it.

Jonathan Byrd, 1 unit to win @ $70 (betfair)
Three starts here have yielded a 6th, 10th & a 13th. Last year wasn't his greatest but has a lot of ability and is by no means a short hitter.

Adam Scott, 0.8 units to win @ $20 (betfair)
Coming off a good last 3 months and seems to be getting back to his best. Putting is still the big query but IMO is the best of the Southern hemisphere players lining up this week.

Bill Haas, 0.8 units to win @ $50 (betfair)
Just seems over the odds to me for a player who hits the ball long and who is a good putter. Coming off a career best year and $51 is just too big a price.

Top 10 finish Lays
Ben Crane to lose 2 units @ $3.45
Heath Slocum to lose 1 unit @ $6.40
Francisco Molinari to lose 1.5 units @ $2.60
Jim Furyk to lose 1.3 units @ $1.85
Camilo Vilegas to lose 1.2 units @ $3.20

Failed to match : Hunter Mahan

Update : That damm eagle putt by Garrrigus on the last has taken some of the value away from doing some business back on Byrd. Am still trying anyway.

Update 2 : Have laid Byrd @ $3.80 & have greened up on all other runners in the win market for a locked in profit of 3.5 units. Will probably do some in running business @ $2.00 or shorter if I get the chance but happy with position for now.

Update 3 : (Byrd on 7th hole) - Have got another 5 units out of Byrd @ $1.91. Basically on the winner market if Byrd wins, profit = 36.5 units. If he loses, profit will be 8.5 units.
That will do me I think. Can now relax and cheer him home.

Fantastic result to kick 2011 off. Lets hope the rest of the year follows in the same vein.

In the top 10 market, got collects on all except on Furyk who finished tied 10th so it was a reduced dividend. The Villegas bet was voided as Betfair stipulates a player must play at least 54 holes (a rule I was unaware of) but given my luck this week I'm not going to complain. I'm going to persist with this bet type as I reckon it could be a real earner for me.