Thursday, January 27, 2011

Golf - Farmers Insurance Open

A lot of interest in how Tiger comes back this year and whilst I think his tee to green issues are almost fixed, its his putting that remains the big question mark. Until such time as I am completely satisfied that his touch has returned will be staying away from him.

This field is weaker than normal with all the top players preferring to remain in the desert. In fact as mentioned on my twitter last week, am strongly considering switching permanently to the Euro tour as the players at the top end are better and the courses have more nuances to them making it easier to find players who are suited.

Win
Bill Haas 1.3 units @ $40 (betfair)
Almost the form American player of the last 6-12 months and has commenced 2011 strongly with two top 10 from his two starts. Considering he has only really taken off the last year or so his record at Torrey Pines long term is good. 4 top 30s from last 6 appearances here (highest T11 last year) with only one missed cut. Has an accurate and long game which will suit here. Big odds for a player in the form he is.

Charles Howell III 0.7 units @ $34 (betfair)
Getting back to his best and this courses premium on accuracy and GIR definitely suits him. Last 6 appearances here have yielded T9, T42, T13, 2nd, T39 and 2nd so obviously loves it here. Not someone you would want to be having your last on but in this weaker field must be rated a big hope.

Top 25
Kevin Sutherland 2 units @ $4.00 (centrebet)
Ultra consistent, straight hitter who usually plays his best golf early in the season. Being from California is used to these greens and his record at Torrey Pines is good with 4 top 20s in his last six appearances here. Probably should have finished closer last week but for a last round 71 so current form is acceptable.

Update Rd2 : Well everything is going well so far. Laid Haas during 16th hole today @ $4.00 to return 3 units (lose 9). Sutherland progressing well for the T25 market but lets hope Haas kicks on tomorrow and we can do some more business at $2 or less.

****************
Bit disappointed that Haas didn't give us more of a show in the last round but can't complain about a profitable tournament. Sutherland was his usual Mr Consistency finishing T17.

Result of +1 unit on the win bets and +6 units on T25 meaning overall result of +7 units

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Races 22/1/11

Finally able to bet in Melbourne after what has seemed like months of wet tracks, then dry tracks and then wet tracks.

Impossible to line up form when the weather has been like it has.

Anyway best value selections for the day.

Flem : r3 n8 Assertion
Flem : r5 n5 Fordee
Flem : r7 n10 Cascabel

Best lays

Flem : r4 n8 Cabeza
Flem : r6 n3 Cardinal Virtue

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Golf - Sony Open

Very difficult this week with a lot of players first up. Weather is forecast for rain and lots of it so am looking for experienced players with a solid temperament as against the young up and comers who may get frustrated with what looks like being a stop/start and long event.

Not even going to try the Win only market as nothing really jumps out to me as value although if you twisted my arm I would plump for Howell, Stricker & Els in that order.

Top 25
David Duval 1 unit @ $8.00, Sportsbet
Finally some light at the end of the tunnel for David last year as he posted some much improved performances to win his card for this year. Has reasonable figures for this and seems to play well on the Bermuda greens which will be an advantage.

Joe Durant, 1 unit @ $6.00, Sportsbet
Accurate hitter and good putter which will be needed this week. Would never back him to win only but as a top 25er seems pretty good value here

Fred Funk, 1 unit @ $11, Sportsbet
Huge odds for a guy who is a good putter and plays reasonably well in Hawaii. Hasn't missed a cut on the Seniors tour for 4 years, is extremely consistent and very experienced.

Best Australian
Nathan Green, 1 unit @ $21, Sportsbet
Since 2006, has had a 5th, T34, MC, T12 & T8 here. That's a pretty good record in my book. Also plays well in Florida. Its a fairly competitive market but you have to be at the $21 for a guy with that sort of record !!!!

Lays Top 10
Hopefully can get some money out of the younger players who may blow up this week. All to lose 1 unit.

Jason Day @ $4.50
Camilo Villegas @ $6.00
Bo Van Pelt @ $6.00

I have others in the system and will update as they get matched.

Never a hope with any of them although we did collect on all the lays for an overall result of -3 units.




Thursday, January 6, 2011

Golf - Tournament of Champions

First tournament of the year and hopefully we can kick off with a winner. Going to get involved on the lay side in the top 10 finishes this season.

Course is wide open that definitely suits the long hitters. Players from Sth Africa and Australia seem to have some success as they have been playing during December whilst most of the US and Euro players are coming off a 2 month spell. Weather can get nasty in Hawaii but the forecast seems relatively benign. Putting on the big greens is also a big advantage.

Dustin Johnson 2 units to win @ $13 (betfair)
Long hitter who loves these sorts of courses. Has a great record at Pebble Beach plus was in contention at both the Brittish Open & US PGA. To be honest, I hope it does blow a bit as it seems he likes it.

Jonathan Byrd, 1 unit to win @ $70 (betfair)
Three starts here have yielded a 6th, 10th & a 13th. Last year wasn't his greatest but has a lot of ability and is by no means a short hitter.

Adam Scott, 0.8 units to win @ $20 (betfair)
Coming off a good last 3 months and seems to be getting back to his best. Putting is still the big query but IMO is the best of the Southern hemisphere players lining up this week.

Bill Haas, 0.8 units to win @ $50 (betfair)
Just seems over the odds to me for a player who hits the ball long and who is a good putter. Coming off a career best year and $51 is just too big a price.

Top 10 finish Lays
Ben Crane to lose 2 units @ $3.45
Heath Slocum to lose 1 unit @ $6.40
Francisco Molinari to lose 1.5 units @ $2.60
Jim Furyk to lose 1.3 units @ $1.85
Camilo Vilegas to lose 1.2 units @ $3.20

Failed to match : Hunter Mahan

Update : That damm eagle putt by Garrrigus on the last has taken some of the value away from doing some business back on Byrd. Am still trying anyway.

Update 2 : Have laid Byrd @ $3.80 & have greened up on all other runners in the win market for a locked in profit of 3.5 units. Will probably do some in running business @ $2.00 or shorter if I get the chance but happy with position for now.

Update 3 : (Byrd on 7th hole) - Have got another 5 units out of Byrd @ $1.91. Basically on the winner market if Byrd wins, profit = 36.5 units. If he loses, profit will be 8.5 units.
That will do me I think. Can now relax and cheer him home.

Fantastic result to kick 2011 off. Lets hope the rest of the year follows in the same vein.

In the top 10 market, got collects on all except on Furyk who finished tied 10th so it was a reduced dividend. The Villegas bet was voided as Betfair stipulates a player must play at least 54 holes (a rule I was unaware of) but given my luck this week I'm not going to complain. I'm going to persist with this bet type as I reckon it could be a real earner for me.