Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Golf - WGC Accenture Match Play

Tiger Woods to win, 2 units @ $15 (Sportsbet)

Think this is the tournament Tiger finally breaks his drought. Plays well in this format and his main issue (shortish putts) are not as important in match-play as they are in regular stroke play. My personal belief is that the rest of his game is the same as it always was (he has always sprayed it on occasions, it was just his putting that saved him) but I've had a few arguments with people over that so could be wrong.

Not only that, we get the best price for Tiger in probably a decade. $15 is enormous value for a player of his ability. He gets an easy kill in the first round oplaying Thomas Bjorn which should give him confidence for the subsequent next few rounds.

Martin Laird, 3 units to beat Eduardo Molinari @ $1.96 (betfair)
I know Molinari goes all right in this format but Laird is playing great at the moment. Terrific value.

Jeff Overton, 2 units to beat Ernie Els @ $2.24 (betfair).
Overton played great in the Ryder Cup and is a real up and comer. Els's form isn't too bad but he doesn't seem to like match-play and his best is seemingly behind him.

Charl, Rory, Quiros, Casey - multi to win 1st round - 1.3 units @ $5.76 (Luxbet)
Thought these 4 were the good things (Tiger excepted) for rd 1

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Golf - Northern Trust Open

Extremely difficult event to rate this week so have plumped for one at very good value even though there are some doubts on him.

Robert Karlsson, 1 unit to win @ $60 (betfair)
Just thought the price was too big for a guy who is ranked 15 in the world and on a course which should suit him. Karlsson is a very good accurate ball striker with a decent short game. The US Tour shouldn't hold any fears for him as he played here 11 times last year for 5 top 25s (10 cuts made) including a playoff loss in the St Jude Classic.

Of course the query here is Riviera and especially how Karlsson handles the kikuyu grass. However the players ranked above him all have some queries and a small bet at the 60s won't hurt.

The matchplay is coming up next week so probably best to save our bank for then anyway.

My rankings in order were Donald, Howell, Clark, Kuchar, Stricker & Karlsson. Note Phil M is not amongst that group so if you are the laying type might be worth getting some money out of him.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Golf - AT & T Pebble

By all reports, pebble Beach has been set up to US Open standard this week with the greens extremely firm and fast. As such we need to look for longish hitters (they will be hitting shorter clubs in, therefore they have more chance of holding the greens) who are good putters and have previous good form in Open type conditions.

Generally, I don't like taking the favorites but Dustin Johnson is a real stand out this week. In fact, since I started doing my own golf ratings, he has been the clearest top pick that I can remember.

Dustin Johnson - 2 units to win @ $8.25 (Flem SportsBet)
Just meets all the criteria. Hits the ball a mile, plays well here, likes links courses and form this year has been solid. This field is also not that strong in my opinion.

David Duval - 1 unit to win @ $91 (sportsbet)
Now this is an interesting one. I had been keen on him for this tournament for a while. Went to Betfair this morning only to find he is now trading at $60 !!!!
The market is at 108 so the price should not move that much on that percentage. This compares to the $81-$91 available with most of the other corporates
Someone has been having a sneaky go on Mr Duval it seems.

Anyway, this is probably Duvals favorite course on the circuit. Last year finished T2 in this event and 70th in the US Open but bear in mind that 70th was with an 80 in the final round. He was in reasonable contention before that.
When he was at his peak he excelled at this course with a number of 2nd's. This year he has two T25 finishes from 3 starts. He is slowly getting back to his best. He would probably be a decent T25 bet but the $3.75 is just a bit too short in my opinion.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Golf - Phoenix Open

The Phoenix Open is an interesting tournament where its emphasis on accuracy off the tee, can bring the wilder hitters back to the field. However if you can hit it long and straight, then you are at a real advantage as like most US courses these days you must be able to hit it a distance.

Very difficult to get some good selections as most of them have been priced in by the market so have opted for only one selection this week.

David Toms, 1 unit to win @ $120 (betfair) and 2 units to finish T25 @ $3.50 (sportsbet)
Toms has a great record here with his last 6 appearances here yielding MC, T4, MC, T8, 19 & T4. In other words if he makes the cut he is generally well up the leaderboard. He comes into this event in good form having only played once this year at the Bob Hope Classic. Two poor opening rounds were followed by 66,66 & 68.

Toms is generally very accurate off the tee and although not long in the JB Holmes sense, is not one of the shorter hitters either.

Appeals to me as the best value bet for this event.