Golf - AT & T Pebble

By all reports, pebble Beach has been set up to US Open standard this week with the greens extremely firm and fast. As such we need to look for longish hitters (they will be hitting shorter clubs in, therefore they have more chance of holding the greens) who are good putters and have previous good form in Open type conditions.

Generally, I don't like taking the favorites but Dustin Johnson is a real stand out this week. In fact, since I started doing my own golf ratings, he has been the clearest top pick that I can remember.

Dustin Johnson - 2 units to win @ $8.25 (Flem SportsBet)
Just meets all the criteria. Hits the ball a mile, plays well here, likes links courses and form this year has been solid. This field is also not that strong in my opinion.

David Duval - 1 unit to win @ $91 (sportsbet)
Now this is an interesting one. I had been keen on him for this tournament for a while. Went to Betfair this morning only to find he is now trading at $60 !!!!
The market is at 108 so the price should not move that much on that percentage. This compares to the $81-$91 available with most of the other corporates
Someone has been having a sneaky go on Mr Duval it seems.

Anyway, this is probably Duvals favorite course on the circuit. Last year finished T2 in this event and 70th in the US Open but bear in mind that 70th was with an 80 in the final round. He was in reasonable contention before that.
When he was at his peak he excelled at this course with a number of 2nd's. This year he has two T25 finishes from 3 starts. He is slowly getting back to his best. He would probably be a decent T25 bet but the $3.75 is just a bit too short in my opinion.