Thursday, April 21, 2011

Golf - Heritage

Ratings had this event pretty bunched up so hard to really pick anyone with any real confidence in any market.

Ben Crane, 1 unit to win @ $48 (betfair)
Rated on top as his accurate game suits. Not one of my favourites but is very accurate, has a winning pedigree and a good temperement.

Francisco Molinari, 1 unit to win @ $38 (betfair)
Big unknown here is that he has not played this course before. Went okay at the Masters and except for one double bogey on 12 would have made the cut. Leads the GIR statistics on the Euro Tour and with the depth now there that is not something to be sneezed at. Has plenty of ability and is very capable of taking a US tour event out.

Will be betting on this event after every round and will keep you posted.

Round 1 Update :
Have backed Chad Campbell @ $26 and something small on both Simpson & Weekley @ $100.

Round 2 Update
Backed Luke Donald at $3.10 for a small overall loss . Crane is a good winner whilst Chad is not a bad result either.

Round 3 Update
Have backed up again on Donald @ $2.68. Frankly I've got him down as an odds on chance from this position. This is the first time Furyk has contested all year and I'm not 100% convinced that he is anywhere near what he was a few years ago.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

AFL Footy Quad Rd 4

Dividend last week was unbelievable paying 20K when the all up only paid 9K.

This week is a bit tricky as the last leg is not a stand alone game making it almost impossible to do any business if you are alive.

Therefore am going to take a few risks early on here.

Ess 24-72+
Are in superior form and have belted sides at a similar level to Carlton in SK and the Bulldogs. Slight doubt on the 6 day break but other than that they should win.

Haw 1-36, WCE 1-12
Stratton out is a big loss for Hawthorn and they do struggle against sides with good rucks and WCE have probably the best duo in the comp with Cox and Naitanui. Margins aren't often big in Tasmania.

Geel 1-24, Syd 1-24
Wet day in Sydney and this should be grinding affair. Can't pick the winner here to be honest.

Port 1-36, Adel 1-12
The Crows were terrible last week and have big injury concerns. Port are going to be fired up for this and I just don't think they are as bad as everyone makes them out to be.

Quaddie for 15.6%

Saturday, April 9, 2011

AFL Footy Quad Rd 3

Thought I'd start posting on this bet type as I think its one of the best value mediums going around with plenty of pickle money in there inflating the pool.

Adel 1-12, 13-24, 25-36 & Freo 1-12, 13-24
Hawthorn 1-12, 13-24, 25-36
WCE 1-12, 13-24 & Sydney 1-12, 13-24
Essendon 1-12, 13-24, 25-36, SK 1-12

Normally I would think Adelaide would be good things however they are coming off a byr with 4 enforced changes (injuries) which does put some doubt on them. Fremantle are a good side and a win would not surprise.

Weather is predicted to be windy and rainy tonight and this could make scoring difficult at the MCG so Hawthorn only 1-36

WCE and Sydney are traditionally very tight battles and can't really pick the winner there.

Essendon look to be good things however SK have copped plenty of heat during the week and with Riewoldt's 200th game they could lift. If am still alive last leg, there is an opportunity to bet back with the advent of the pick your own line bet type.

Percentage 25%.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Golf - US Masters

Nick Watney - 2.6 units to win @ $19 (Sportingbet) Martin Laird - 1.6 units Top UK and Irish @ $14 (Luxbet) Watney pretty pronounced as clear top rater. Super putter, hits it long, been in good form this year. Temperament down the final stretch the only query but he has to break through for a major one day. Laird is a first timer at the Masters and the common thought is you need experience at Augusta to do well, but its not always 100% true. Adam Scott for example had his best performance in a Masters at his first attempt as did guys like Kim, Barnes & Haas - they don't often win but they can perform well. Woods rates well but I just can't have him - too many putting issues for mine and whilst it hasn't been that bad this year, when he gets on the really fast greens he gets found out - like he did at the Oz Masters earlier this year. Cabrera worth an investment at largish odds - proven major performer. Could very well shoot 80, 80 as can be a bit on the inconsistent side. I'd be backing him win only and not even bothering with top 5, top 10 etc. Also no harm in a traduing bet on Quiros @ 170s (betfair). Capable of ripping apart any course on his day.